Dataset Information

Impacts of COVID-19 induced income and rice price shocks on household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household model estimates.

ABSTRACT: Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March-September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consumption patterns in PNG and estimate demand parameters for urban and rural households. Model simulations indicate that a 25% rise in the world price of rice would reduce total rice consumption in PNG by 14% and reduce rice consumption of the poor (bottom 40% of total household expenditure distribution) by 15%. Including the effects of a possible 12% decrease in household incomes because of the COVID-19 related economic slowdown, rice consumption of the urban and rural poor fall by 20% and 17%, respectively. Maintaining functioning domestic supply chains of key staple goods is critical to mitigating the effects of global rice price increases, allowing urban households to increase their consumption of locally produced staples.

SUBMITTER: Schmidt E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8207060 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Impacts of COVID-19 induced income and rice price shocks on household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household model estimates.

Schmidt Emily E Dorosh Paul P Gilbert Rachel R

Agricultural economics (Amsterdam, Netherlands) 20210506 3

Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March-September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consu ...[more]

PMID: 34149128

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundExposure to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels affects 2.8 billion people in developing countries, including children and pregnant women. The aim of this review is to propose intervention estimates for child survival outcomes linked to HAP.MethodsSystematic reviews with meta-analysis were conducted for ages 0-59 months, for child pneumonia, adverse pregnancy outcomes, stunting and all-cause mortality. Evidence for each outcome was assessed against Bradford-Hill viewpoints, and GRADE used for certainty about intervention effect size for which all odds ratios (OR) are presented as protective effects.ResultsReviews found evidence linking HAP exposure with child ALRI, low birth weight (LBW), stillbirth, preterm birth, stunting and all-cause mortality. Most studies were observational and rated low/very low in GRADE despite strong causal evidence for some outcomes; only one randomised trial was eligible.Intervention effect (OR) estimates of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.75) for ALRI, 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) for LBW and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for stillbirth are proposed, specific outcomes for which causal evidence was sufficient. Exposure-response evidence suggests this is a conservative estimate for ALRI risk reduction expected with sustained, low exposure. Statistically significant protective ORs were also found for stunting [OR=0.79 (0.70, 0.89)], and in one study of pre-term birth [OR=0.70 (0.54, 0.90)], indicating these outcomes would also likely be reduced. Five studies of all-cause mortality had an OR of 0.79 (0.70, 0.89), but heterogenity precludes a reliable estimate for mortality impact. Although interventions including clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves are available and can deliver low exposure levels, significant challenges remain in achieving sustained use at scale among low-income households.ConclusionsReducing exposure to HAP could substantially reduce the risk of several child survival outcomes, including fatal pneumonia, and the proposed effects could be achieved by interventions delivering low exposures. Larger impacts are anticipated if WHO air quality guidelines are met. To achieve these benefits, clean fuels should be adopted where possible, and for other households the most effective solid fuel stoves promoted. To strengthen evidence, new studies with thorough exposure assessment are required, along with evaluation of the longer-term acceptance and impacts of interventions.

Project description:To explore impact of enhancing social advancement of females in Japan, this study determined the effects of the dual-income household rate on suicide mortalities disaggregated by attributes of gender, age, and motives between 2009 and 2017 in Japan. This study analysed impact of dual-income household rate, other household-related factors (savings, liabilities and yearly incomes per household, minors and elderly rate per household), and social/employment factors (complete unemployment rate, employment rate, temporary male and female employment rates and certification rate of long-term care insurance) on suicide mortalities disaggregated by attributes of gender, age, and motives using hierarchical linear-regression model. Dual-income household rate was significantly/negatively related to suicide mortality of the working-age female population, but significantly/positively related to that of the elderly female population. Suicide mortalities of the working-age male population and the elderly male population were significantly/positively related to dual-income household rate. Male suicide mortalities caused by family-, health-, economy- and employment-related motives were significantly/positively related to dual-income household rate; however, the dual-income household rate was significantly/positively related to female suicide mortalities caused by family-, health-, economy- and school-related motives, but significantly/negatively related to suicide mortalities caused by romance-related motives. Dual-income households suppress social-isolation and develop economical/psychological independence of females, leading to reduced suicide mortality in working-age females. However, elderly and school-age populations, who are supported by the working-age female, suffer from isolation. Working-age males also suffer from inability to adapt from the traditional concept of work-life and work-family balances to the novel work-family balance concept adapted to dual-income households. These results suggest occurrence of new social/family problems in the 21st century due to vulnerability of traditional Japanese culture and life-working-family balance concepts as well as novel sociofamilial disturbances induced by declining birth rate and ageing population in Japan.

Project description:BackgroundPapua New Guinea (PNG) experienced positive GDP growth at approximately 4.3% per year during the last decade. With increases in overall wealth within the country, PNG is facing a double burden of malnutrition: comparatively high child stunting rates and a growing overweight and obesity epidemic. We focus on the latter by evaluating trends in agri-food import data from 2001 to 2018 and household consumption data from 2018 and 2009/10.ResultsThe analysis presented in this paper raises three red flags. First, international food import data suggest that the demand for ultra-processed, sugar-sweetened beverages and food have increased substantially over time in PNG. Sugar-sweetened beverages dominated the largest growth in processed food imports, increasing by 23% per capita per year between 2001 and 2018. Second, households across the country with a greater food expenditure on sugar-sweetened beverages have a higher probability of an overweight child (under 5 years old). Last, the probability of soft-drink consumption in PNG increases with greater income acquisition and improved market access. While the price of a soft drink is negatively correlated with the quantity consumed, analysis suggests that total household income has a quantitatively larger (and positive) association with soft drink consumption.ConclusionsTaxing (or increasing taxes on) sugar-sweetened beverages may not be a sufficient policy mechanism to curb overconsumption of soft drinks in PNG. Education and advocacy programs should be fostered that integrate improved dietary information on packaging, as well as greater access to and understanding of nutrition and diet information of common household consumption items. While increases in household income and market access are crucial to economic growth and transformation, PNG's economic transition must be dovetailed with programs that expand and enhance health and nutrition information and education to improve household consumption decisions and overall household wellbeing.

Dataset Information

Impacts of COVID-19 induced income and rice price shocks on household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household model estimates.

Publications

Impacts of COVID-19 induced income and rice price shocks on household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household model estimates.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets