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Prognostic Model to Predict Postoperative Adverse Events in Pediatric Patients With Aortic Coarctation.

ABSTRACT: Background: Postoperative adverse events remain excessively high in surgical patients with coarctation of aorta (CoA). Currently, there is no generally accepted strategy to predict these patients' individual outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk model for the prediction of postoperative risk in pediatric patients with CoA. Methods: In total, 514 patients with CoA at two centers were enrolled. Using daily clinical practice data, we developed a model to predict 30-day or in-hospital adverse events after the operation. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach was applied to select predictor variables and logistic regression was used to develop the model. Model performance was estimated using the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the calibration plot. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) compared with existing risk strategies were assessed. Results: Postoperative adverse events occurred in 195 (37.9%) patients in the overall population. Nine predictive variables were identified, including incision of left thoracotomy, preoperative ventilation, concomitant ventricular septal defect, preoperative cardiac dysfunction, severe pulmonary hypertension, height, weight-for-age z-score, left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular posterior wall thickness. A multivariable logistic model [area under the curve = 0.8195 (95% CI: 0.7514-0.8876)] with adequate calibration was developed. Model performance was significantly improved compared with the existing Aristotle Basic Complexity (ABC) score (NRI = 47.3%, IDI = 11.5%) and the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) (NRI = 75.0%, IDI = 14.9%) in the validation set. Conclusion: Using daily clinical variables, we generated and validated an easy-to-apply postoperative risk model for patients with CoA. This model exhibited a remarkable improvement over the ABC score and the RACHS-1 method.

SUBMITTER: Gu Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8175771 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study aimed to explore aortic morphology and the associations between morphological features and cardiovascular function in a population of patients with bicuspid aortic valve, while further assessing differences between patients with repaired coarctation, patients with unrepaired coarctation and patients without coarctation.MethodsThis is a single-centre retrospective study that included patients with available cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging data and native bicuspid aortic valve diagnosis (n = 525). A statistical shape analysis was performed on patients with a 3-dimensional magnetic imaging resonance (MRI) dataset (n = 108), deriving 3-dimensional aortic reconstructions and computing a mean aortic shape (template) for the whole population as well as for the 3 subgroups of interest (no coarctation, repaired coarctation and unrepaired coarctation). Shape deformations (modes) were computed and correlated with demographic variables, 2-dimensional MRI measurements and volumetric and functional data.ResultsOverall, the results showed that patients with coarctation tended towards a more Gothic arch architecture, with decreased ascending and increased descending aorta diameters, with the unrepaired-aortic coarctation subgroup exhibiting more ascending aorta dilation. Careful assessment of patients with repaired coarctation only revealed that a more Gothic arch, increased descending aorta dimensions and ascending aorta dilation were associated with reduced ejection fraction (P ≤ 0.04), increased end-diastolic volume (P ≤ 0.04) and increased ventricular mass (P ≤ 0.02), with arch morphology distinguishing patients with and without recoarctation (P = 0.05).ConclusionsA statistical shape modelling framework was applied to a bicuspid aortic valve population revealing nuanced differences in arch morphology and demonstrating that morphological features, not immediately described by conventional measurements, can indicate those shape phenotypes associated with compromised function and thus possibly warranting closer follow-up.

Project description:Background and objectivesMajor adverse kidney events, a composite of death, new kidney replacement therapy, or persistent kidney dysfunction, is a potential patient-centered outcome for clinical trials in sepsis-associated kidney injury. We sought to determine the incidence of major adverse kidney events within 30 days and validate this end point in pediatric sepsis.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe conducted a retrospective observational study using the Pediatric Health Information Systems Plus database of patients >6 months to <18 years old with a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock; orders for bacterial blood culture, antibiotics, and at least one fluid bolus on hospital day 0/1; and known hospital disposition between January 2007 and December 2011. The primary outcome was incidence of major adverse kidney events within 30 days. Major adverse kidney events within 30 days were validated against all-cause mortality at hospital discharge, hospital length of stay, total hospital costs, hospital readmission within 30 days and 1 year, and lowest eGFR between 3 months and 1 year after discharge. We reported incidence of major adverse kidney events within 30 days with 95% confidence intervals using robust SEM and used multivariable logistic regression to test the association of major adverse kidney events within 30 days with hospital costs and mortality.ResultsOf 1685 admissions, incidence of major adverse kidney events within 30 days was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 8.1% to 11.0%), including 4.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.5% to 5.4%) death, 1.7% (95% confidence interval, 1.1% to 2.3%) kidney replacement therapy, and 5.8% (95% confidence interval, 4.7% to 6.9%) persistent kidney dysfunction. Patients with versus without major adverse kidney events within 30 days had higher all-cause mortality at hospital discharge (28% versus 1%; P<0.001), higher total hospital costs ($61,188; interquartile range, $21,272-140,356 versus $28,107; interquartile range, $13,056-72,697; P<0.001), and higher proportion with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 between 3 months and 1 year after discharge (19% versus 4%; P=0.001). Major adverse kidney events within 30 days was not associated with length of stay or readmissions.ConclusionsIn children with sepsis, major adverse kidney events within 30 days are common, feasible to measure, and a promising end point for future clinical trials.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Surgery for aortic coarctation requires special care during anesthesia due to severe pain during the lateral thoracotomy incision, intraoperative hemodynamic instability and the need for large doses of intra- and postoperative analgesics and vasodilators. Additionally, the postoperative care of patients is very important. AIMS:We aimed to compare ultrasound-guided paravertebral block performed using bupivacaine alone and bupivacaine with dexamethasone in terms of the intra- and postoperative analgesic requirements and hemodynamics, postoperative complications and ICU stay. STUDY DESIGN:This was a prospective, randomized, controlled, double-blinded study. METHODS:Fifty patients aged four to 12?months scheduled for aortic coarctation surgery were randomly divided into two equal groups (n?=?25). Patients in group D (dexamethasone) received 0.5?mg/kg bupivacaine 0.25% mixed with 0.1?mg/kg dexamethasone diluted with isotonic saline and those in group C (control) received 0.5?mg/kg bupivacaine 0.25% diluted with isotonic saline (total volume 15?ml in each group). Intraoperative fentanyl consumption and hemodynamics (heart rate, arterial blood pressure) at baseline, 1?min after induction, at skin incision, after 30?min, after clamping, after declamping and at the end of the surgery were recorded, along with the objective pain score (OPS) immediately postoperatively and at 4?h, 8?h, 12?h and 24?h postoperatively and the time to the first request for pethidine. The intra- and postoperative vasodilator doses, time to extubation, ICU stay duration and postoperative complications were also recorded. RESULTS:The postoperative OPS was significantly lower at 12 and 24?h in group D than in group C. The time to the first request for analgesia was significantly longer in group D than in group C (3.9?±?2.23 vs 8.6?±?0.69). Additionally, the time to extubation was significantly shorter in group D. CONCLUSION:The use of dexamethasone as an adjuvant in ultrasound-guided paravertebral block in paediatric patients undergoing surgery for aortic coarctation increased the duration of postoperative analgesia with a prolonged time to the first request for analgesics It was also associated with a decreased incidence of postoperative complications. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Trial registration number: NCT03074773 . (Prospectively registered). The initial registration date was 9/3/2017.

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Prognostic Model to Predict Postoperative Adverse Events in Pediatric Patients With Aortic Coarctation.

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