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Machine Learning Models for Estrogen Receptor Bioactivity and Endocrine Disruption Prediction.

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) periodically releases in vitro data across a variety of targets, including the estrogen receptor (ER). In 2015, the EPA used these data to construct mathematical models of ER agonist and antagonist pathways to prioritize chemicals for endocrine disruption testing. However, mathematical models require in vitro data prior to predicting estrogenic activity, but machine learning methods are capable of prospective prediction from the molecular structure alone. The current study describes the generation and evaluation of Bayesian machine learning models grouped by the EPA's ER agonist pathway model using multiple data types with proprietary software, Assay Central. External predictions with three test sets of in vitro and in vivo reference chemicals with agonist activity classifications were compared to previous mathematical model publications. Training data sets were subjected to additional machine learning algorithms and compared with rank normalized scores of internal five-fold cross-validation statistics. External predictions were found to be comparable or superior to previous studies published by the EPA. When assessing six additional algorithms for the training data sets, Assay Central performed similarly at a reduced computational cost. This study demonstrates that machine learning can prioritize chemicals for future in vitro and in vivo testing of ER agonism.

SUBMITTER: Zorn KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8194504 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:An area of ongoing concern in toxicology and chemical risk assessment is endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). However, thousands of legacy chemicals lack the toxicity testing required to assess their respective EDC potential, and this is where computational toxicology can play a crucial role. The US (United States) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has run two programs, the Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Project (CERAPP) and the Collaborative Modeling Project for Receptor Activity (CoMPARA) which aim to predict estrogen and androgen activity, respectively. The US EPA solicited research groups from around the world to provide endocrine receptor activity Qualitative (or Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationship ([Q]SAR) models and then combined them to create consensus models for different toxicity endpoints. Random Forest (RF) models were developed to cover a broader range of substances with high predictive capabilities using large datasets from CERAPP and CoMPARA for estrogen and androgen activity, respectively. By utilizing simple descriptors from open-source software and large training datasets, RF models were created to expand the domain of applicability for predicting endocrine disrupting activity and help in the screening and prioritization of extensive chemical inventories. In addition, RFs were trained to conservatively predict the activity, meaning models are more likely to make false-positive predictions to minimize the number of False Negatives. This work presents twelve binary and multi-class RF models to predict binding, agonism, and antagonism for estrogen and androgen receptors. The RF models were found to have high predictive capabilities compared to other in silico modes, with some models reaching balanced accuracies of 93% while having coverage of 89%. These models are intended to be incorporated into evolving priority-setting workflows and integrated strategies to support the screening and selection of chemicals for further testing and assessment by identifying potential endocrine-disrupting substances.

Project description:Many chemicals that disrupt endocrine function have been linked to a variety of adverse biological outcomes. However, screening for endocrine disruption using in vitro or in vivo approaches is costly and time-consuming. Computational methods, e.g., quantitative structure-activity relationship models, have become more reliable due to bigger training sets, increased computing power, and advanced machine learning algorithms, such as multilayered artificial neural networks. Machine learning models can be used to predict compounds for endocrine disrupting capabilities, such as binding to the estrogen receptor (ER), and allow for prioritization and further testing. In this work, an exhaustive comparison of multiple machine learning algorithms, chemical spaces, and evaluation metrics for ER binding was performed on public data sets curated using in-house cheminformatics software (Assay Central). Chemical features utilized in modeling consisted of binary fingerprints (ECFP6, FCFP6, ToxPrint, or MACCS keys) and continuous molecular descriptors from RDKit. Each feature set was subjected to classic machine learning algorithms (Bernoulli Naive Bayes, AdaBoost Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Models were evaluated using a variety of metrics: recall, precision, F1-score, accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen's Kappa, and Matthews correlation coefficient. For predicting compounds within the training set, DNN has an accuracy higher than that of other methods; however, in 5-fold cross validation and external test set predictions, DNN and most classic machine learning models perform similarly regardless of the data set or molecular descriptors used. We have also used the rank normalized scores as a performance-criteria for each machine learning method, and Random Forest performed best on the validation set when ranked by metric or by data sets. These results suggest classic machine learning algorithms may be sufficient to develop high quality predictive models of ER activity.

Project description:By predicting ERα bioactivity and mining the potential relationship between Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity (ADMET) attributes in drug research and development, the development efficiency of specific drugs for breast cancer will be effectively improved and the misjudgment rate of R&D personnel will be reduced. The quantitative prediction model of ERα bioactivity and classification prediction model of Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity properties were constructed. The prediction results of ERα bioactivity were compared by XGBoot, Light GBM, Random Forest and MLP neural network. Two models with high prediction accuracy were selected and fused to obtain ERα bioactivity prediction model from Mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE) and R2. The data were further subjected to model-based feature selection and FDR/FPR-based feature selection, respectively, and the results were placed in a voting machine to obtain Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity classification prediction model. In this study, 430 molecular descriptors were removed, and finally 20 molecular descriptors with the most significant effect on biological activity obtained by the dual feature screening combined optimization method were used to establish a compound molecular descriptor prediction model for ERα biological activity, and further classification and prediction of the Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity properties of the drugs were made. Eighty variables were selected by the model ExtraTreesClassifier Classifie, and 40 variables were selected by the model GradientBoostingClassifier to complete the model-based feature selection. At the same time, the feature selection method based on FDR/FPR is also selected, and the three classification models obtained by the two methods are placed into the voting machine to obtain the final model. The experimental results showed that the model's evaluation indexes and roc diagram were excellent and could accurately predict ERα bioactivity and Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity properties. The model constructed in this study has high accuracy, fast convergence and robustness, has a very high accuracy for Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, Toxicity and ERα classification prediction, has bright prospects in the biopharmaceutical field, and is an important method for energy conservation and yield increase in the future.

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Machine Learning Models for Estrogen Receptor Bioactivity and Endocrine Disruption Prediction.

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