Dataset Information

Mortality in biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: results from a nationwide cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Population-based data are lacking regarding the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality across the complete histological spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Design

This nationwide, matched cohort study included all individuals in Sweden with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (1966 to 2017; n=10 568). NAFLD was confirmed histologically from all liver biopsies submitted to Sweden's 28 pathology departments, after excluding other etiologies of liver disease, and further categorised as, simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. NAFLD cases were matched to ≤5 general population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=49 925). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Over a median of 14.2 years, 4,338 NAFLD patients died. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall mortality (16.9 vs 28.6/1000 PY; difference=11.7/1000 PY; aHR=1.93, 95% CI=1.86 to 2.00). Compared with controls, significant excess mortality risk was observed with simple steatosis (8.3/1000 PY, aHR=1.71, 95% CI=1.64 to 1.79), non-fibrotic NASH (13.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.14, 95% CI=1.93 to 2.38), non-cirrhotic fibrosis (18.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.44, 95% CI=2.22 to 2.69) and cirrhosis (53.6/1000 PY, aHR=3.79, 95% CI=3.34 to 4.30)(p_trend <0.01). This dose-dependent gradient was similar when simple steatosis was the reference (p_trend <0.01). The excess mortality associated with NAFLD was primarily from extrahepatic cancer (4.5/1000 PY, aHR=2.16, 95% CI=2.03 to 2.30), followed by cirrhosis (2.7/1000 PY, aHR=18.15, 95% CI=14.78 to 22.30), cardiovascular disease (1.4/1000 PY, aHR=1.35, 95% CI=1.26 to 1.44) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1.2/1000 PY, aHR=11.12, 95% CI=8.65 to 14.30).

Conclusion

All NAFLD histological stages were associated with significantly increased overall mortality, and this risk increased progressively with worsening NAFLD histology. Most of this excess mortality was from extrahepatic cancer and cirrhosis, while in contrast, the contributions of cardiovascular disease and HCC were modest.

SUBMITTER: Simon TG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8185553 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background and aimsRecent studies link NAFLD to an increased incidence of HCC and extrahepatic cancers. However, earlier studies were small or lacked liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.Approach and resultsWe conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults with histologically defined NAFLD in Sweden from 1966 to 2016 (N = 8,892). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded liver histopathology submitted to all 28 Swedish pathology departments and categorized as simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis. NAFLD patients were individually matched to ≤5 general population controls without NAFLD by age, sex, calendar year, and county (N = 39,907). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Over a median of 13.8 years, we documented 1,691 incident cancers among NAFLD patients and 6,733 among controls. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall cancer incidence (10.9 vs. 13.8 per 1,000 person-years [PYs]; difference = 2.9 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.18-1.36]), driven primarily by HCC (difference = 1.1 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 17.08 [95% CI, 11.56-25.25]). HCC incidence rates increased monotonically across categories of simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis (0.8 per 1,000 PYs, 1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.3 per 1,000 PYs, and 6.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively; Ptrend < 0.01) and were further amplified by diabetes (1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.9 per 1,000 PYs, 7.2 per 1,000 PYs, and 15.7 per 1,000 PYs, respectively). In contrast, NAFLD was associated with modestly increased rates of pancreatic cancer, kidney/bladder cancer, and melanoma (differences = 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, 0.1 per 1,000 PYs, and 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively), but no other cancers.ConclusionsCompared with controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly increased cancer incidence, attributable primarily to HCC, whereas the contribution of extrahepatic cancers was modest. Although HCC risk was highest with cirrhosis, substantial excess risk was also found with noncirrhotic fibrosis and comorbid diabetes.

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