Dataset Information

Estimating the COVID-19 Spread Through Real-time Population Mobility Patterns: Surveillance in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

On January 21, 2020, the World Health Organization reported the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which rapidly evolved to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries.

Objective

The first aim of this study is to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and space (from January 21 to mid-May 2020) in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions, using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim is to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21 and May 18, 2020, under the implemented government interventions, measurements, and policy restrictions on COVID-19 spread among those regions and worldwide.

Methods

We created a global COVID-19 database, of 218 countries and territories, merging the World Health Organization daily case reports with other measures such as population density and country income levels for January 21 to May 18, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created for low, intermediate, high, and very high interventions. The population's mobility patterns at the country level were obtained from Google community mobility reports. The prospective space-time scan statistic method was applied in five time periods between January and May 2020, and a regression mixed model analysis was used.

Results

We found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time increased from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May 2020. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during at least a minimum of implemented intermediate-level control policies (when compared to low-level control policies) was related to accelerated COVID-19 spread. Results were almost consistent when regional stratified analysis was applied. In addition, worldwide population mobility due to working during high implemented control policies and very high implemented control policies, when compared to low-level control policies, was related to positive COVID-19 spread.

Conclusions

The prospective space-time scan is an approach that low-income and middle-income countries could use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real-time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies at a global and regional level.

SUBMITTER: Tyrovolas S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8204939 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Study description: the study is a clinical trial aimed at assessing the validity of a point-of-care tool developed for colorectal cancer screening using urine metabolites. Objectives: Primary Objective: In the pilot phase, investigators will field test the POC device in Nigeria on 75 patients who are high-risk for CRC and then validate the urine metabolite signature using a large cohort of 645 patients at high risk for CRC and polyps. This will allow us to determine the sensitivity and specificity of this device and these signatures for CRC and polyps. Endpoints: the endpoint will be the calculation of the validity (sensitivity and specificity) of the tool. Positive and negative predictive values will also be calculated. Study population: Patients > 40 years of age with LGI bleeding for more than one-week OR * Patients who are high risk due to a family history of CRC (first-degree relative) * Must be at most 10 years younger than when relative presented with CRC (For example, a patient with a relative diagnosed at age 40 with CRC will be eligible after age 30) * Patients with a diagnosis of stage I-III CRC who have no evidence of disease Both males and females will be involved in the study I. The study will evaluate the validity and acceptability of the POC biosensor device in Nigeria. Description of sites/facilities enrolling participants: the study will be conducted at Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex (OAUTHC) which hosts the head office of African Research Group for Oncology (ARGO). The study will also run concurrently at other ARGO collaborating sites. All the ARGO collaborating sites are tertiary health care facilities with experienced personnel to oversee the study. The pilot study will, however, take place in OAUTHC alone. Study duration: The accrual time for the validation study is 2.5 years. Participant Duration: the study will require initial one-time contact. Those that are positive during the screening with the POC biosensor device will be booked for colonoscopy. Hence, for participants with positive results to complete the study may require 2 weeks on average.

Project description:IntroductionPeople are increasingly mobile for numerous reasons, including healthcare. Patient mobility has vast implications for individuals, communities and whole populations and yet, to date, research on patient mobility has been quite limited. Only a small body of evidence exists on patient mobility between low-income and middle-income countries, instead having focused primarily on cross-border movement between high-income and low-income countries. In this paper, we present a protocol for examining this under-studied phenomenon.Methods and analysisWe propose to examine patient mobility between low-income and middle-income countries using a realist synthesis approach. Specifically, we aim to document why patients from low-income and middle-income countries cross international borders for healthcare, by identifying the mechanisms through which patients decide to cross-borders, and the contextual characteristics of domestic health markets that influence this choice. An underlying theory was established, based on the lead author's experience and a brief literature review, which will provide the basis to analyse search results in a subsequent paper. Search results will be obtained from databases (Ovid Medline, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, Web of Science) and the grey literature. An expert committee will be enlisted, prior to screening results, to review search results to ensure comprehensiveness. Based on this preliminary theory, we propose that, in some low-income and middle-income country markets, the interaction between demand-side and supply-side determinants results in market imperfections that, in turn, lead to patient movement across borders.Ethics and disseminationThe study does not involve primary research and, therefore, does not require formal ethical approval; we do, however, follow the relevant standards of utility, usefulness, feasibility, propriety, accuracy and accountability. The standards of realist and meta-narrative evidence synthesis (RAMESES) will be adhered to in reporting the findings of the review. Once completed, the findings of the resulting manuscript will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.Trial registration numberThis protocol has been registered with PROSPERO, registration number CRD42014014391.

Project description:ObjectivesStudies indicate that many types of surgical care are cost-effective compared with other health interventions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, global health investments to support these interventions remain limited. This study undertakes a scoping review of research on the economic impact of surgical interventions in LMICs to determine the methodologies used in measuring economic benefits.DesignThe Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework for scoping reviews and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist were used to review the data systematically. Online databases were used to identify papers published between 2005 and 2020, from which we selected 19 publications that quantitatively examined the economic benefits of surgical interventions in LMICs.ResultsMajority of publications (79%) reported the use of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to assess economic impact. In comparison, 21% used other measures, such as the value of statistical life or cost-effectiveness ratios, or no measure at all. 31% were systematic or retrospective reviews of the literature on surgical procedures in LMICs, while 69% either directly assessed economic impact in a specific area or evaluated the need for surgical procedures in LMICs. All studies reviewed related to the economic impact of surgical procedures in LMICs, with most about paediatric surgical procedures or a specific surgical specialty.ConclusionTo make informed policy decisions regarding global health investments, the economic impact must be accurately measured. Researchers employ a range of techniques to quantify the economic benefit of surgeries in LMICs, which limits understanding of overall economic value. We conclude that the literature would benefit from a careful selection of methods, incorporating age and disability weights based on the Global Burden of Disease weights, and converting DALYs to dollars using the value of statistical life approach and the human capital approach, reporting both estimates.

Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about zoonotic tuberculosis (zTB) due to Mycobacterium bovis burden across the globe. The aim of this study was to describe zTB surveillance programs in selected WHO signatory countries and to assess the relationship of the disease with the country's income level and the risk of M. bovis transmission.MethodsWe searched the main articles databases and grey literature for guide documents published between 1980 and 2019. For inclusion, the articles and guide documents had to be in English, French, Portuguese, Spanish, or Italian. Only original articles and narrative and systematic reviews were accepted and the guide documents were required to be available on official websites. We excluded articles that did not focus on epidemiology, control and surveillance. We used bovine TB cases in livestock and wildlife populations as a proxy for the country's risk of zTB using data from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) published from 2015 to 2018. Countries were classified according to income level (World Bank's classification) and strength of zTB surveillance. The study was registered in PROSPERO under number CRD42018090603.FindingsWe included 13 articles and 208 guide documents including data from 119/194 countries (61.3%). We found a lack of surveillance data about zTB in over half (89.9%) of the 119 WHO signatory countries. Most surveillance systems perform passive surveillance and are not integrated into the One Health perspective, which was operating in 4/119 (3.4%) countries, all high-income. Many of these countries (71/119, 59.7%) have M. bovis circulating in their cattle herds, but only ~10% of them have implemented zTB surveillance activities.InterpretationOur findings highlight weaknesses in zTB surveillance worldwide, with a consequent lack of information that could support an adequate understanding of disease burden, especially in countries at major risk for M. bovis transmission. To meet this challenge, efforts will be needed to promote intersectoral policies, implementing the One Health strategy.

Project description:BackgroundRoutine microbiology results are a valuable source of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as well as in high-income countries. Different approaches and strategies are used to generate AMR surveillance data.ObjectivesWe aimed to review strategies for AMR surveillance using routine microbiology results in LMICs and to highlight areas that need support to generate high-quality AMR data.SourcesWe searched PubMed for papers that used routine microbiology to describe the epidemiology of AMR and drug-resistant infections in LMICs. We also included papers that, from our perspective, were critical in highlighting the biases and challenges or employed specific strategies to overcome these in reporting AMR surveillance in LMICs.ContentTopics covered included strategies of identifying AMR cases (including case-finding based on isolates from routine diagnostic specimens and case-based surveillance of clinical syndromes), of collecting data (including cohort, point-prevalence survey, and case-control), of sampling AMR cases (including lot quality assurance surveys), and of processing and analysing data for AMR surveillance in LMICs.ImplicationsThe various AMR surveillance strategies warrant a thorough understanding of their limitations and potential biases to ensure maximum utilization and interpretation of local routine microbiology data across time and space. For instance, surveillance using case-finding based on results from clinical diagnostic specimens is relatively easy to implement and sustain in LMIC settings, but the estimates of incidence and proportion of AMR is at risk of biases due to underuse of microbiology. Case-based surveillance of clinical syndromes generates informative statistics that can be translated to clinical practices but needs financial and technical support as well as locally tailored trainings to sustain. Innovative AMR surveillance strategies that can easily be implemented and sustained with minimal costs will be useful for improving AMR data availability and quality in LMICs.