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Gravitational scaling analysis on spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China.

ABSTRACT: The spatial diffusion of epidemic disease follows distance decay law in geography and social physics, but the mathematical models of distance decay depend on concrete spatio-temporal conditions. This paper is devoted to modeling spatial diffusion patterns of COVID-19 stemming from Wuhan city to Hubei province, China. The modeling approach is to integrate analytical method and experimental method. The local gravity model is derived from allometric scaling and global gravity model, and then the parameters of the local gravity model are estimated by observational data and least squares calculation. The main results are as below. The local gravity model based on power law decay can effectively describe the diffusion patterns and process of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, and the goodness of fit of the gravity model based on negative exponential decay to the observational data is not satisfactory. Further, the goodness of fit of the model to data entirely became better and better over time, the size elasticity coefficient increases first and then decreases, and the distance attenuation exponent decreases first and then increases. Moreover, the significance of spatial autoregressive coefficient in the model is low, and the confidence level is less than 80%. The conclusions can be reached as follows. (1) The spatial diffusion of COVID-19 of Hubei bears long range effect, and the size of a city and the distance of the city to Wuhan affect the total number of confirmed cases. (2) Wuhan direct transmission is the main process in the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei at the early stage, and the horizontal transmission between regions is not significant. (3) The effect of spatial lockdown and isolation measures taken by Chinese government against the transmission of COVID-19 is obvious. This study suggests that the role of urban gravity (size and distance) should be taken into account to prevent and control epidemic disease.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8195435 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a crucial influence on people's lives and socio-economic development throughout China and across the globe since December 2019. An understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the COVID-19 epidemic on multiple scales could benefit the control of the outbreak. Therefore, we used spatial autocorrelation and Spearman's rank correlation methods to investigate these two topics, respectively. The COVID-19 epidemic data reported publicly and relevant open data in Hubei province were analyzed. The results showed that (1) at both prefecture and county levels, the global spatial autocorrelation was extremely significant for the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases (CCC) in Hubei province from 30 January to 18 February 2020. Further, (2) at both levels, the significant hotspot and cluster/outlier area was observed solely in Wuhan city and most of its districts/sub-cities from 30 January to 18 February 2020. (3) At the prefecture level in Hubei province, the number of CCC had a positive and extremely significant correlation (p < 0.01) with the registered population (RGP), resident population (RSP), Baidu migration index (BMI), regional gross domestic production (GDP), and total retail sales of consumer goods (TRS), respectively, from 29 January to 18 February 2020 and had a negative and significant correlation (p < 0.05) with minimum elevation (MINE) from 2 February to 18 February 2020, but no association with the land area (LA), population density (PD), maximum elevation (MAXE), mean elevation (MNE), and range of elevation (RAE) from 23 January to 18 February 2020. (4) At the county level, the number of CCC in Hubei province had a positive and extremely significant correlation (p < 0.01) with PD, RGP, RSP, GDP, and TRS, respectively, from 27 January to 18 February 2020, and was negatively associated with MINE, MAXE, MNE, and RAE, respectively, from 26 January to 18 February 2020, and negatively associated with LA from 30 January to 18 February 2020. It suggested that (1) the COVID-19 epidemic at both levels in Hubei province had evident characteristics of significant global spatial autocorrelations and significant centralized high-risk outbreaks, and had an extremely significant association with social and economic factors. (2) The COVID-19 epidemics were significantly associated with the natural factors, such as LA, MAXE, MNE, and RAE, -only at the county level, not at the prefecture level, from 2 February to 18 February 2020. (3) The COVID-19 epidemics were significantly related to the socioeconomic factors, such as RGP, RSP, TRS, and GDP, at both levels from 26 January to 18 February 2020. It is desired that this study enrich our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the COVID-19 epidemic and benefit classified prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic for policymakers.

Project description:BackgroundSchistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in China. The major endemic areas are located in the lake and marshland regions of southern China, particularly in areas along the middle and low reach of the Yangtze River. Spatial analytical techniques are often used in epidemiology to identify spatial clusters in disease regions. This study assesses the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and explores high-risk regions in Hubei Province, China to provide guidance on schistosomiasis control in marshland regions.MethodsIn this study, spatial autocorrelation methodologies, including global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord statistics, were utilized to describe and map spatial clusters and areas where human Schistosoma japonicum infection is prevalent at the county level in Hubei province. In addition, linear logistic regression model was used to determine the characteristics of spatial autocorrelation with time.ResultsThe infection rates of S. japonicum decreased from 2009 to 2013. The global autocorrelation analysis results on the infection rate of S. japonicum for five years showed statistical significance (Moran's I > 0, P < 0.01), which suggested that spatial clusters were present in the distribution of S. japonicum infection from 2009 to 2013. Local autocorrelation analysis results showed that the number of highly aggregated areas ranged from eight to eleven within the five-year analysis period. The highly aggregated areas were mainly distributed in eight counties.ConclusionsThe spatial distribution of human S. japonicum infections did not exhibit a temporal change at the county level in Hubei Province. The risk factors that influence human S. japonicum transmission may not have changed after achieving the national criterion of infection control. The findings indicated that spatial-temporal surveillance of S. japonicum transmission plays a significant role on schistosomiasis control. Timely and integrated prevention should be continued, especially in the Yangtze River Basin of Jianghan Plain area.

Project description:BackgroundIn the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the susceptibility of patients with rheumatic diseases to COVID-19 remains unclear. We aimed to investigate susceptibility to COVID-19 in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe did a multicentre retrospective study of patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases in Hubei province, the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Patients with rheumatic diseases were contacted through an automated telephone-based survey to investigate their susceptibility to COVID-19. Data about COVID-19 exposure or diagnosis were collected. Families with a documented history of COVID-19 exposure, as defined by having at least one family member diagnosed with COVID-19, were followed up by medical professionals to obtain detailed information, including sex, age, smoking history, past medical history, use of medications, and information related to COVID-19.FindingsBetween March 20 and March 30, 2020, 6228 patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases were included in the study. The overall rate of COVID-19 in patients with an autoimmune rheumatic disease in our study population was 0·43% (27 of 6228 patients). We identified 42 families in which COVID-19 was diagnosed between Dec 20, 2019, and March 20, 2020, in either patients with a rheumatic disease or in a family member residing at the same physical address during the outbreak. Within these 42 families, COVID-19 was diagnosed in 27 (63%) of 43 patients with a rheumatic disease and in 28 (34%) of 83 of their family members with no rheumatic disease (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2·68 [95% CI 1·14-6·27]; p=0·023). Patients with rheumatic disease who were taking hydroxychloroquine had a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than patients taking other disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (OR 0·09 [95% CI 0·01-0·94]; p=0·044). Additionally, the risk of COVID-19 was increased with age (adjusted OR 1·04 [95%CI 1·01-1·06]; p=0·0081).InterpretationPatients with autoimmune rheumatic disease might be more susceptible to COVID-19 infection than the general population.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China and the Tongji Hospital Clinical Research Flagship Program.

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Gravitational scaling analysis on spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China.

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