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Estimating Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participant Posttrial Survival Using Pooled Epidemiologic Cohort Data.

ABSTRACT: Background Intensive systolic blood pressure treatment (<120 mm Hg) in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) improved survival compared with standard treatment (<140 mm Hg) over a median follow-up of 3.3 years. We projected life expectancy after observed follow-up in SPRINT using SPRINT-eligible participants in the NHLBI-PCS (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Pooled Cohorts Study). Methods and Results We used propensity scores to weight SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants to resemble SPRINT participants. In SPRINT participants, we estimated in-trial survival (<4 years) using a time-based flexible parametric survival model. In SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants, we estimated posttrial survival (≥4 years) using an age-based flexible parametric survival model and applied the formula to SPRINT participants to predict posttrial survival. We projected overall life expectancy for each SPRINT participant and compared it to parametric regression (eg, Gompertz) projections based on SPRINT data alone. We included 8584 SPRINT and 10 593 SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants. After propensity weighting, mean (SD) age was 67.9 (9.4) and 68.2 (8.8) years, and 35.5% and 37.6% were women in SPRINT and NHLBI-PCS, respectively. Using the NHLBI-PCS-based method, projected mean life expectancy from randomization was 21.0 (7.4) years with intensive and 19.1 (7.2) years with standard treatment. Using the Gompertz regression, life expectancy was 11.2 (2.3) years with intensive and 10.5 (2.2) years with standard treatment. Conclusions Combining SPRINT and NHLBI-PCS observed data likely offers a more realistic estimate of life expectancy than parametrically extrapolating SPRINT data alone. These results offer insight into the potential long-term effectiveness of intensive SBP goals.

SUBMITTER: Bellows BK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8200698 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThere are concerns with translating results from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) into clinical practice because the standardized protocol used to measure blood pressure (BP) may not be consistently applied in routine clinical practice.ObjectivesTo evaluate the concordance between BPs obtained in routine clinical practice and those obtained using the SPRINT protocol and whether concordance varied by target trial BP.Design, setting, and participantsThis observational prognostic study linking outpatient vital sign information from electronic health records (EHRs) with data from 49 of the 102 SPRINT sites was conducted from November 8, 2010, to August 20, 2015, among 3074 adults 50 years or older with hypertension without diabetes or a history of stroke. Statistical analysis was performed from May 21, 2019, to March 20, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresBlood pressures measured in routine clinical practice and SPRINT.ResultsParticipant-level EHR data was obtained for 3074 participants (2482 men [80.7%]; mean [SD] age, 68.5 [9.1] years) with 3 or more outpatient and trial BP measurements. In the period from the 6-month study visit to the end of the study intervention, the mean systolic BP (SBP) in the intensive treatment group from outpatient BP recorded in the EHR was 7.3 mm Hg higher (95% CI, 7.0-7.6 mm Hg) than BP measured at trial visits; the mean difference between BP recorded in the outpatient EHR and trial SBP was smaller for participants in the standard treatment group (4.6 mm Hg [95% CI, 4.4-4.9 mm Hg]). Bland-Altman analyses demonstrated low agreement between outpatient BP recorded in the EHR and trial BP, with wide agreement intervals ranging from approximately -30 mm Hg to 45 mm Hg in both treatment groups. In addition, the difference between BP recorded in the EHR and trial BP varied widely by site.Conclusions and relevanceOutpatient BPs measured in routine clinical practice were generally higher than BP measurements taken in SPRINT, with greater mean SBP differences apparent in the intensive treatment group. There was a consistent high degree of heterogeneity between the BPs recorded in the EHR and trial BPs, with significant variability over time, between and within the participants, and across clinic sites. These results highlight the importance of proper BP measurement technique and an inability to apply 1 common correction factor (ie, approximately 10 mm Hg) to approximate research-quality BP estimates when BP is not measured appropriately in routine clinical practice.Trial registrationSPRINT ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01206062.

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Estimating Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participant Posttrial Survival Using Pooled Epidemiologic Cohort Data.

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