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Predicting ventilator-associated pneumonia with machine learning.

ABSTRACT:

Abstract

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common and fatal nosocomial infection in intensive care units (ICUs). Existing methods for identifying VAP display low accuracy, and their use may delay antimicrobial therapy. VAP diagnostics derived from machine learning (ML) methods that utilize electronic health record (EHR) data have not yet been explored. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of a variety of ML models trained to predict whether VAP will be diagnosed during the patient stay.A retrospective study examined data from 6126 adult ICU encounters lasting at least 48 hours following the initiation of mechanical ventilation. The gold standard was the presence of a diagnostic code for VAP. Five different ML models were trained to predict VAP 48 hours after initiation of mechanical ventilation. Model performance was evaluated with regard to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve on a 20% hold-out test set. Feature importance was measured in terms of Shapley values.The highest performing model achieved an AUROC value of 0.854. The most important features for the best-performing model were the length of time on mechanical ventilation, the presence of antibiotics, sputum test frequency, and the most recent Glasgow Coma Scale assessment.Supervised ML using patient EHR data is promising for VAP diagnosis and warrants further validation. This tool has the potential to aid the timely diagnosis of VAP.

SUBMITTER: Giang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8202554 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a significant cause of mortality in the intensive care unit. Early diagnosis of VAP is important to provide appropriate treatment and reduce mortality. Developing a noninvasive and highly accurate diagnostic method is important. The invention of electronic sensors has been applied to analyze the volatile organic compounds in breath to detect VAP using a machine learning technique. However, the process of building an algorithm is usually unclear and prevents physicians from applying the artificial intelligence technique in clinical practice. Clear processes of model building and assessing accuracy are warranted. The objective of this study was to develop a breath test for VAP with a standardized protocol for a machine learning technique. METHODS:We conducted a case-control study. This study enrolled subjects in an intensive care unit of a hospital in southern Taiwan from February 2017 to June 2019. We recruited patients with VAP as the case group and ventilated patients without pneumonia as the control group. We collected exhaled breath and analyzed the electric resistance changes of 32 sensor arrays of an electronic nose. We split the data into a set for training algorithms and a set for testing. We applied eight machine learning algorithms to build prediction models, improving model performance and providing an estimated diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS:A total of 33 cases and 26 controls were used in the final analysis. Using eight machine learning algorithms, the mean accuracy in the testing set was 0.81?±?0.04, the sensitivity was 0.79?±?0.08, the specificity was 0.83?±?0.00, the positive predictive value was 0.85?±?0.02, the negative predictive value was 0.77?±?0.06, and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves was 0.85?±?0.04. The mean kappa value in the testing set was 0.62?±?0.08, which suggested good agreement. CONCLUSIONS:There was good accuracy in detecting VAP by sensor array and machine learning techniques. Artificial intelligence has the potential to assist the physician in making a clinical diagnosis. Clear protocols for data processing and the modeling procedure needed to increase generalizability.

Project description:Background: The ability to assess adverse outcomes in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) could improve clinical decision-making to enhance clinical practice, but the studies remain insufficient, and similarly, few machine learning (ML) models have been developed. Objective: We aimed to explore the effectiveness of predicting adverse outcomes in CAP through ML models. Methods: A total of 2,302 adults with CAP who were prospectively recruited between January 2012 and March 2015 across three cities in South America were extracted from DryadData. After a 70:30 training set: test set split of the data, nine ML algorithms were executed and their diagnostic accuracy was measured mainly by the area under the curve (AUC). The nine ML algorithms included decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machines, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbors, ridge regression, logistic regression without regularization, and neural networks. The adverse outcomes included hospital admission, mortality, ICU admission, and one-year post-enrollment status. Results: The XGBoost algorithm had the best performance in predicting hospital admission. Its AUC reached 0.921, and accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were better than those of other models. In the prediction of ICU admission, a model trained with the XGBoost algorithm showed the best performance with AUC 0.801. XGBoost algorithm also did a good job at predicting one-year post-enrollment status. The results of AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score indicated the algorithm had high accuracy and precision. In addition, the best performance was seen by the neural network algorithm when predicting death (AUC 0.831). Conclusions: ML algorithms, particularly the XGBoost algorithm, were feasible and effective in predicting adverse outcomes of CAP patients. The ML models based on available common clinical features had great potential to guide individual treatment and subsequent clinical decisions.

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Predicting ventilator-associated pneumonia with machine learning.

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