Can the USA return to pre-COVID-19 normal by July 4?
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Moghadas SM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8172145 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether and when the world can reach herd immunity and return to normal life and a strategy for accelerating vaccination programmes constitute major concerns. We employed Metropolis-Hastings sampling and an epidemic model to design experiments based on the current vaccinations administered and a more equitable vaccine allocation scenario. The results show that most high-income countries can reach herd immunity in less than 1 year, whereas low-income countries should reach this state after more than 3 years. With a more equitable vaccine allocation strategy, global herd immunity can be reached in 2021. However, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants means that an additional 83 days will be needed to reach global herd immunity and that the number of cumulative cases will increase by 113.37% in 2021. With the more equitable vaccine allocation scenario, the number of cumulative cases will increase by only 5.70% without additional vaccine doses. As SARS-CoV-2 variants arise, herd immunity could be delayed to the point that a return to normal life is theoretically impossible in 2021. Nevertheless, a more equitable global vaccine allocation strategy, such as providing rapid vaccine assistance to low-income countries/regions, can improve the prevention of COVID-19 infection even though the virus could mutate.
| S-EPMC9058660 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A surveillance system that uses census tract resolution and the SaTScan prospective space-time scan statistic detected clusters of increasing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test percent positivity in New York City, NY, USA. Clusters included one in which patients attended the same social gathering and another that led to targeted testing and outreach.
| S-EPMC8084513 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 vaccination programs have been initiated in several countries to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as vaccination builds up and how to update priority groups for vaccination in real-time remain key questions for policy makers. To address these questions, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent local outbreaks to escalate to major widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs be capable to keep the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, a vaccination program could reduce up to 99% of COVID-19 burden and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.
| S-EPMC7885929 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimInfection prevention and control (IPC) within residential settings is a central focus of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Youth residential summer camps are an excellent model for such environments and have thus far had mixed results. The aim of this report was to describe the successful implementation of a seven-week overnight summer camp with rapid return to normal activities from June to August 2020.Subjects and methodsThis retrospective study included 427 individuals who traveled from 24 US states. All staff and campers were tested by serial nasopharyngeal PCR tests in the context of strict infection prevention and control (IPC) measures, including cohorts and masking. The entire camp population was isolated from non-camp personnel with special measures for food, supply, and mail delivery.ResultsDuring the two-week staff session, one staff member tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, was isolated, and sent safely off premises. All other campers and staff had three negative PCR tests: 1-8 days before arrival, upon arrival, and 5-6 days after arrival. After these three negative tests, 6 days into camp, most IPCs, including masking, were successfully lifted and a normal camp experience was possible.ConclusionsThese findings indicate that serial PCR-based testing and strict adherence to IPC measures among cohorts can allow for successful assumption of near normal group activities in a residential setting during the COVID-19 pandemic. This result at an overnight summer camp has broad implications for similar residential communities such as boarding schools, other youth education and development programs, as well as nursing homes and military installations.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01597-9.
| S-EPMC8412395 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST563 | biostudies-other
Project description:PurposeAs surgical specialties now begin the graduated return to elective activity and face-to-face clinics, this paper investigates the current head and neck outpatient practices across the United Kingdom.MethodsA cross-sectional study comprised of an online 20-item survey was distributed to members of the British Association of Head & Neck Oncologists (BAHNO). The survey was open on a web-based platform and covered topics including safety measures for patients, protective equipment for healthcare staff and protocols for the use of flexible nasendoscopy in the clinic.ResultsThe survey was completed by 117 participants covering 66 NHS Trusts across the UK. There was a significant reduction in face-to-face Otolaryngology, Maxillofacial and Speech and Language clinic patients when compared to pre-pandemic numbers (p < 0.0001). Risk assessments for flexible nasendoscopy were done for 69% of clinics and 58% had an established protocol. Room downtime after flexible nasendoscopy ranged from 0 to 6 h and there was a significant increase in allocated downtime after a patient had coughed/sneezed (p < 0.001). Natural ventilation existed in 36% of clinics and the majority of responders didn't know the Air Change Per Hour (ACPH) of the clinic room (77%). Where ACPH was known, it often did not match the allocated room downtime.ConclusionThere is a wide variation in outpatient activity across the United Kingdom, but adaptations are being made to try and maintain staff and patient safety. However, more can still be done by liaising with allied teams to clarify outpatient protocols.
| S-EPMC7647194 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundExposure to COVID-19 is more likely among certain occupations compared with others. This descriptive study seeks to explore occupational differences in mortality due to COVID-19 among workers in Massachusetts.MethodsDeath certificates of those who died from COVID-19 in Massachusetts between March 1 and July 31, 2020 were collected. Occupational information was coded and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated according to occupation.ResultsThere were 555 deaths among MA residents of age 16-64, with usable occupation information, resulting in an age-adjusted mortality rate of 16.4 per 100,000 workers. Workers in 11 occupational groups including healthcare support and transportation and material moving had mortality rates higher than that for workers overall. Hispanic and Black workers had age-adjusted mortality rates more than four times higher than that for White workers overall and also had higher rates than Whites within high-risk occupation groups.ConclusionEfforts should be made to protect workers in high-risk occupations identified in this report from COVID-19 exposure.
| S-EPMC8013546 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe mitigation efforts in the USA to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 infections have led to a massive rise in unemployment, social disruption, and appear to be leading to a severe economic depression. In contrast, no such interventions were regarded as necessary to manage seasonal influenza in 2019-2020. Another mitigation approach is proposed for COVID-19 that would allow society to function and yet should still be effective.
| S-EPMC7276496 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent exposure to seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs) may stimulate cross-reactive antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2. Previous studies have shown divergent results regarding protective or damaging immunity induced by prior exposure to sCoVs. It is still unknown whether pre-existing humoral immunity may play a role in the vaccine-induced neutralization and antibody responses. In this study, we collected 36 paired sera in healthy volunteers before and after immunization with inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and analyzed the distribution and intensity of pre-existing antibody responses at the epitope level before vaccine immunization, as well as the relationship between pre-existing sCoVs immunity and vaccine-induced neutralization.
2021-10-13 | E-MTAB-11084 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Recent exposure to seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs) may stimulate cross-reactive antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2. Previous studies have shown divergent results regarding protective or damaging immunity induced by prior exposure to sCoVs. It is still unknown whether pre-existing humoral immunity may play a role in the vaccine-induced neutralization and antibody responses. In this study, we collected 36 paired sera in healthy volunteers before and after immunization with inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and analyzed the distribution and intensity of pre-existing antibody responses at the epitope level before vaccine immunization, as well as the relationship between pre-existing sCoVs immunity and vaccine-induced neutralization.
2021-10-29 | E-MTAB-11117 | biostudies-arrayexpress