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Improving the Policy Utility of Cause of Death Statistics in Sri Lanka: An Empirical Investigation of Causes of Out-of-Hospital Deaths Using Automated Verbal Autopsy Methods.

ABSTRACT: Background: Setting public health policies and effectively monitoring the impact of health interventions requires accurate, timely and complete cause of death (CoD) data for populations. In Sri Lanka, almost half of all deaths occur outside hospitals, with questionable diagnostic accuracy, thus limiting their information content for policy. Objectives: To ascertain whether SmartVA is applicable in improving the specificity of cause of death data for out-of-hospital deaths in Sri Lanka, and hence enhance the value of these routinely collected data for informing public policy debates. Methods: SmartVA was applied to 2610 VAs collected between January 2017 and March 2019 in 22 health-unit-areas clustered in six districts. Around 350 community-health-workers and 50 supervisory-staffs were trained. The resulting distribution of Cause-Specific-Mortality-Fractions (CSMFs) was compared to data from the Registrar-General's-Department (RGD) for out-of-hospital deaths for the same areas, and to the Global-Burden-of-Disease (GBD) estimates for Sri Lanka. Results: Using SmartVA, for only 15% of deaths could a specific-cause not be assigned, compared with around 40% of out-of-hospital deaths currently assigned garbage codes with "very high" or "high" severity. Stroke (M: 31.6%, F: 35.4%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (M: 13.5%, F: 13.0%) and Chronic Respiratory Diseases (M: 15.4%, F: 10.8%) were identified as the three leading causes of home deaths, consistent with the ranking of GBD-Study for Sri Lanka for all deaths, but with a notably higher CSMF for stroke. Conclusions: SmartVA showed greater diagnostic specificity, applicability, acceptability in the Sri Lankan context. Policy formulation in Sri Lanka would benefit substantially with national-wide implementation of VAs.

SUBMITTER: Mikkelsen L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8187752 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe most common method for determining cause of death is certification by physicians based either on available medical records, or where such data are not available, through verbal autopsy (VA). The physician-certification approach is costly and inconvenient; however, recent work shows the potential of a computer-based probabilistic model (InterVA) to interpret verbal autopsy data in a more convenient, consistent, and rapid way. In this study we validate separately both physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) and the InterVA probabilistic model against hospital cause of death (HCOD) in adults dying in a district hospital on the coast of Kenya.MethodsBetween March 2007 and June 2010, VA interviews were conducted for 145 adult deaths that occurred at Kilifi District Hospital. The VA data were reviewed by a physician and the cause of death established. A range of indicators (including age, gender, physical signs and symptoms, pregnancy status, medical history, and the circumstances of death) from the VA forms were included in the InterVA for interpretation. Cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF), Cohen's kappa (κ) statistic, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were applied to compare agreement between PCVA, InterVA, and HCOD.ResultsHCOD, InterVA, and PCVA yielded the same top five underlying causes of adult deaths. The InterVA overestimated tuberculosis as a cause of death compared to the HCOD. On the other hand, PCVA overestimated diabetes. Overall, CSMF for the five major cause groups by the InterVA, PCVA, and HCOD were 70%, 65%, and 60%, respectively. PCVA versus HCOD yielded a higher kappa value (κ = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48, 0.54) than the InterVA versus HCOD which yielded a kappa (κ) value of 0.32 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.38). Overall, (κ) agreement across the three methods was 0.41 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.48). The areas under the ROC curves were 0.82 for InterVA and 0.88 for PCVA. The observed sensitivities and specificities across the five major causes of death varied from 43% to 100% and 87% to 99%, respectively, for the InterVA/PCVA against the HCOD.ConclusionBoth the InterVA and PCVA compared well with the HCOD at a population level and determined the top five underlying causes of death in the rural community of Kilifi. We hope that our study, albeit small, provides new and useful data that will stimulate further definitive work on methods of interpreting VA data.

Project description:Mortality statistics by age, sex and cause are the foundation of basic health data required for health status assessment, epidemiological research and formation of health policy. Close to half the deaths in Malaysia occur outside a health facility, are not attended by medical personnel, and are given a lay opinion as to the cause of death, leading to poor quality of data from vital registration. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a very useful tool in diagnosing broad causes of deaths for events that occur outside health facilities. This article reports the development of the VA methods and our principal finding from a validation study.A cross sectional study on nationally representative sample deaths that occurred in Malaysia during 2013 was used. A VA questionnaire suitable for local use was developed. Trained field interviewers visited the family members of the deceased at their homes and conducted face to face interviews with the next of kin. Completed questionnaires were reviewed by trained physicians who assigned multiple and underlying causes. Reference diagnoses for validation were obtained from review of medical records (MR) available for a sample of the overall study deaths.Corresponding MR diagnosis with matched sample of the VA diagnosis were available in 2172 cases for the validation study. Sensitivity scores were good (>75%) for transport accidents and certain cancers. Moderate sensitivity (50% - 75%) was obtained for ischaemic heart disease (64%) and cerebrovascular disease (72%). The validation sample for deaths due to major causes such as ischaemic heart disease, pneumonia, breast cancer and transport accidents show low cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) changes. The scores obtained for the top 10 leading site-specific cancers ranged from average to good.We can conclude that VA is suitable for implementation for deaths outside the health facilities in Malaysia. This would reduce ill-defined mortality causes in vital registration data, and yield more accurate national mortality statistics.

Project description:BackgroundNigeria has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world. Identifying the causes of these deaths is crucial to inform changes in policy documents, design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these deaths. This study aimed to provide national and zonal-level estimates of the causes of under-five death in Nigeria in the 2013-2018 periods.MethodsWe conducted retrospective inquiries into the cause of deaths of 948 neonates and 2,127 children aged 1-59 months as identified in the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The verbal autopsy asked about signs and symptoms during the final illness. The Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) and Expert Algorithm Verbal Autopsy (EAVA) methods were employed to assign the immediate and underlying cause of deaths to all cases.ResultFor the analysis, sampling weights were applied to accommodate non-proportional allocation. Boys accounted for 56 percent of neonatal deaths and 51.5 percent of the 1-59-months old deaths. About one-quarter of under-5 mortality was attributed to neonatal deaths, and 50 percent of these neonatal deaths were recorded within 48 h of delivery. Overall, 84 percent of the under-5 deaths were in the northern geopolitical zones. Based on the two methods for case analysis, neonatal infections (sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis) were responsible for 44 percent of the neonatal deaths, followed by intrapartum injury (PCVA: 21 percent vs. EAVA: 29 percent). The three main causes of death in children aged 1-59 months were malaria (PCVA: 23 percent vs. EAVA: 35 percent), diarrhoea (PCVA: 17 percent vs. EAVA: 23 percent), and pneumonia (PCVA: 10 percent vs. EAVA: 12 percent). In the North West, where the majority of under-5 (1-59 months) deaths were recorded, diarrhoea was the main cause of death (PCVA: 24.3 percent vs. EAVA: 30 percent).ConclusionThe causes of neonatal and children aged 1-59 months deaths vary across the northern and southern regions. By homing on the specific causes of mortality by region, the study provides crucial information that may be useful in planning appropriately tailored interventions to significantly reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria.

Project description:IntroductionEach year, more than 10 million children younger than five years of age die. The large majority of these deaths occur in the developing world. The verbal autopsy (VA) is a tool designed to ascertain cause of death in such settings. While VA has been validated against hospital diagnosed cause of death, there has been no research conducted to better understand the factors that may influence individual physicians in determining cause of death from VA.Methodology/principal findingsThis study uses data from over 27,000 neonatal and childhood deaths from The Million Death Study in which 6.3 million people in India were monitored for vital status between 1998 and 2003. The main outcome variable was physician agreement or disagreement of category of death and the variables were assessed for association using the kappa statistic, univariate and multivariate logistic regression using a conceptual hierarchical model, and a sensitivity and specificity analysis using the final VA category of mortality as the gold standard. The main variables found to be significantly associated with increased physician agreement included older ages and male gender of the deceased. When taking into account confounding factors in the multivariate analysis, we did not find consistent significant differences in physician agreement based on the death being in a rural or urban area, at home or in a health care facility, registered or not, or the respondent's gender, religion, relationship to the deceased, or whether or not the respondent lived with the deceased.Conclusions/significanceFactors influencing physician agreement/disagreement to the greatest degree are the gender and age of the deceased; specifically, physicians tend to be less likely to agree on a common category of death in female children and in younger ages, particularly neonates. Additional training of physician reviewers and continued adaptation of the VA itself, with a focus on gender and age of the deceased, may be useful in increasing rates of physician agreement in these groups.

Project description:BackgroundInfant and young child feeding practices (IYCF) play a critical role in growth and development of children. A favourable environment supported by appropriate policies and positive contributions from all stakeholders are prerequisites for achieving optimal IYCF practices. This study aimed to assess the IYCF-related policy environment and role of stakeholders in policy making in Sri Lanka, in order to identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment to better support appropriate IYCF and reduce childhood malnutrition.MethodsWe mapped national level policy-related documents on IYCF, and conducted a stakeholder analysis of IYCF policy making. A matrix was designed to capture data from IYCF policy-related documents using a thematic approach. A narrative synthesis of data from different documents was conducted to achieve the first objective. We then conducted an analysis of technical and funding links of stakeholders who shape IYCF policies and programmes in Sri Lanka using the Net-Map technique, to achieve the second objective. A total of 35 respondents were purposively selected based on their knowledge on the topic, and individual interviews were conducted.ResultsTwenty four policies were identified that contained provisions in line with global recommendations for best-practice IYCF, marketing of breast milk substitutes, strengthening health and non-health systems, maternity benefits, inter-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, health education and supplementation. However, there is no separate, written policy on IYCF in Sri Lanka. Participants identified 56 actors involved in shaping IYCF policies and programmes through technical support, and 36 through funding support. The Government Health Sector was the most connected as well as influential, followed by development partners. Almost all actors in the networks were supportive for IYCF policies and programmes.Conclusions and recommendationsAll evidence-based recommendations are covered in related policies. However, advocacy should be targeted towards strategic support for IYCF in high-level policy documents. The stakeholder analysis confirmed a network led by the government health sector. Enhancing the multi-sectoral commitments stressed in policy documents is an opportunity to strengthen IYCF policy process in Sri Lanka.

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Improving the Policy Utility of Cause of Death Statistics in Sri Lanka: An Empirical Investigation of Causes of Out-of-Hospital Deaths Using Automated Verbal Autopsy Methods.

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