Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lipsitch M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8197448 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), and recent studies have shown the vaccines are also effective against infection. Evidence for the effect of each of these vaccines on ability to transmit the virus is also beginning to emerge. We describe an approach to estimate these vaccines' effects on viral positivity, a prevalence measure which under the reasonable assumption that vaccinated individuals who become infected are no more infectious than unvaccinated individuals forms a lower bound on efficacy against transmission. Specifically, we recommend separate analysis of positive tests triggered by symptoms (usually the primary outcome) and cross-sectional prevalence of positive tests obtained regardless of symptoms. The odds ratio of carriage for vaccine vs. placebo provides an unbiased estimate of vaccine effectiveness against viral positivity, under certain assumptions, and we show through simulations that likely departures from these assumptions will only modestly bias this estimate. Applying this approach to published data from the RCT of the Moderna vaccine, we estimate that one dose of vaccine reduces the potential for transmission by at least 61%, possibly considerably more. We describe how these approaches can be translated into observational studies of vaccine effectiveness.
| S-EPMC7924301 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTwo previous studies of a herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) subunit vaccine containing glycoprotein D in HSV-discordant couples revealed 73% and 74% efficacy against genital disease in women who were negative for both HSV type 1 (HSV-1) and HSV-2 antibodies. Efficacy was not observed in men or HSV-1 seropositive women.MethodsWe conducted a randomized, double-blind efficacy field trial involving 8323 women 18 to 30 years of age who were negative for antibodies to HSV-1 and HSV-2. At months 0, 1, and 6, some subjects received the investigational vaccine, consisting of 20 μg of glycoprotein D from HSV-2 with alum and 3-O-deacylated monophosphoryl lipid A as an adjuvant; control subjects received the hepatitis A vaccine, at a dose of 720 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) units. The primary end point was occurrence of genital herpes disease due to either HSV-1 or HSV-2 from month 2 (1 month after dose 2) through month 20.ResultsThe HSV vaccine was associated with an increased risk of local reactions as compared with the control vaccine, and it elicited ELISA and neutralizing antibodies to HSV-2. Overall, the vaccine was not efficacious; vaccine efficacy was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI], -29 to 50) against genital herpes disease. However, efficacy against HSV-1 genital disease was 58% (95% CI, 12 to 80). Vaccine efficacy against HSV-1 infection (with or without disease) was 35% (95% CI, 13 to 52), but efficacy against HSV-2 infection was not observed (-8%; 95% CI, -59 to 26).ConclusionsIn a study population that was representative of the general population of HSV-1- and HSV-2-seronegative women, the investigational vaccine was effective in preventing HSV-1 genital disease and infection but not in preventing HSV-2 disease or infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00057330.).
| S-EPMC3287348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigated the role of antibody responses as potential mechanism for the cross-protective vaccine-efficacies (VE) observed from randomized clinical trials of the HPV16/18 bivalent vaccine. Results HPV31 cases had lower HPV16 antibody levels than controls (OR 4th quartile compared with 1st quartile = 0.63; 95%CI: 0.36-1.08; p-trend = 0.03). HPV31 cases were also less likely to have detectable HPV31 neutralization, and HPV16 avidity than controls. No statistically significant differences by HPV18 antibody or HPV45 neutralization were observed among HPV45 cases and controls. Protection against HPV58 was not associated with any of the markers, confirming the specificity of our findings.Samples are from three-dose HPV vaccine recipients from the Costa Rica HPV16/18 vaccine trial. Women with a new HPV31, HPV45, or HPV58 infections over four years of follow-up were compared with randomly selected control women--with no new infection with HPV31/45/58--with respect to HPV16 and HPV18 antibody, HPV31, HPV45, and HPV58 neutralization, and HPV16 avidity.High HPV16 levels and avidity, and the ability to neutralize HPV31 were associated with protection against newly detected HPV31 infections, suggesting that the partial VE demonstrated for HPV31 is likely to be mediated at least in part through antibodies induced by HPV16/18 vaccination.
| S-EPMC3974884 | biostudies-other
Project description:PURPOSE: Validated biomarkers predictive of response/resistance to anthracyclines in breast cancer are currently lacking. The neoadjuvant TOP trial, in which patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative tumors were treated with anthracycline (epirubicin) monotherapy, was specifically designed to evaluate the predictive value of topoisomerase IIα (TOP2A) and to develop a gene expression signature to identify those patients who do not benefit from anthracyclines. METHODS: The TOP trial included 149 patients, of which 141 were evaluable for response prediction analyses. The primary endpoint was pathological complete response (pCR). TOP2A and gene expression profiles were evaluated using pre-epirubicin biopsies. Gene expression data from ER-negative samples of the EORTC 10994/BIG 00-01 and MDACC 2003-0321 neoadjuvant trials were used for validation purposes. RESULTS: A pCR was obtained in 14% of the evaluable TOP patients. TOP2A amplification, but not protein overexpression, was significantly associated with pCR (p=0.001 and 0.22). We developed an “anthracycline-based score (A-Score)” that combines three signatures: a TOP2A gene signature and two previously published signatures related to tumor invasion and immune response. The A-Score was characterized by a high negative predictive value (NPV=0.98 [95% CI: 0.90-1.00]) overall, and in the HER2-negative and HER2-positive subpopulations. Its performance was independently confirmed in the anthracycline-based (FAC/FEC) arms of the two validation trials (BIG 00-01: 0.80 [0.61-0.92] and MDACC 2003-0321: 1.00 [0.80-1.00]). CONCLUSION: Given its high NPV, the A-Score could become, if further validated, a useful clinical tool to identify those patients who do not benefit from anthracyclines and could therefore be spared the non-negligible side effects. Predicting the efficacy of anthracyclines (epirubicin) in breast cancer (BC) patients (TOP trial) 120 microarray experiments from primary ER-negative breast tumors of anthracycline-treated patients. No replicate, no reference sample.
2010-01-26 | E-GEOD-16446 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Mice were immunized with either formalin fixed Influenza A/PR/8/34 (Killed PR8), the 2006-2007 seasonal influenza vaccine, the 2007-2008 seasonal influenza vaccine, a sublethal infection (live PR8) or mock immunized (PBS). Array data was used to distinguish the immunogens from each other and predict which of the three inactivated vaccines would be protective against A/PR/8/34 challenge. two replicates of each peptide was printed on 1 CIM_10kv3 peptide microarray. One microarray were tested for each sample. Image was qualified using in-house metrics for quality assurance.
2013-11-04 | E-GEOD-51623 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Although a number of studies have investigated and quantified immune correlates of protection against influenza in adults and children, data on immune protection in the elderly are sparse. A recent vaccine efficacy trial comparing standard-dose with high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine in persons 65 years of age and older provided the opportunity to examine the relationship between values of three immunologic assays and protection against community-acquired A/H3N2 influenza illness. The high-dose vaccine induced significantly higher antibody titers than the standard-dose vaccine for all assays. For the hemagglutination inhibition assay, a titer of 40 was found to correspond with 50% protection when the assay virus was antigenically well matched to the circulating virus--the same titer as is generally recognized for 50% protection in younger adults. A dramatically higher titer was required for 50% protection when the assay virus was a poor match to the circulating virus. With the well-matched virus, some protection was seen at the lowest titers; with the poorly matched virus, high levels of protection were not achieved even at the highest titers. Strong associations were also seen between virus neutralization test titers and protection, but reliable estimates for 50% protection were not obtained. An association was seen between titers of an enzyme-linked lectin assay for antineuraminidase N2 antibodies and protection; in particular, the proportion of treatment effect explained by assay titer in models that included both this assay and one of the other assays was consistently higher than in models that included either assay alone. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01427309.).
| S-EPMC4783426 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The vaccine efficacy (VE) of 1 or 2 doses of AS03-adjuvanted influenza A(H1N1) vaccine relative to that of 2 doses of nonadjuvanted influenza A(H1N1) vaccine in children 6 months to <10 years of age in a multinational study conducted during 2010-2011.A total of 6145 children were randomly assigned at a ratio of 1:1:1 to receive 2 injections 21 days apart of A/California/7/2009(H1N1)-AS03 vaccine at dose 1 and saline placebo at dose 2, 2 doses 21 days apart of A/California/7/2009(H1N1)-AS03 vaccine (the Ad2 group), or 2 doses 21 days apart of nonadjuvanted A/California/7/2009(H1N1) vaccine (the NAd2 group). Active surveillance for influenza-like illnesses continued from days 14 to 385. Nose and throat samples obtained during influenza-like illnesses were tested for A/California/7/2009(H1N1), using reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety were assessed.There were 23 cases of confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (A[H1N1]pdm09) infection for the primary relative VE analysis. The VE in the Ad2 group relative to that in the NAd2 group was 76.8% (95% confidence interval, 18.5%-93.4%). The benefit of the AS03 adjuvant was demonstrated in terms of the greater immunogenicity observed in the Ad2 group, compared with the NAd2 group.The 4-8-fold antigen-sparing adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine demonstrated superior and clinically important prevention of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, compared with nonadjuvanted vaccine, with no observed increase in medically attended or serious adverse events. These data support the use of adjuvanted influenza vaccines during influenza pandemics. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01051661.
| S-EPMC4111912 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTyphoid fever is a major public health problem in low-resource settings. Vaccination can help curb the disease and might reduce transmission. We have previously reported an interim analysis of the efficacy of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in Nepali children. Here we report the final results after 2 years of follow-up.MethodsWe did a participant-masked and observer-masked individually randomised trial in Lalitpur, Nepal, in which 20 019 children aged 9 months to younger than 16 years were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single dose of TCV (Typbar TCV, Bharat Biotech International, India) or capsular group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenA). Participants were followed up until April 9, 2020. The primary outcome was blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Cases were captured via passive surveillance and active telephone surveillance followed by medical record review. The trial is registered at ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN43385161 and is ongoing.FindingsFrom Nov 20, 2017, to April 9, 2018, of 20 119 children screened, 20 019 participants were randomly assigned to receive TCV or MenA vaccine. There were 75 cases of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever included in the analysis (13 in the TCV group and 62 in the MenA group) over the 2-year period. The protective efficacy of TCV against blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever at 2 years was 79·0% (95% CI 61·9-88·5; p<0·0001). The incidence of typhoid fever was 72 (95% CI 38-123) cases per 100 000 person-years in the TCV group and 342 (95% CI 262-438) cases per 100 000 person-years in the MenA group. Adverse events occurring within the first 7 days post-vaccination were reported previously.InterpretationThe final results of this randomised, controlled trial are in keeping with the results of our published interim analysis. There is no evidence of waning protection over a 2-year period. These findings add further support for the WHO recommendations on control of enteric fever.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8551681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phase IIb or III HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials are generally large and operationally challenging. To mitigate this challenge, the HIV Vaccine Trials Network is designing a Phase IIb efficacy trial accommodating the evaluation of multiple vaccine regimens concurrently. As this efficacy trial would evaluate a limited number of vaccine regimens, there is a need to develop a framework for optimizing the strategic selection of regimens from the large number of vaccine candidates tested in Phase I/IIa trials. In this paper we describe the approaches for the selection process, including the choice of immune response endpoints and the statistical criteria and algorithms. We illustrate the selection approaches using data from HIV-1 vaccine trials.
| S-EPMC4902743 | biostudies-other
Project description:Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is one of the most significant viral pathogens during pregnancy and in immunocompromised patients. Antiviral prophylactic strategies are limited by toxicities, drug-drug interactions and development of antiviral resistance. A safe and protective vaccine against CMV is highly desirable in view of the potential positive impact on CMV-associated morbidity and mortality as well as healthcare costs. Unfortunately, this demand could not be met in the past four decades although development of a CMV vaccine has been ranked at the highest priority by the US Institute of Medicine. Multiple different vaccine candidates have been developed and evaluated in phase I clinical trials and few succeeded to phase II trials. Nevertheless, two different vaccines showed recently promising results in trials that studied healthy adults and immunocompromised solid-organ and bone-marrow transplant recipients, respectively. The gB/MF59 vaccine exhibited a vaccine efficacy of 50% in healthy, postpartum females. In transplant patients, gB/MF59 and the DNA vaccine TransVax both limited the periods of viraemia and consequently the need for antiviral treatment. The success of these trials is encouraging and will probably give new impetus to the development of an effective CMV vaccine. Sterilizing immunity may not be attainable in the near future and may not be necessary for a CMV vaccine to have a significant impact on health care as discussed in the present review.
| S-EPMC5716458 | biostudies-literature