Evidence-based communication on climate change and health: Testing videos, text, and maps on climate change and Lyme disease in Manitoba, Canada.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cameron L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8191974 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundLyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada owing to the range expansion of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis).ObjectivesOur objective was to estimate future LD incidence in Canada, and economic costs, for the 21st century with projected climate change.MethodsFuture regions of climatic suitability for I. scapularis were projected from temperature output of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment regional climate model ensemble using greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Once regions became climatically suitable for ticks, an algorithm derived from tick and LD case surveillance data projected subsequent increasing LD incidence. Three scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic) for maximum incidence at endemicity were selected based on LD surveillance, and underreporting estimates, from the United States. Health care and productivity cost estimates of LD cases were obtained from the literature.ResultsProjected annual LD cases for Canada ranged from 120,000 to >500,000 by 2050. Variation in incidence was mostly due to the maximum incidence at endemicity selected, with minor contributions from variations among climate models and RCPs. Projected annual costs were substantial, ranging from CA$0.5 billion to $2.0 billion a year by 2050. There was little difference in projected incidence and economic cost between RCPs, and from 2050 to 2100, because projected climate up to 2050 is similar for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions captured in RCP4.5 does not impact climate before the 2050s) and by 2050 the most densely populated areas of the study region are projected to be climatically suitable for ticks.ConclusionsFuture incidence and economic costs of LD in Canada are likely to be substantial, but uncertainties remain. Because densely populated areas of Canada are projected to become endemic under conservative climate change scenarios, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is unlikely to provide substantial health co-benefits for LD. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13759.
| S-EPMC10863724 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Microbial communities of boreal peatlands under climate change conditions: Does community structure indicate the dynamics of ecosystem function?
| PRJEB25233 | ENA
Project description:BackgroundBartonella are gram-negative bacilli not identified by routine bacterial culture. The objectives of this study were to review the results of all serologic testing for Bartonella ordered in Manitoba, Canada, and to review cases with positive test results among adults to assess species identification, risk factors, clinical manifestations and outcomes.MethodsThis retrospective study included all Bartonella serologic tests ordered in Manitoba and performed at the National Microbiology Laboratory, Winnipeg, from Jan. 1, 2010, until Dec. 31, 2020. We analyzed the aggregate data for all serologic tests for Bartonella for patients of all ages. We reviewed the charts of adult (age ≥ 18 yr) patients with serologic positivity for Bartonella who had a medical chart at 1 of Winnipeg's 2 largest hospitals (Health Sciences Centre and St. Boniface Hospital) to extract clinical and demographic data and create a case series. Descriptive statistics were performed.ResultsDuring the study period, 1014 Bartonella serologic tests were ordered in adult and pediatric patients, of which 24 (2.4%) gave a positive result. Sixteen adults (12 men and 4 women; mean age 48 yr) seen at a participating hospital had a positive result. Molecular species-level identification occurred on explanted cardiac valves in 5 (31%) of the 16 cases; B. quintana was identified in all 5. Six patients (38%) were diagnosed with probable B. quintana infection, for a total of 11 B. quintana cases (69%); 8 (73%) of the 11 had endocarditis. Four cases of B. quintana infection (36%) were associated with rural residence. Four cases (25%) of probable B. henselae were identified; 2 patients had fever and lymphadenopathy, and 2 had endocarditis. The remaining patient was deemed to have a false-positive result as his B. henselae titre was at the threshold for positivity, his B. quintana serologic test gave a negative result, and his clinical syndrome was not suggestive of Bartonella infection. Two patients died; both had multivalvular B. quintana endocarditis with ruptured intracranial mycotic aneurysms.InterpretationBartonella quintana was a common cause of Bartonella serologic positivity among adults in Manitoba in 2010-2020 and was associated with endocarditis and systemic embolization. As B. quintana is transmitted by body lice, active case finding for people who lack suitable housing, both in urban and rural settings, should prioritize those with elevated Bartonella titres to receive echocardiography and detect endocarditis before systemic embolization occurs.
| S-EPMC9177198 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.
| S-EPMC4972305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county-level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate-disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.
| S-EPMC7855786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Organisation EGAO00000001275
| EGAO00000001275 | EGA
Project description:Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted to humans by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. The life cycle of the LD vector, I. scapularis, usually takes two to three years to complete and goes through three stages, all of which are dependent on environmental factors. Increases in daily average temperatures, a manifestation of climate change, might have contributed to an increase in tick abundance via higher rates of tick survival. Additionally, these environmental changes might have contributed to better host availability, which is necessary for tick feeding and life cycle completion. In fact, it has been shown that both tick activity and survival depend on temperature and humidity. In this study, we have examined the relationship between those climatic variables and the reported incidence of LD in 15 states that contribute to more than 95% of reported cases within the Unites States. Using fixed effects analysis for a panel of 468 U.S. counties from those high-incidence states with annual data available for the period 2000-2016, we have found sizable impacts of temperature on the incidence of LD. Those impacts can be described approximately by an inverted U-shaped relationship, consistent with patterns of tick survival and host-seeking behavior. Assuming a 2°C increase in annual average temperature-in line with mid-century (2036-2065) projections from the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4)-we have predicted that the number of LD cases in the United States will increase by over 20 percent in the coming decades. These findings may help improving preparedness and response by clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers, as well as raising public awareness of the importance of being cautious when engaging in outdoor activities.
| S-EPMC6220411 | biostudies-other
Project description:Communication of science through online media has become a primary means of disseminating and connecting science with a public audience. However, online media can come in many forms and stories of scientific discovery can be told by many individuals. We tested whether the relationship of a spokesperson to the science story being told (i.e., the narrative perspective) influences how people react and respond to online science media. We created five video stimuli that fell into three treatments: a scientist presenting their own research (male or female), a third-party summarizing research (male or female), and an infographic-like video with no on-screen presenter. Each of these videos presented the same fabricated science story about the discovery of a new ant species (Formicidae). We used Qualtrics to administer and obtain survey responses from 515 participants (~100 per video). Participants were randomly assigned to one of the videos and after viewing the stimulus answered questions assessing their perceptions of the video (trustworthiness and enjoyment), the spokesperson (trustworthiness and competence), scientists in general (competence and warmth), and attitudes towards the research topic and funding. Participants were also asked to recall what they had seen and heard. We determined that when participants watched a video in which a scientist presented their own research, participants perceived the spokesperson as having more expertise than a third-party presenter, and as more trustworthy and having more expertise than the no-spokesperson stimuli. Viewing a scientist presenting their own work also humanized the research, with participants more often including a person in their answer to the recall question. Overall, manipulating the narrative perspective of the source of a single online video communication effort is effective at impacting immediate objective outcomes related to spokesperson perceptions, but whether those objectives can positively influence long-term goals requires more investigation.
| S-EPMC8513868 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:The LHIV-Manitoba cohort was developed as a way to provide a comprehensive source of HIV-related health information in the central Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba. The cohort will provide important information as we aim to better understand local HIV epidemiology and address key knowledge and practice gaps in HIV prevention, treatment and care programming in the province. PARTICIPANTS:In total, 890 individuals, aged 18 or older and living or receiving HIV care in Manitoba are enrolled in the cohort. A complete clinical dataset exists for 725 participants, which includes variables on sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities and co-infections, self-reported HIV exposure categories and HIV clinical indicators. A limited clinical dataset exists for an additional 165 individuals who were enrolled posthumously. 97.5% of cohort participants' clinical records are linked to provincial administrative health datasets. FINDINGS TO DATE:The average age of cohort participants is 49.7 years. Approximately three-quarters of participants are male, 42% self-identified as white and 42% as Indigenous. The majority of participants (64%) reported condomless vaginal sex as a risk exposure for HIV. Nearly one-fifth (18%) of participants have an active hepatitis C virus infection and the cohort's median CD4 count increased from 316 cells/mm3 to 518 cells/mm3 between time of entry into care and end of the first quarter in 2019. FUTURE PLANS:The LHIV-Manitoba cohort is an open cohort, and as such, participant enrolment, data collection and analyses will be continually ongoing. Future analyses will focus on the impact of provincial drug plans on clinical outcomes, determinants of mortality among cohort participants and deriving estimates for a local HIV care cascade.
| S-EPMC7259858 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo monitor the adoption of climate change adaptive behaviors in the population, public health authorities have to conduct national surveys, which can help them target vulnerable subpopulations. To ensure reliable estimates of the adoption of these preventive behaviors, many data collection methods are offered by polling firms. The aim of this study was to compare a telephone survey with a web survey on Lyme disease with regard to their representativeness.MethodsThe data comes from a cross-sectional study conducted in the Province of Québec (Canada). In total, 1003 people completed the questionnaire by telephone and 956 filled in a web questionnaire. We compared the data obtained from both survey modes with the census data in regard to various demographic characteristics. We then compared the data from both samples in terms of self-reported Lyme disease preventive behaviors and other theoretically associated constructs. We also assessed the measurement invariance (equivalence) of the index of Lyme disease preventive behaviors across the telephone and web samples.ResultsFindings showed that neither the telephone nor the web panel modes of data collection can be considered more representative of the target population. The results showed that the proportion of item non-responses was significantly higher with the web questionnaire (5.6%) than with the telephone survey (1.3%), and that the magnitude of the differences between the two survey modes was nil for 19 out of the 30 items related to Lyme disease, and small for 11 of them. Results from invariance analyses confirmed the measurement invariance of an index of adaptation to Lyme disease, as well as the mean invariance across both samples.ConclusionsOur results suggested that both samples provided similar estimates of the level of adaptation to Lyme disease preventive behaviors. In sum, the results of our study showed that neither survey mode was superior to the other. Thus, in studies where adaptation to climate change is monitored over time, using a web survey instead of a telephone survey could be more cost-effective, and researchers should consider doing so in future surveys on adaptation to climate. However, we recommend conducting a pretest study before deciding whether to use both survey modes or only one of them.
| S-EPMC7146908 | biostudies-literature