Clinical frailty score as an independent predictor of outcome in COVID-19 hospitalised patients.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose of the study
We explored potential predictive variables associated with outcomes using baseline clinical parameters of 500 hospitalised patients with COVID -19 in a single centre, UK.Methods
Retrospective study collecting demographic and clinical characteristics of patients admitted at Southend University Hospital from 20th February to 7th May 2020.Results
The mean age of the cohort admitted to hospital with Covid-19 was 69.4 and 58% were over 70. Comorbidities were more frequently observed in non-survivors, whose mean Clinical Frailty Scale was significantly higher (5 vs 3) than survivors, p < 0.001. In addition, mean C-reactive protein was significantly higher.Conclusion
Older and frailer patients with high inflammatory markers were at risk of poor outcomes. Integrated frailty and age-based risk stratification is essential, in addition to monitoring saturation /FiO2 ratio (SFR) and inflammatory markers throughout the disease course to allow for early intervention to improve patient outcomes. A frailty-based risk-stratification approach, rather than age may prove more valuable when considering interventions in patients with multiple comorbidities.
SUBMITTER: Koduri G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8175234 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesFrailty can be used as a predictor of adverse outcomes in people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of the study was to analyse the prognostic value of two different frailty scores in patients hospitalised for COVID-19.Material and methodsThis retrospective cohort study included adult (≥18 years) inpatients with COVID-19 and took place from 3 March to 2 May 2020. Patients were categorised by Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were tocilizumab treatment, length of hospital stay, admission in intensive care unit (ICU) and need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Results were analysed by multivariable logistic regression and expressed as odds ratios (ORs), adjusting for age, sex, kidney function and comorbidity.ResultsOf the 290 included patients, 54 were frail according to the CFS (≥5 points; prevalence 18.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.4-23.7) vs 65 by HFRS (≥5 points; prevalence: 22.4%, 95% CI 17.8-27.7). Prevalence of frailty increased with age according to both measures: 50-64 years, CFS 1.9% vs HFRS 12.3%; 65-79 years, CFS 31.5% vs HFRS 40.0%; and ≥80 years, CFS 66.7% vs HFRS 40.0% (P < .001). CFS-defined frailty was independently associated with risk of death (OR 3.67, 95% CI 1.49-9.04) and less treatment with tocilizumab (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.08-0.93). HFRS-defined frailty was independently associated with length of hospital stay over 10 days (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.53-5.44), ICU admission (OR 4.18, 95% CI 1.84-9.52) and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 5.93, 95% CI 2.33-15.10).ConclusionIn the spring 2020 wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, CFS-defined frailty was an independent predictor for death, while frailty as measured by the HFRS was associated with length of hospital stay over 10 days, ICU admission and use of invasive mechanical ventilation.
| S-EPMC8420333 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have been shown to be excellent disease diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers in a wide range of chronic and acute inflammatory and infectious diseases including viral respiratory infection. Crucially, circulating miRNA levels are thought to reflect the state of the diseased tissue. Despite their proven value as mechanism-based clinical stratification indicators, miRNAs have only started being explored in the context of COVID-19. here, we aimed to explore whether integrating miRNA with other clinical and biological measurements would reveal more accurate correlates of COVID-19 severity and outcome, and to identify severity-specific correlations of miRNAs with COVID-19-associated inflammatory mediators, clinical parameters, and otucome.
2021-12-09 | GSE189610 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundThe National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is a scoring tool predictive of poor outcome in hospitalised patients. Older patients with COVID-19 have increased risk of poor outcome, but it is not known if frailty may impact the predictive performance of NEWS2. We aimed to investigate the impact of frailty on the performance of NEWS2 to predict in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised due to COVID-19.MethodsWe included all patients admitted to a non-university Norwegian hospital due to COVID-19 from 9 March 2020 until 31 December 2021. NEWS2 was scored based on the first vital signs recorded upon hospital admission. Frailty was defined as a Clinical Frailty Scale score ≥ 4. The performance of a NEWS2 score ≥ 5 to predict in-hospital mortality was assessed with sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) according to frailty status.ResultsOut of 412 patients, 70 were aged ≥ 65 years and with frailty. They presented less frequently with respiratory symptoms, and more often with acute functional decline or new-onset confusion. In-hospital mortality was 6% in patients without frailty, and 26% in patients with frailty. NEWS2 predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 86%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 64%-97% and AUROC 0.73, 95% CI 0.65-0.81 in patients without frailty. In older patients with frailty, sensitivity was 61%, 95% CI 36%-83% and AUROC 0.61, 95% CI 0.48-0.75.ConclusionA single NEWS2 score at hospital admission performed poorly to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with frailty and COVID-19 and should be used with caution in this patient group. Graphical abstract summing up study design, results and conclusion.
| S-EPMC9994778 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhile several parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline might help early risk stratification. We determined the ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict poor outcomes among adults with COVID-19.MethodsA prospective study was conducted on 399 hospitalised adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between August and December 2020. Baseline NEWS2 score was determined. Primary outcome was poor outcomes defined as need for mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days. The sensitivity, specificity and Area under the curve were determined for NEWS2 scores of 5 and 6.ResultsMean age of patients was 55.5 ± 14.8 years and 275 of 399 (68.9%) were male. Overall mortality was 3.8% and 7.5% had poor outcomes. Median (interquartile range) NEWS2 score at admission was 2 (0-6). Sensitivity and specificity of NEWS 2 of 5 or more in predicting poor outcomes was 93.3% (95% CI: 76.5-98.8) and 70.7% (95% CI: 65.7-75.3) respectively [area under curve 0.88 (95% CI: 0.847-0.927)]. Age, baseline pulse rate, baseline oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen and ARDS on chest X ray were independently associated with poor outcomes.ConclusionsNEWS2 score of 5 or more at admission predicts poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. Further studies are needed in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and recommend widespread use.
| S-EPMC8673675 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1269 | biostudies-other
Project description:AbstractAged population with comorbidities demonstrated high mortality rate and severe clinical outcome in the patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, whether age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index score (CCIS) predict fatal outcomes remains uncertain.This retrospective, nationwide cohort study was performed to evaluate patient mortality and clinical outcome according to CCIS among the hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection. We included 5621 patients who had been discharged from isolation or had died from COVID-19 by April 30, 2020. The primary outcome was composites of death, admission to intensive care unit, use of mechanical ventilator or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The secondary outcome was mortality. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate CCIS as the independent risk factor for death.Among 5621 patients, the high CCIS (≥ 3) group showed higher proportion of elderly population and lower plasma hemoglobin and lower lymphocyte and platelet counts. The high CCIS group was an independent risk factor for composite outcome (HR 3.63, 95% CI 2.45-5.37, P < .001) and patient mortality (HR 22.96, 95% CI 7.20-73.24, P < .001). The nomogram showed that CCIS was the most important factor contributing to the prognosis followed by the presence of dyspnea (hazard ratio [HR] 2.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.16-3.83), low body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 (HR 2.36, CI 1.49-3.75), lymphopenia (<0.8 x109/L) (HR 2.15, CI 1.59-2.91), thrombocytopenia (<150.0 x109/L) (HR 1.29, CI 0.94-1.78), anemia (<12.0 g/dL) (HR 1.80, CI 1.33-2.43), and male sex (HR 1.76, CI 1.32-2.34). The nomogram demonstrated that the CCIS was the most potent predictive factor for patient mortality.The predictive nomogram using CCIS for the hospitalized patients with COVID-19 may help clinicians to triage the high-risk population and to concentrate limited resources to manage them.
| S-EPMC8104192 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in patients with first acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The CHA2DS2-VASc score was initially developed to assess the risk of stroke in patients with AF. Recently, this scoring system has been demonstrated to have clinical value for predicting long-term clinical outcomes in AIS but the evidence is insufficient. This large-scale prospective cohort study investigated the independent predictive value of the score in such patients.MethodsWe included patients with AIS from the Taiwan Stroke Registry (TSR) during 2006-2016 as the present study population. Patients were divided into those with high (≥2) and low (<2) CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We further analyzed and classified patients according to the presence of AF. The clinical endpoint was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) at 1 year after the index AIS.ResultsA total of 62,227 patients with AIS were enrolled. The median age was 70.3 years, and 59% of the patients were women. After confounding factors were controlled, patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc scores had significantly higher incidence of 1-year MACCEs (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52, 1.76), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.16, 1.42), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.83, 2.24) than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores did. In the comparison between AF and non-AF groups, the AF group had increased MACCEs (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.60, 1.89), myocardial infarction (adjusted HR = 4.86; 95% CI = 2.07, 11.4), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.26, 1.71), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.72, 2.10). The Kaplan-Meier curve revealed that both CHA2DS2-VASc scores and AF were independent risk predictors for 1-year MACCEs and mortality.ConclusionsThe CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF appeared to consistently predict 1-year MACCEs of AIS patients and provide more accurate risk stratification. Therefore, increased use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score may help improve the holistic clinical assessment of AIS patients with or without AF.
| S-EPMC9278736 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Global healthcare systems are challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need to optimize allocation of treatment and resources in intensive care, as clinically established risk assessments such as SOFA and APACHE II scores show only limited performance for predicting the survival of severely ill COVID-19 patients. Comprehensively capturing the host physiology, we speculated that proteomics in combination with new data-driven analysis strategies could produce a new generation of prognostic discriminators. We studied two independent cohorts of patients with severe COVID-19 who required intensive care and invasive mechanical ventilation. SOFA score, Charlson comorbidity index and APACHE II score were poor predictors of survival. Instead, using plasma proteomes quantifying 302 plasma protein groups at 387 timepoints in 57 critically ill patients on invasive mechanical ventilation, we found 14 proteins that showed trajectories different between survivors and non-survivors. A proteomic predictor trained on single samples obtained at the first time point at maximum treatment level (i.e. WHO grade 7) and weeks before the outcome, achieved accurate classification of survivors (AUROC 0.81, n=49). We tested the established predictor on an independent validation cohort (AUROC of 1.0, n=24). The majority of proteins with high relevance in the prediction model belong to the coagulation system and complement cascade. Our study demonstrates that predictors derived from plasma protein levels have the potential to substantially outperform current prognostic markers in intensive care.
2022-03-03 | PXD029009 | Pride
Project description:Background: Lung injury is a common condition among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, whether lung ultrasound (LUS) score predicts all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19 is unknown. The aim of the present study was to explore the predictive value of lung ultrasound score for mortality in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Patients with COVID-19 who underwent lung ultrasound were prospectively enrolled from three hospitals in Wuhan, China between February 2020 and March 2020. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected from digital patient records. Lung ultrasound scores were analyzed offline by two observers. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results: Of the 402 patients, 318 (79.1%) had abnormal lung ultrasound. Compared with survivors (n = 360), non-survivors (n = 42) presented with more B2 lines, pleural line abnormalities, pulmonary consolidation, and pleural effusion (all p < 0.05). Moreover, non-survivors had higher global and anterolateral lung ultrasound score than survivors. In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, areas under the curve were 0.936 and 0.913 for global and anterolateral lung ultrasound score, respectively. A cutoff value of 15 for global lung ultrasound score had a sensitivity of 92.9% and specificity of 85.3%, and 9 for anterolateral score had a sensitivity of 88.1% and specificity of 83.3% for prediction of death. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that both global and anterolateral scores were strong predictors of death (both p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that global lung ultrasound score was an independent predictor (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.16; p = 0.03) of death together with age, male sex, C-reactive protein, and creatine kinase-myocardial band. Conclusion: Lung ultrasound score as a semiquantitative tool can be easily measured by bedside lung ultrasound. It is a powerful predictor of in-hospital mortality and may play a crucial role in risk stratification of patients with COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8185027 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting.ObjectiveThe aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands.MethodsThis was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.ResultsA total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)).ConclusionsThe in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.
| S-EPMC7929372 | biostudies-literature