Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one).

Methods

Data on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitt

SUBMITTER: Blumberg S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8201580 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature