XGBoost based machine learning approach to predict the risk of fall in older adults using gait outcomes.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Noh B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8190134 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Prior research has suggested that measurements of brain functioning and performance on dual tasks (tasks which require simultaneous performance) are promising candidate predictors of fall risk among older adults. However, no prior study has investigated whether brain function measurements during dual task performance could improve prediction of fall risks and whether the type of subtasks used in the dual task paradigm affects the strength of the association between fall characteristics and dual task performance. In this study, 31 cognitively normal, community-dwelling older adults provided a self-reported fall profile (number of falls and fear of falling), completed a gait dual task (spell a word backward while walking on a GaitRite mat), and completed a supine dual task (rhythmic finger tapping with one hand while completing the AX continuous performance task (AX-CPT) with the other hand) during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Gait performance, AX-CPT reaction time and accuracy, finger tapping cadence, and brain functioning in finger-tapping-related and AX-CPT-related brain regions all showed declines in the dual task condition compared to the single task condition. Dual-task gait, AX-CPT and finger tapping performance, and brain functioning were all independent predictors of fall profile. No particular measurement domain stood out as being the most strongly associated measure with fall variables. Fall characteristics are determined by multiple factors; brain functioning, motor task, and cognitive task performance in challenging dual-task conditions all contribute to the risk of falling.
| S-EPMC7935539 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This article presents a five-part dataset for human gait analysis in a healthy older adult population (37 women and seven men; age 69.98 ± 8.57 years, body mass index 27.71 ± 4.57). Part 1 compromises demographic data for the 44 participants, along with the results of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) motor function test and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). We used the MMSE to ensure the participants could understand the experimental protocol instructions. Part 2 presents the anthropometric measurements of the participants. Part 3 shows the results for each item of the Gait component of the Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA-G). Part 4 contains five files per participant, storing motion-capture data for the lower limb in the Coordinate 3D (C3D) format. These files were generated using a Vicon motion analysis system, consisting of 24 reflective markers and seven cameras (Vantage V5) sampled at 100?Hz. Part 5 contains 26 gait parameters for each C3D file obtained using Nexus 2.9.3. The dataset is available in a Mendeley repository (Reserved DOI: 10.17632/xgw6bg3g8h.1).
| S-EPMC7701341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gait and physical fitness are related to cognitive function. A decrease in motor function and physical fitness can serve as an indicator of declining global cognitive function in older adults. This study aims to use machine learning (ML) to identify important features of gait and physical fitness to predict a decline in global cognitive function in older adults. A total of three hundred and six participants aged seventy-five years or older were included in the study, and their gait performance at various speeds and physical fitness were evaluated. Eight ML models were applied to data ranked by the p-value (LP) of linear regression and the importance gain (XI) of XGboost. Five optimal features were selected using elastic net on the LP data for men, and twenty optimal features were selected using support vector machine on the XI data for women. Thus, the important features for predicting a potential decline in global cognitive function in older adults were successfully identified herein. The proposed ML approach could inspire future studies on the early detection and prevention of cognitive function decline in older adults.
| S-EPMC8582857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdvances in computational algorithms and the availability of large datasets with clinically relevant characteristics provide an opportunity to develop machine learning prediction models to aid in diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of older adults. Some studies have employed machine learning methods for prediction modeling, but skepticism of these methods remains due to lack of reproducibility and difficulty in understanding the complex algorithms that underlie models. We aim to provide an overview of two common machine learning methods: decision tree and random forest. We focus on these methods because they provide a high degree of interpretability.MethodWe discuss the underlying algorithms of decision tree and random forest methods and present a tutorial for developing prediction models for serious fall injury using data from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study.ResultsDecision tree is a machine learning method that produces a model resembling a flow chart. Random forest consists of a collection of many decision trees whose results are aggregated. In the tutorial example, we discuss evaluation metrics and interpretation for these models. Illustrated using data from the LIFE study, prediction models for serious fall injury were moderate at best (area under the receiver operating curve of 0.54 for decision tree and 0.66 for random forest).ConclusionsMachine learning methods offer an alternative to traditional approaches for modeling outcomes in aging, but their use should be justified and output should be carefully described. Models should be assessed by clinical experts to ensure compatibility with clinical practice.
| S-EPMC8011704 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Predictions of patient outcomes after a given therapy are fundamental to medical practice. We employ a machine learning approach towards predicting the outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs). Using three prospective databases, a machine learning approach of feature engineering and model optimization was implemented to create the most accurate predictor of AVM outcomes. Existing prognostic systems were scored for purposes of comparison. The final predictor was secondarily validated on an independent site's dataset not utilized for initial construction. Out of 1,810 patients, 1,674 to 1,291 patients depending upon time threshold, with 23 features were included for analysis and divided into training and validation sets. The best predictor had an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 compared to existing clinical systems of 0.63 across all time points. On the heldout dataset, the predictor had an accuracy of around 0.74 at across all time thresholds with a specificity and sensitivity of 62% and 85% respectively. This machine learning approach was able to provide the best possible predictions of AVM radiosurgery outcomes of any method to date, identify a novel radiobiological feature (3D surface dose), and demonstrate a paradigm for further development of prognostic tools in medical care.
| S-EPMC4746661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Frail older adults have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes and premature death. They also exhibit altered gait characteristics in comparison with healthy individuals. Methods: In this study, we created a Fried's frailty phenotype (FFP) labelled casual walking video set of older adults based on the West China Health and Aging Trend study. A series of hyperparameters in machine vision models were evaluated for body key point extraction (AlphaPose), silhouette segmentation (Pose2Seg, DPose2Seg, and Mask R-CNN), gait feature extraction (Gaitset, LGaitset, and DGaitset), and feature classification (AlexNet and VGG16), and were highly optimised during analysis of gait sequences of the current dataset. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) at the physical frailty state identification task for AlexNet was 0.851 (0.827-0.8747) and 0.901 (0.878-0.920) in macro and micro, respectively, and was 0.855 (0.834-0.877) and 0.905 (0.886-0.925) for VGG16 in macro and micro, respectively. Furthermore, this study presents the machine vision method equipped with better predictive performance globally than age and grip strength, as well as than 4-m-walking-time in healthy and pre-frailty classifying. Conclusion: The gait analysis method in this article is unreported and provides promising original tool for frailty and pre-frailty screening with the characteristics of convenience, objectivity, rapidity, and non-contact. These methods can be extended to any gait-related disease identification processes, as well as in-home health monitoring.
| S-EPMC8637841 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The primary purpose of this study was to systematically evaluate and compare the predictive power of falls for a battery of stability indices, obtained during normal walking among community-dwelling older adults. One hundred and eighty seven community-dwelling older adults participated in the study. After walking regularly for 20 strides on a walkway, participants were subjected to an unannounced slip during gait under the protection of a safety harness. Full body kinematics and kinetics were monitored during walking using a motion capture system synchronized with force plates. Stability variables, including feasible-stability-region measurement, margin of stability, the maximum Floquet multiplier, the Lyapunov exponents (short- and long-term), and the variability of gait parameters (including the step length, step width, and step time), were calculated for each subject. Sensitivity of predicting slip outcome (fall vs. recovery) was examined for each stability variable using logistic regression. Results showed that the feasible-stability-region measurement predicted fall incidence among these subjects with the highest sensitivity (68.4%). Except for the step width (with an sensitivity of 60.2%), no other stability variables could differentiate fallers from those who did not fall for the sample included in this study. The findings from the present study could provide guidance to identify individuals at increased risk of falling using the feasible-stability-region measurement or variability of the step width.
| S-EPMC4469383 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality in-hospital, especially in ICU patients. Early prediction of sepsis is essential, as prompt and appropriate treatment can improve survival outcomes. Machine learning methods are flexible prediction algorithms with potential advantages over conventional regression and scoring system. The aims of this study were to develop a machine learning approach using XGboost to predict the 30-days mortality for MIMIC-III Patients with sepsis-3 and to determine whether such model performs better than traditional prediction models.Methods: Using the MIMIC-III v1.4, we identified patients with sepsis-3. The data was split into two groups based on death or survival within 30 days and variables, selected based on clinical significance and availability by stepwise analysis, were displayed and compared between groups. Three predictive models including conventional logistic regression model, SAPS-II score prediction model and XGBoost algorithm model were constructed by R software. Then, the performances of the three models were tested and compared by AUCs of the receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis. At last, nomogram and clinical impact curve were used to validate the model.Results: A total of 4559 sepsis-3 patients are included in the study, in which, 889 patients were death and 3670 survival within 30 days, respectively. According to the results of AUCs (0.819 [95% CI 0.800-0.838], 0.797 [95% CI 0.781-0.813] and 0.857 [95% CI 0.839-0.876]) and decision curve analysis for the three models, the XGboost model performs best. The risk nomogram and clinical impact curve verify that the XGboost model possesses significant predictive value.Conclusions: Using machine learning technique by XGboost, more significant prediction model can be built. This XGboost model may prove clinically useful and assist clinicians in tailoring precise management and therapy for the patients with sepsis-3.
| S-EPMC7720497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe study objective was to build a machine learning model to predict incident mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's Disease, and related dementias from structured data using administrative and electronic health record sources.MethodsA cohort of patients (n = 121,907) and controls (n = 5,307,045) was created for modeling using data within 2 years of patient's incident diagnosis date. Additional cohorts 3-8 years removed from index data are used for prediction. Training cohorts were matched on age, gender, index year, and utilization, and fit with a gradient boosting machine, lightGBM.ResultsIncident 2-year model quality on a held-out test set had a sensitivity of 47% and area-under-the-curve of 87%. In the 3-year model, the learned labels achieved 24% (71%), which dropped to 15% (72%) in year 8.DiscussionThe ability of the model to discriminate incident cases of dementia implies that it can be a worthwhile tool to screen patients for trial recruitment and patient management.
| S-EPMC6920083 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Machine learning (ML) is largely used to develop automatic predictors in migraine classification but automatic predictors for medication overuse (MO) in migraine are still in their infancy. Thus, to understand the benefits of ML in MO prediction, we explored an automated predictor to estimate MO risk in migraine. To achieve this objective, a study was designed to analyze the performance of a customized ML-based decision support system that combines support vector machines and Random Optimization (RO-MO). We used RO-MO to extract prognostic information from demographic, clinical and biochemical data. Using a dataset of 777 consecutive migraine patients we derived a set of predictors with discriminatory power for MO higher than that observed for baseline SVM. The best four were incorporated into the final RO-MO decision support system and risk evaluation on a five-level stratification was performed. ROC analysis resulted in a c-statistic of 0.83 with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.69 and 0.87, respectively, and an accuracy of 0.87 when MO was predicted by at least three RO-MO models. Logistic regression analysis confirmed that the derived RO-MO system could effectively predict MO with ORs of 5.7 and 21.0 for patients classified as probably (3 predictors positive), or definitely at risk of MO (4 predictors positive), respectively. In conclusion, a combination of ML and RO - taking into consideration clinical/biochemical features, drug exposure and lifestyle - might represent a valuable approach to MO prediction in migraine and holds the potential for improving model precision through weighting the relative importance of attributes.
| S-EPMC7327028 | biostudies-literature