External validation of a claims-based model to predict left ventricular ejection fraction class in patients with heart failure.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Ejection fraction (EF) is an important prognostic factor in heart failure (HF), but administrative claims databases lack information on EF. We previously developed a model to predict EF class from Medicare claims. Here, we evaluated the performance of this model in an external validation sample of commercial insurance enrollees.Methods
Truven MarketScan claims linked to electronic medical records (EMR) data (IBM Explorys) containing EF measurements were used to identify a cohort of US patients with HF between 01-01-2012 and 10-31-2019. By applying the previously developed model, patients were classified into HF with reduced EF (HFrEF) or preserved EF (HFpEF). EF values recorded in EMR data were used to define gold-standard HFpEF (LVEF ≥45%) and HFrEF (LVEF<45%). Model performance was reported in terms of overall accuracy, positive predicted values (PPV), and sensitivity for HFrEF and HFpEF.Results
A total of 7,001 HF patients with an average age of 71 years were identified, 1,700 (24.3%) of whom had HFrEF. An overall accuracy of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80-0.82) was seen in this external validation sample. For HFpEF, the model had sensitivity of 0.96 (95%CI, 0.95-0.97) and PPV of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.81-0.82); while for HFrEF, the sensitivity was 0.32 (95%CI, 0.30-0.34) and PPV was 0.73 (95%CI, 0.69-0.76). These results were consistent with what was previously published in US Medicare claims data.Conclusions
The successful validation of the Medicare claims-based model provides evidence that this model may be used to identify patient subgroups with specific EF class in commercial claims databases as well.
SUBMITTER: Mahesri M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8177622 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Aims: Evidence-based guidelines for heart failure management depend mainly on current left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, fewer studies have examined the impact of prior LVEF. Patients may enter the heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) category when heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) deteriorates or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) improves. In this study, we examined the association between change in LVEF and adverse outcomes. Methods: HFmrEF patients with at least two or more echocardiograms 3 months apart at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University between September 1, 2015 and November 30, 2019 were identified. According to the prior LVEF, the subjects were divided into improved group (prior LVEF < 40%), stable group (prior LVEF between 40 and 50%), and deteriorated group (prior LVEF ≥ 50%). The primary outcomes were cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, hospitalization for worsening heart failure, and composite event of all-cause mortality or all-cause hospitalization. Results: A total of 1,168 HFmrEF patients (67.04% male, mean age 63.60 ± 12.18 years) were included. The percentages of improved, stable, and deteriorated group were 310 (26.54%), 334 (28.60%), and 524 (44.86%), respectively. After a period of follow-up, 208 patients (17.81%) died and 500 patients met the composite endpoint. The rates of all-cause mortality were 35 (11.29%), 55 (16.47%), and 118 (22.52%), and the composite outcome was 102 (32.90%), 145 (43.41%), and 253 (48.28%) for the improved, stable, and deteriorated groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that the deterioration group had higher risk of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.707, 95% CI: 1.064-2.739, P = 0.027), all-cause death (HR 1.948, 95% CI 1.335-2.840, P = 0.001), and composite outcome (HR 1.379, 95% CI 1.096-1.736, P = 0.006) compared to the improvement group. The association still remained significant after fully adjusted for both all-cause mortality (HR = 1.899, 95% CI 1.247-2.893, P = 0.003) and composite outcome (HR: 1.324, 95% CI: 1.020-1.718, P = 0.035). Conclusion: HFmrEF patients are heterogeneous with three different subsets identified, each with different outcomes. Strategies for managing HFmrEF should include previously measured LVEF to allow stratification based on direction changes in LVEF to better optimize treatment.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Heart failure (HF) is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, and post-stroke disability. However, differing definitions and application of HF-criteria may impact model prediction. We compared the predictive ability of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), a readily available objective echocardiographic index, with clinical HF definitions for functional disability and AF in stroke patients. METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed ischemic stroke patients evaluated between January 2013 and May 2015. Outcomes of interest were: (a) 90-day functional disability (modified Rankin score 3-6) and (b) AF. We compared: (1) LVEF (continuous variable), (2) left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD)-categories (absent to severe), (3) clinical history of HF, and (4) HF/LVSD-categories: (i) HF absent without LVSD, (ii) HF absent with LVSD, (iii) HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and (iv) HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the predictive ability for 90-day disability and AF, respectively. RESULTS:Six hundred eighty five consecutive patients (44.5% female) fulfilled the study criteria and were included. After adjustment, the LVEF was independently associated with 90-day disability (OR .98, 95% CI .96-.99, P?=?.011) with similar predictive ability (area under the curve [AUC]?=?.85) to models including the LVSD-categories (AUC?=?.85), clinically define HF (AUC?=?.86), and HF/LVSD-categories (AUC?=?.86). The LVEF, HF, LVSD-, and HF/LVSD-categories were independently associated with AF (P < .01, each) with similar predictive ability (AUC?=?.74, .74, .73, and .75, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Compared to commonly defined HF definitions, the objectively determined LVEF possesses comparable predictive ability for 90-day disability and AF in stroke patients.
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Project description:Nearly six million people in United States have heart failure. Fifty percent of these people have normal left ventricular (LV) systolic heart function but abnormal diastolic function due to increased LV myocardial stiffness. Most commonly, these patients are elderly women with hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, obesity, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, or obstructive lung disease. The annual mortality rate of these patients is 8%-12% per year. The diagnosis is based on the history, physical examination, laboratory data, echocardiography, and, when necessary, by cardiac catheterization. Patients with obesity, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and volume overload require weight reduction, an exercise program, aggressive control of blood pressure and heart rate, and diuretics. Miniature devices inserted into patients for pulmonary artery pressure monitoring provide early warning of increased pulmonary pressure and congestion. If significant coronary heart disease is present, coronary revascularization should be considered.
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Project description:AimsThe latest guidelines recommended to assess the trajectory of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with heart failure (HF). However, there is limited data on the trajectory of LVEF in real-world settings. In this study, we investigated the frequency and prognostic implications of changes in LVEF trajectory.MethodsPatients were divided into intensified LVEF, static LVEF, and worsening LVEF groups based on the transitions of HF types from baseline to follow-up. The intensified and worsening LVEF groups were further subdivided into mild (≤10% absolute changes of LVEF) and significant (>10% absolute changes of LVEF) increase or decrease groups according to the magnitude of change. The incidences and associations of changes in LVEF with patient outcomes were analyzed.ResultsAmong the 2,429 patients in the study cohort, 38.3% of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and 37.6% of HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) showed an improvement in their LVEF. In contrast, a decline in LVEF was observed in 19.3% of HF patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and 34.9% of those with HFmrEF. Cox regression analysis showed that the intensified LVEF group was associated with a lower risk of composite endpoints, while the worsening LVEF group yielded opposite findings. Subgroup analysis revealed that compared to those with mild changes in LVEF, baseline HFrEF patients with significant increase showed a lower risk of composite outcome, while baseline HFpEF patients were the opposite.ConclusionsThe trajectories of LVEF changes are strongly correlated with outcomes in patients with HF who had prior history of HF admission. The most significant prognostic implications observed in patients with significant LVEF changes. Trajectory LVEF and type of HF changes are useful tools recommended for prognostication.
| S-EPMC10481864 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportancePatients categorized as having heart failure (HF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the midrange between 40% and 50% (HFmrEF) are known to be at increased risk of future events. Although patients can transition into the midrange through either improvement or deterioration in their LVEF, there is limited information available assessing the association of directional change in LVEF with future events. Understanding the association between change in LVEF and the clinical course of patients with HFmrEF would be of value in guiding management strategies.ObjectiveTo determine whether risk of clinical events experienced by patients with HFmrEF varies according to whether LVEF improved or deteriorated into the range of 40% to 50% from previous measurements.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective cohort study, patients were identified from the electronic health records at the UC San Diego Health System who had an LVEF measured between 40% and 50% on transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) performed during the calendar year of 2015 and who also had at least 1 prior TTE for comparison. The clinical course of these patients was then followed from the time of the index TTE through December 2018. Data were analyzed from January to March 2019.Main outcomes and measuresThe composite of all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalization, the composite of cardiovascular mortality and HF hospitalization, and each of the individual components.ResultsOf the 448 patients who were identified with HFmrEF, 278 (62.1%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 67.4 (9.7) years. Left ventricular ejection fraction improved from less than 40% in 157 patients (35.0%), deteriorated from greater than 50% in 224 patients (50.0%), and remained between 40% and 50% over time in 67 patients (15.0%). Compared with patients whose LVEF improved from less than 40% to midrange levels, patients whose LVEF deteriorated from greater than 50% had higher risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.10-1.82; P = .03) and of cardiovascular mortality and HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.08-2.50; P = .02), and these differences persisted after multivariable analysis. Outcomes did not differ significantly between patients whose LVEF improved and those in whom it remained stable.Conclusion and relevanceIn a cohort of patients with HFmrEF from a large academic medical center, the clinical course was strongly influenced by the directional change in LVEF from prior study. Patients whose LVEF deteriorated into midrange levels experienced a significantly higher risk of adverse clinical events than patients whose LVEF had improved. These results suggest that directional change in LVEF from prior measurements should be considered when devising management strategies for patients with HFmrEF.
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Project description:ObjectiveRecent studies have reported suboptimal up-titration of heart failure (HF) therapies in patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Here, we report on the achieved doses after nurse-led up-titration, reasons for not achieving the target dose, subsequent changes in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and mortality.MethodsFrom 2012 to 2018, 378 HFrEF patients with a recent (< 3 months) diagnosis of HF were referred to a specialised HF-nurse led clinic for protocolised up-titration of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). The achieved doses of GDMT at 9 months were recorded, as well as reasons for not achieving the optimal dose in all patients. Echocardiography was performed at baseline and after up-titration in 278 patients.ResultsOf 345 HFrEF patients with a follow-up visit after 9 months, 69% reached ≥ 50% of the recommended dose of renin-angiotensin-system (RAS) inhibitors, 73% reached ≥ 50% of the recommended dose of beta-blockers and 77% reached ≥ 50% of the recommended dose of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. The main reasons for not reaching the target dose were hypotension (RAS inhibitors and beta-blockers), bradycardia (beta-blockers) and renal dysfunction (RAS inhibitors). During a median follow-up of 9 months, mean LVEF increased from 27.6% at baseline to 38.8% at follow-up. Each 5% increase in LVEF was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.84 (0.75-0.94, p = 0.002) for mortality and 0.85 (0.78-0.94, p = 0.001) for the combined endpoint of mortality and/or HF hospitalisation after a mean follow-up of 3.3 years.ConclusionsThis study shows that protocolised up-titration in a nurse-led HF clinic leads to high doses of GDMT and improvement of LVEF in patients with new-onset HFrEF.
| S-EPMC8271074 | biostudies-literature