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Risk score to stratify miscarriage risk levels in preconception women.

ABSTRACT: Spontaneous miscarriage is one of the most common complications of pregnancy. Even though some risk factors are well documented, there is a paucity of risk scoring tools during preconception. In the S-PRESTO cohort study, Asian women attempting to conceive, aged 18-45 years, were recruited. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to determine risk estimates for age, ethnicity, history of pregnancy loss, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake and dietary supplement intake; from these we derived a risk score ranging from 0 to 17. Miscarriage before 16 weeks of gestation, determined clinically or via ultrasound. Among 465 included women, 59 had miscarriages and 406 had pregnancy ≥ 16 weeks of gestation. Higher rates of miscarriage were observed at higher risk scores (5.3% at score ≤ 3, 17.0% at score 4-6, 40.0% at score 7-8 and 46.2% at score ≥ 9). Women with scores ≤ 3 were defined as low-risk level (< 10% miscarriage); scores 4-6 as intermediate-risk level (10% to < 40% miscarriage); scores ≥ 7 as high-risk level (≥ 40% miscarriage). The risk score yielded an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.67, 0.81; p < 0.001). This novel scoring tool allows women to self-evaluate their miscarriage risk level, which facilitates lifestyle changes to optimize modifiable risk factors in the preconception period and reduces risk of spontaneous miscarriage.

SUBMITTER: Choo XH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8187346 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceMaternal thyrotropin levels during gestation have a profound effect on pregnancy outcomes; however, few studies to date have evaluated the importance of preconception thyrotropin levels.ObjectiveTo investigate the associations between preconception thyrotropin levels and pregnancy outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study enrolled Chinese women aged 20 to 49 years from the National Free Prepregnancy Checkups Project in China. Participants conceived within 6 months after the thyrotropin examination and completed follow-up for pregnancy outcomes between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017. Data were analyzed between May 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020.ExposuresLevels of thyrotropin within 6 months before pregnancy, measured as less than 0.10 mIU/L, 0.10 to 0.36 mIU/L, 0.37 to 2.49 mIU/L, 2.50 to 4.87 mIU/L, 4.88 to 9.99 mIU/L, and 10.00 mIU/L or greater.Main outcomes and measuresThe association of maternal preconception thyrotropin levels with the 4 primary adverse pregnancy outcomes was assessed, including preterm birth (PTB), small for gestational age (SGA), birth defect, and perinatal infant death. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between preconception maternal thyrotropin levels and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The dose-response associations were assessed using restricted cubic spline regression.ResultsThis study enrolled 5 840 894 women (mean [SD] age, 26.30 [4.10] years) in the primary analysis. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) thyrotropin level was 1.60 (1.06-2.37) mIU/L. The cumulative incidences for the adverse pregnancy outcomes were as follows: PTB, 6.56%; SGA, 7.21%; birth defect, 0.02%; and perinatal infant death, 0.33%. Compared with the reference group (thyrotropin range, 0.37-2.49 mIU/L), both low (<0.10 mIU/L and 0.10-0.36 mIU/L) and high (4.88-9.99 mIU/L and ≥10.00 mIU/L) maternal preconception thyrotropin levels were associated with higher risk of PTB (low: odds ratio [OR], 1.23 [95% CI, 1.19-1.27] and OR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.13-1.18] vs high: OR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.10-1.15] and OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.20]), SGA (low: OR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.33-1.40] and OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.17] vs high: OR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08] and OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.11-1.23]), and perinatal infant death (low: OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.10-1.43] and OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.05-1.24] vs high: OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.20-1.43] and OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.21-1.80]). J-shaped associations between preconception thyrotropin levels and PTB (χ2 = 1033.45; nonlinear P < .001), SGA (χ2 = 568.90; nonlinear P < .001), and perinatal infant death (χ2 = 38.91; nonlinear P < .001) were identified.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, both low and high maternal thyrotropin levels were associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Results suggest that the optimal preconception thyrotropin levels may be between 0.37 mIU/L and 2.50 mIU/L to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundTo assess whether elevated thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels before conception can predict poor outcomes of assisted reproductive technology (ART).MethodsPrior to July 2018, we searched the PubMed, EMBASE, COCHRANE, Google Scholar, and CNKI databases for studies. Retrospective or prospective reports that compared ART results in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) with normal thyroid function were selected. Two reviewers separately reviewed each potential article for qualification, analyzed the quality of the studies according to the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and extracted the data. The PRISMA guidelines were adopted.ResultsWe selected a total of 18 publications that included 14,846 participants for this meta-analysis. When the TSH cut-off value for SCH was set at 2.5 mIU/L, no significant differences were observed in ART-related outcomes between SCH patients and normal women. The evaluated outcomes included the live birth rate (LBR) (OR: 0.93; 95% CI (0.77,1.12), P = 0.43), clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) (OR:1.02; 95% CI (0.90,1.17); P = 0.74), pregnancy rate (PR) (OR: 1.00; 95% CI (0.89,1.12); P = 0.99), and miscarriage rate (MR) (OR:1.24; 95% CI (0.85, 1.80); P = 0.26). Furthermore, when a higher TSH level was used as the cut-off value to diagnose SCH (i.e., 3.5-5 mIU/L), a significant difference was found in the MR (OR: 1.91; 95% CI (1.09, 3.35); P = 0.02) between the two groups of ART-treated women. However, when a broader cut-off value was used to define SCH, no significant differences were observed in the LBR (OR: 0.72; 95% CI (0.47,1.11); P = 0.14), CPR (OR: 0.82; 95% CI (0.66,1.00); P = 0.052), or PR (OR: 1.07; 95% CI (0.72,1.60); P = 0.74) between the two groups of ART-treated women.ConclusionNo difference was observed in ART outcomes when a TSH cut-off value of 2.5 mIU/L was used. However, when a broader TSH cut-off value was used, preconception SCH resulted in a higher miscarriage rate than in normal women.

Project description:ImportanceAlthough multiple modifiable risk factors have been identified for reduced fecundability (defined as lower probability of conception within a menstrual cycle), no scoring system has been established to systematically evaluate fecundability among females who are attempting to conceive.ObjectiveTo examine the association of a risk score based on 6 modifiable factors with fecundability, and to estimate the percentage reduction in incidence of nonconception if all study participants achieved a minimal risk score level.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study obtained data from the S-PRESTO (Singapore Preconception Study of Long-Term Maternal and Child Outcomes) prospective cohort study. Females of reproductive age who were trying to conceive were enrolled from February 2015 to October 2017 and followed for 1 year, ending in November 2018. Data were analyzed from March to May 2022.ExposuresA reduced fecundability risk score was derived by giving participants 1 point for each of the following factors: unhealthy body mass index, unhealthy diet, smoking, alcohol intake, folic acid supplement nonuser, and older maternal age. Total scores ranged from 0 to 6 and were classified into 5 levels: level 1 (score of 0 or 1), level 2 (score of 2), level 3 (score of 3), level 4 (score of 4), and level 5 (score of 5 or 6).Main outcomes and measuresFecundability, measured by time to conception in cycles, was analyzed using discrete-time proportional hazards models with confounder adjustment.ResultsA total of 937 females (mean [SD] age, 30.8 [3.8] years) were included, among whom 401 (42.8%) spontaneously conceived within 1 year of attempting conception; the median (IQR) number of cycles before conception was 4 (2-7). Compared with participants with a level 1 risk score, those with level 2, 3, 4, and 5 risk scores had reductions in fecundability of 31% (adjusted fecundability ratio [FR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.88), 41% (FR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.45-0.78), 54% (FR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.31-0.69) and 77% (FR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.73), respectively. Assessment of the population attributable fraction showed that all participants achieving a minimal (level 1) risk level would be associated with a reduction of 34% (95% CI, 30%-39%) in nonconception within a year.Conclusions and relevanceResults of this study revealed the co-occurrence of multiple modifiable risk factors for lowered fecundability and a substantially higher conception rate among participants with no or minimal risk factors. The risk assessment scoring system proposed is a simple and potentially useful public health tool for mitigating risks and guiding those who are trying to conceive.

Project description:BackgroundA significant number of chest pain patients had previous cardiac imaging tests (CIT) performed before being presented to the Emergency Department (ED). The HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) score has been used to risk-stratify chest pain patients in the ED, but not particularly for patients with CIT performed. We aim to modify the current HEART score with the addition of most recent CIT findings (referred to as HEART2 score), to predict a 30-day major adverse cardiac event (MACE) among ED chest pain patients, compare the performance accuracy of using HEART versus HEART2 score for 30-day MACE outcome predictions, and further determine the value of HEART2 in a subset group of ED chest pain patients (i.e., ones with previous CIT).MethodsThis is a single-center observational study. We included chest pain patients with HEART scores calculated during their index ED visits. A modified HEART2 score was developed with the addition of CIT findings as one of the HEART2 components. Patients were divided into three groups, including low (≤ 3), moderate (4-6), and high-risk HEART/HEART2 scores (≥ 7). MACE occurrence of a patient with different risks of HEART and HEART2 scores and overall performance accuracy of HEART versus HEART2 score predicting MACE outcomes were compared.ResultsWe included a total of 9419 chest pain patients at ED, among which one out of five patients (1874/9419) had previous CIT performed. Fewer (38.2%) of such patients had low-risk HEART scores in comparison to 55.5% of low-risk HEART2 scores (p < 0.001). The MACE outcomes were similar in low-risk HEART patients compared with low-risk HEART2 patients (2.2% versus 3.1%, p = 0.3021). The overall performance accuracy of using the HEART2 score to stratify chest pain patients with previous CIT was better than using the HEART score's (AUC 0.74 versus 0.71, p = 0.0082).ConclusionsUsing the HEART2 score might be suitable to stratify low-to-moderate risk chest pain patients at ED with a similar 30-days MACE occurrence compared to the HEART score. More importantly, with the use of similar low-risk criteria (HEART2 ≤ 3), over 45% more chest pain patients with previous CIT performed could be discharged directly from ED.

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Risk score to stratify miscarriage risk levels in preconception women.

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