SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics in Retirement and Nursing Homes in Italy: A New Preparedness Assessment Model after the First Epidemic Wave.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gugliotta C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8199425 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe relationship between the risk of exposure to environmental hazards and the emergency preparedness of nursing homes is not well-understood. This study evaluates the association between wildfire exposure risk and nursing home emergency preparedness.MethodsFrom a sample of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) certified nursing homes in California, we determined the prevalence of "exposed" facilities that were located within 5 km of a wildfire risk area, as informed by a field-tested model. Among the 1182 nursing homes, we identified emergency preparedness deficiencies from January 2017 to December 2019. We estimated associations between exposure and emergency preparedness deficiencies using unadjusted and adjusted generalized estimating equations with logistic and negative binomial distributions.ResultsA greater percentage of the 495 exposed facilities had at least one emergency preparedness deficiency than the 687 unexposed facilities (83.9% vs 76.9%). The mean (3.6 vs 3.2) and median (3 vs 2) numbers of emergency preparedness deficiencies were also greater for exposed facilities. In both the unadjusted and adjusted analyses, exposure to wildfire risk was significantly associated with the likelihood of at least one emergency preparedness deficiency (adjusted odds ratio 1.52, p-value 0.007). There was a positive but not statistically significant association between exposure and the number of emergency preparedness deficiencies assigned to a nursing home (adjusted rate ratio 1.12, p-value 0.062). These results were consistent in analyses that used more stringent distance- and severity-thresholds to define exposure status.ConclusionCalifornia nursing homes at heightened risk of exposure to wildfires have poorer emergency preparedness than unexposed facilities. These findings suggest that nursing home management and staff may be unaware of important environmental risks to which their facilities are exposed. Improved integration of nursing homes into community disaster planning may better align facility preparedness with surrounding wildfire risk.
| S-EPMC10023274 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With the aim of studying the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Tuscany region of Italy during the first epidemic wave (February-June 2020), we define a compartmental model that accounts for both detected and undetected infections and assumes that only notified cases can die. We estimate the infection fatality rate, the case fatality rate, and the basic reproduction number, modeled as a time-varying function, by calibrating on the cumulative daily number of observed deaths and notified infected, after fixing to plausible values the other model parameters to assure identifiability. The confidence intervals are estimated by a parametric bootstrap procedure and a Global Sensitivity Analysis is performed to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in the values of the fixed parameters. According to our results, the basic reproduction number drops from an initial value of 6.055 to 0 at the end of the national lockdown, then it grows again, but remaining under 1. At the beginning of the epidemic, the case and the infection fatality rates are estimated to be 13.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Among the parameters considered as fixed, the average time from infection to recovery for the not notified infected appears to be the most impacting one on the model estimates. The probability for an infected to be notified has a relevant impact on the infection fatality rate and on the shape of the epidemic curve. This stresses the need of collecting information on these parameters to better understand the phenomenon and get reliable predictions.
| S-EPMC8059849 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to the coronavirus family and is characterized by its high transmission competence. Elderly COVID-19 patients are at significantly higher risk of severe course of disease and death. Therefore, outbreaks in nursing homes are particularly challenging for facility managers and health authorities. Here, we report three outbreaks of COVID-19 related to nursing homes (NH01.a, NH02 and NH03) with almost 1000 affected individuals during the first COVID-19 wave in Berlin, Germany. The occurrence of cases and the measures taken were analyzed retrospectively. In all three outbreaks, the index persons were nursing home employees or volunteers. Measures taken were quarantine of contacts, close-meshed tests, separation of the affected housing unit, suspension of admission, ban on visiting, and equipping staff with personal protective equipment, of which there was a shortage in Germany at the beginning of the pandemic. A court-ordered quarantine became necessary for three residents of NH01.a due to cognitive disabilities. In total, 61 persons were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in NH01.a, ten persons in NH02, and sixteen persons in NH03. Seventeen patients (27.9%) of NH01.a and three patients (18.8%) of NH03 were referred to hospital. Of all confirmed cases, thirteen (21.3%) related to NH01.a and four (25.0%) related to NH03 died as a result of the infection. Besides one 82 year old volunteer, all deceased persons were residents aged between 66 and 98. Our results emphasize the importance of a previously developed containment and cluster strategy for nursing homes. Due to the particular vulnerability of the residents, immediate action, close cooperation and communication between the facility management, residents, visitors and the health authorities are essential in the case of confirmed COVID-19 cases in healthcare facilities.
| S-EPMC8709844 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and resolution of the data available from public sources, we pinpoint significant trends exploiting information in curves and shapes with Functional Data Analysis techniques. These depict two starkly different epidemics; an "exponential" one unfolding in Lombardia and the worst hit areas of the north, and a milder, "flat(tened)" one in the rest of the country-including Veneto, where cases appeared concurrently with Lombardia but aggressive testing was implemented early on. We find that mobility and positivity can predict COVID-19 mortality, also when controlling for relevant covariates. Among the latter, primary care appears to mitigate mortality, and contacts in hospitals, schools and workplaces to aggravate it. The techniques we describe could capture additional and potentially sharper signals if applied to richer data.
| S-EPMC8405612 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Italy was one of the first countries to experience a major epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with >1000 cases confirmed by 1 March 2020. However, virus genome sequence data is sparse and there has been only limited investigation of virus transmission across the country. Here, we provide the most extensive study to date of the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy covering the first wave of infection. We generated 191 new full-length genomes, largely sampled from central Italy (Abruzzo), before, during, and after the enforcement of a nationwide "lockdown" (8 March-3 June). These were combined with 460 published SARS-CoV-2 sequences sampled across Italy. Phylogenetic analysis including global sequence data revealed multiple independent introductions into Italy, with at least 124 instances of sequence clusters representing longer chains of transmission. Eighteen of these transmission clusters emerged before the nation-wide lockdown was implemented on 8 March, and an additional 18 had evidence for transmission between different Italian regions. Extended transmission periods between infections of up to 104 days were observed in five clusters. In addition, we found seven clusters that persisted throughout the lockdown period. Overall, we show how importations were an important driver of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.
| S-EPMC7765063 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates (IFRs) in developing countries remain poorly characterized. Mexico has one of the highest reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates worldwide, although available estimates do not consider serologic assessment of prior exposure nor all SARS-CoV-2-related deaths. We aimed to estimate sex- and age-specific IFRs for SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.MethodsThe total number of people in Mexico with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived from National Survey of Health and Nutrition-COVID-19 (ENSANUT 2020 Covid-19)-a nationally representative serosurvey conducted from August to November 2020. COVID-19 mortality data matched to ENSANUT's dates were retrieved from the death-certificate registry, which captures the majority of COVID-19 deaths in Mexico, and from the national surveillance system, which covers the subset of COVID-19 deaths that were identified by the health system and were confirmed through a positive polymerase chain reaction test. We analysed differences in IFRs by urbanization and region.ResultsThe national SARS-CoV-2 IFR was 0.47% (95% CI 0.44, 0.50) using death certificates and 0.30% (95% CI 0.28, 0.33) using surveillance-based deaths. The IFR increased with age, being close to zero at age <30 years, but increasing to 1% at ages 50-59 years in men and 60-69 years in women, and being the highest at ≥80 years for men (5.88%) and women (6.23%). Across Mexico's nine regions, Mexico City (0.99%) had the highest and the Peninsula (0.26%) the lowest certificate-based IFRs. Metropolitan areas had higher certificate-based IFR (0.63%) than rural areas (0.17%).ConclusionAfter the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall IFR in Mexico was comparable with those of European countries. The IFR in Mexico increased with age and was higher in men than in women. The variations in IFRs across regions and places of residence within the country suggest that structural factors related to population characteristics, pandemic containment and healthcare capabilities could have influenced lethality at the local level.
| S-EPMC8903396 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In a previous study in Belgian nursing homes (NH) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, we found a SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of 17% with a large variability (0-45%) between NH. The current exploratory study aimed to identify nursing home-specific risk factors for high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. Between October 19th, 2020 and November 13th, 2020, during the second COVID-19 wave in Belgium, capillary blood was collected on dried blood spots from 60 residents and staff in each of the 20 participating NH in Flanders and Brussels. The presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies was assessed by ELISA. Risk factors were evaluated using a questionnaire, filled in by the director or manager of the NH. Assessed risk factors comprised community-related factors, resident-related factors, management and performance features as well as building-related aspects. The relation between risk factors and seroprevalence was assessed by applying random forest modelling, generalized linear models and Bayesian linear regression. The present analyses showed that the prevalence of residents with dementia, the scarcity of personal protective equipment (surgical masks, FFP2 masks, glasses and face shields), and inadequate PCR test capacity were related to a higher seroprevalence. Generally, our study put forward that the various aspects of infection prevention in NH require more attention and investment. This exploratory study suggests that the ratio of residents with dementia, the availability of test capacity and personal protective equipment may have played a role in the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of NH, after the first wave. It underscores the importance of the availability of PPE and education in infection prevention. Moreover, investments may also yield benefits in the prevention of other respiratory infections (such as influenza).
| S-EPMC10553833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in nursing homes (NHs) have been devastating and have led to the creation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) units within NHs to care for affected patients. Frequency and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 environmental contamination in these units have not been studied.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted between October 2020 and January 2021 in four Michigan NHs. Swabs from high-touch surfaces in COVID-19-infected patient rooms were obtained at enrollment and follow-up. Demographic and clinical data were collected from clinical records. Primary outcome of interest was the probability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from specific environmental surfaces in COVID-19 patient rooms. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess patient risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 contamination. Pairwise Phi coefficients were calculated to measure correlation of site-specific environmental detection upon enrollment and during follow-up.ResultsOne hundred and four patients with COVID-19 were enrolled (61.5% >80 years; 67.3% female; 89.4% non-Hispanic White; 51% short stay) and followed up for 241 visits. The study population had significant disabilities in activities of daily living (ADL; 81.7% dependent in four or more ADLs) and comorbidities, including dementia (55.8%), diabetes (40.4%), and heart failure (32.7%). Over the 3-month study period, 2087 swab specimens were collected (1896 COVID-19 patient rooms, 191 common areas). SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 28.4% (538/1896 swabs) on patient room surfaces and 3.7% (7/191 swabs) on common area surfaces. Nearly 90% (93/104) of patients had SARS-CoV-2 contamination in their room at least once. Environmental contamination upon enrollment correlated with contamination of the same site during follow-up. Functional independence increased the odds of proximate contamination.ConclusionsEnvironmental detection of viral RNA from surfaces in the rooms of COVID-19 patients is nearly universal and persistent; more investigation is needed to determine the implications of this for infectiousness. Patients with greater independence are more likely than fully dependent patients to contaminate their immediate environment.
| S-EPMC8661527 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionResidents in facilities such as nursing homes (NHs) are particularly vulnerable to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A national survey was carried out to collect information on the spreading and impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in nursing homes, and on how suspected and/or confirmed cases were managed. We carried out a survey between 25 March 2020 and 5 May 2020.Materials and methodsAll Italian nursing homes either public or providing services both privately and within the NHS were included in the study. An on-line questionnaire was sent to 3292 nursing homes across all Italian regions. Nursing homes were also contacted by telephone to provide assistance in completing the questionnaire.ResultsA total of 1356 nursing homes voluntarily participated to the survey, hosting a total of 100,806 residents. Overall, 9154 residents died due to any cause from February 1 to the time when the questionnaire was completed (from March 25 to May 5). Of these, 7.4% had COVID-19 and 33.8% had flu-like symptoms, corresponding to a cumulative incidence of 0.7 and 3.1, respectively. Lack of personnel, difficulty in transferring patients to hospital or other facility, isolating residents with COVID-19, number of beds and geographical area were the main factor positively associated to the presence of COVID-19 in nursing homes.DiscussionThis survey showed the dissemination and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italian nursing homes and on how older and potentially chronically ill people residing in these long-term care facilities were managed.
| S-EPMC8247061 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this study is the characterization and genomic tracing by phylogenetic analyses of 59 new SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates obtained from patients attending clinical centres in North and Central Italy until the end of April 2020. All but one of the newly-characterized genomes belonged to the lineage B.1, the most frequently identified in European countries, including Italy. Only a single sequence was found to belong to lineage B. A mean of 6 nucleotide substitutions per viral genome was observed, without significant differences between synonymous and non-synonymous mutations, indicating genetic drift as a major source for virus evolution. tMRCA estimation confirmed the probable origin of the epidemic between the end of January and the beginning of February with a rapid increase in the number of infections between the end of February and mid-March. Since early February, an effective reproduction number (Re) greater than 1 was estimated, which then increased reaching the peak of 2.3 in early March, confirming the circulation of the virus before the first COVID-19 cases were documented. Continuous use of state-of-the-art methods for molecular surveillance is warranted to trace virus circulation and evolution and inform effective prevention and containment of future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
| S-EPMC7472216 | biostudies-literature