Nomograms for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma Patients Based on the Eighth AJCC Staging and Competing Risks Model.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients have a long survival period and good prognosis, so they are easily affected by competing risk events. The purpose of this study was to use the competing risks model to identify prognostic factors for cause-specific death (CSD) and death due to other causes (DOC) in patients with DTC.Methods
Our screening process identified 34 585 DTC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. We used the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model to establish the CSD and DOC nomograms. The distinguishing ability and consistency of the nomograms were evaluated using the consistency indexes and calibration plots.Results
Our analysis of a competing risks model revealed that pathological grade, tumor size, histological type, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-8 stage, surgery status, adjuvant radiotherapy status, adjuvant chemotherapy status, and log odds of positive lymph nodes are prognostic factors for CSD, and age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, sex, pathological grade, tumor size, AJCC-8 stage, surgery status, adjuvant radiotherapy status, and lymph node ratio are prognostic factors for DOC. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year concordance indexes in the validation cohorts were 0.942, 0.931, and 0.913 for the CSD nomogram and 0.813, 0.746, and 0.776 for the DOC nomogram. The calibration plots showed good consistency in both nomograms.Conclusions
Our nomograms can be used as a tool to help clinicians individually predict the probability of CSD and DOC in DTC patients at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, which has certain guiding value in clinical applications.
SUBMITTER: Li C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8211639 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo explore the value of ultrasound in evaluating T/N staging of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC).MethodsThe clinical data of 1206 patients with DTC in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Cervical ultrasound was performed before surgery, and the standard ultrasound images of thyroid nodules and cervical lymph nodes I to VII were retained. According to the 8th TNM staging guidelines of AJCC DTC, the T/N stages were assessed by preoperative ultrasonic data. Then, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predicted value, positive predicted value (PPV), and diagnostic value of ultrasound T/N staging were assessed using postoperative pathological staging as the reference.ResultsUltrasonic T-stage had good consistency to pathological T stage in T4a and T4b tumors (kappa value>0.75), and moderate consistency to pathological T stage in T1, T2 and T3a tumors (kappa value between 0.4 and 0.75). ultrasonic T-stage had a sensitivity higher than 66%, except in T3b assessment (13/44, 29.5%, 95%CI: 16.1%-43.0%). All ultrasonic T-stage had specificity higher than 93%, except in T1b assessment (734/889, 82.6%, 95%CI: 80.1%-85.1%). The PPV of ultrasonic T1a to T4b was 94.3% (494/524), 61.0% (242/397), 54.4% (87/160), 34.3% (12/35), 20.3% (13/64), 100% (22/22) and 100% (4/4), respectively. The diagnostic accuracy values were 83% in T1a, 81% in T1b, 91% in T2, 98% in T3a, 93% in T3b, 99% in T4a and 100% in T4b. Nltrasonic N-stage had poor consistency to pathological N stage in any N stages (kappa value<0.3). The PPV of ultrasonic N0, N1, N1a and N1b was 61.0% (542/889), 55.2% (37/67), 48.2% (53/110), and 24.3% (34/140), respectively.ConclusionUltrasound has a good consistency and high accuracy in assessing the T-stage of DTC. However, the consistency and accuracy were poor in N-staging. It has a certain reference value in reducing excessive surgical treatment of DTC.
| S-EPMC9202856 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives: Since the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor-node-metastasis (AJCC/TNM) cancer staging system introduced some significant changes, we investigated whether patients with stage T1-2N1M1 differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) should be placed in stage IVB, with the goal of providing suggestions for improved survival prediction. Materials and Methods: We divided 30,234 DTC patients aged ?55 years enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database into different stage groups based on the new stage system but in a more thorough manner. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to explore the clinicopathological factors associated with cancer-specific survival. Survival of different stage groups was assessed by mortality rates per 1,000 person-years, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, and Kaplan-Meier analyses with log-rank tests and the propensity score matching method. Results: Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that age at diagnosis, T stage, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, histological types, extrathyroidal extension, and radiation therapy were associated with cancer-specific survival. Patients with stage T1-2N1M1 had a lower cancer-specific mortality rate per 1,000 person-years (28.081, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.616-62.505) and all-cause mortality rate per 1,000 person-years (70.203, 95% CI: 42.323-116.448) than those with low-level stages such as stage T4aN1M0, stage IVA, and stage T1-2N0M1. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses suggested that patients with stage T4bN1M0 belonging to stage IVA (hazard ratio: 2.529, 95% CI: 1.018-6.278, p = 0.046) had a significantly higher risk of cancer-specific mortality than those with stage T1-2N1M1. Kaplan-Meier analyses with log-rank tests suggested that the cancer-specific survival curve of patients with stage T1-2N1M1 had a more modest decline than that of stage T4bN1M0 (p = 0.0125), and the cancer-specific survival curve and all-cause survival curve of patients with stage T1-2N1M1 were not different from those of stage T3N1M0, stage T4aN0M0, stage T4aN1M0, stage T4bN0M0, and stage T1-2N0M1 (all, p > 0.05). The analysis yielded similar results after propensity score matching for other clinicopathological characteristics. Conclusion: Patients aged ?55 years with stage T1-2N1M1 DTC according to the eighth edition AJCC/TNM cancer staging system should be downstaged and those with stage T4bN1M0 upstaged accordingly.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:The AJCC/UICC classification is widely used for predicting survival in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but has not been evaluated as a predictor of recurrence. The hypothesis of this study was that the eighth edition of the AJCC system can be used in this novel way. METHODS:All patients in the study underwent surgery for PTC at a high-volume endocrine surgery centre in France between 1985 and 2015. The seventh and eighth editions of the AJCC/UICC staging system for PTC were employed to predict recurrence and disease-specific survival using the Kaplan-Meier and log rank tests. RESULTS:Among 4124 patients (79·7 per cent female), median age was 50 (i.q.r. 38-60)?years; 3906 patients (94·7 per cent) underwent total thyroidectomy, with lymph node dissection in 2495 (60·5 per cent). The eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system placed 91·8, 7·1, 0·4 and 0·7 per cent of patients in stages I-IV respectively. After reclassifying patients from the seventh to the eighth AJCC/UICC edition, the disease was downstaged in 23·8 per cent. Over a median follow-up of 7?years, 260 patients (6·4 per cent) developed recurrent disease, including 5·2 per cent of patients with stage I, 19·6 per cent with stage II, 59 per cent with stage III and 50 per cent with stage IV disease, according to the eighth edition. The eighth edition was a better predictor of recurrence than the seventh edition. CONCLUSION:The eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system appears to be a novel tool for predicting PTC recurrence, which is a meaningful outcome for this indolent disease. The eighth edition can be used to risk-stratify patients, keeping in mind that other molecular and pathological predictive factors must be integrated into the assessment of recurrence risk.
| S-EPMC6825520 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceTo our knowledge, there are no validation studies to date of the prognostic value of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual, eighth edition (AJCC 8), criteria for eyelid and periocular squamous cell carcinoma.ObjectiveTo determine the association of tumor (T) category in AJCC 8 with local recurrence, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis, and disease-specific survival (DSS) for eyelid and periocular squamous cell carcinoma.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective, single-center cohort study, 109 consecutive patients with eyelid and periocular squamous cell carcinoma treated from January 1999 to April 2018 were included. Patients with secondary involvement of the periocular region were excluded.Main outcomes and measuresLocal recurrence, nodal metastasis, distance metastasis, and DSS.ResultsOf the 109 included patients, 81 (74.3%) were male, and the median (range) age was 66 (40-91) years. At presentation, 43 patients (39.4%) had recurrent tumor, 4 (3.7%) had nodal metastasis, and 1 (0.9%) had distant metastasis. The median (range) follow-up was 23 (1-161) months. During follow-up, 11 patients (10.1%) developed local recurrence, 7 (6.4%) developed nodal metastasis, 2 (1.8%) developed distant metastasis, and 9 (8.3%) died of disease. The 5-year DSS rate was 87.7% (95% CI, 79.5-96.9). Chronic immunosuppression (hazard ratio, 47.24; 95% CI, 7.33-304.30; P < .001) and presentation with recurrent squamous cell carcinoma (hazard ratio, 5.22; 95% CI, 1.12-24.31; P = .04) were associated with local recurrence during follow-up. Of the 11 patients with local recurrence during follow-up, 7 (64%) had perineural invasion. T category was associated with nodal metastasis; clinical stage of T2c or worse at presentation was associated with higher risk of nodal metastasis and death of disease but not with a higher risk of local recurrence. Distant metastasis was associated with nodal metastasis at presentation (hazard ratio, 32.50; 95% CI, 1.97-536.40; P = .02) and during follow-up. A total of 33 patients (30.3%) had different T categories depending on whether disease was staged according to the seventh or eighth edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual. Compared with AJCC 7, AJCC 8 showed a better predictive value in terms of local recurrence (T3, 17% vs 14%; T4, 11% vs 16%) and DSS.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that T category in AJCC 8 is associated with nodal metastasis and DSS. Immunosuppression and presentation with recurrent disease are associated with increased risk of future local recurrence. Patients with tumors of clinical stage T2c or worse at presentation are at increased risk of nodal metastasis and worse DSS and should undergo surveillance for nodal metastasis. Future studies, ideally prospective in design, could provide greater confidence in these findings.
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Project description:BackgroundThe eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system has been effective since January 2018. It has introduced some major changes in the localized/locoregional melanoma classification. However, it has not been demonstrated how this classification was validated on external, clinical data.Patients and methodsIn this retrospective study, we have included 2474 patients diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma in localized or locoregional stage. They were treated surgically in our Center between years 1998 and 2014. Melanoma-specific and overall survival were calculated for each stage according to TNM7 and TNM8 using Kaplan-Meier estimator.ResultsThe melanoma-specific survival rates in our patients were similar to those reported from original cohort used to build TNM8 classification except for stage IIIC (5-year melanoma-specific survival 44.6% vs 51.8%, respectively for TNM7 vs TNM8).ConclusionOur study validated the eighth edition of TNM melanoma staging system as a viable tool in prognosis of the long-term survival of patients with localized or locoregionally advanced melanoma on an independent cohort. The new TNM 8 system has brought important improvements in prognostic assessment for melanoma patients. Deeper understanding of the significance of satellite/in-transit lesions may be required.
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Project description:BackgroundMedullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is an infrequent form malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Because of the influence of competitive risk, there may suffer from bias in the analysis of prognostic factors of MTC.MethodsBy extracting the data of patients diagnosed with MTC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1998 to 2016, we established the Cox proportional-hazards and competing-risks model to retrospectively analyze the impact of related factors on lymph nodes statistically.ResultsA total of 2,435 patients were included in the analysis, of which 198 died of MTC. The results of the multifactor competing-risk model showed that the number of total lymph nodes (19-89), positive lymph nodes (1-10,11-75) and positive lymph node ratio (25%-53%,>54%), age (46-60,>61), chemotherapy, mode of radiotherapy (others), tumor size(2-4cm,>4cm), number of lesions greater than 1 were poor prognostic factors for MTC. For the number of total lymph nodes, unlike the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model results, we found that it became an independent risk factor after excluding competitive risk factors. Competitive risk factors have little effect on the number of positive lymph nodes. For the proportion of positive lymph nodes, we found that after excluding competitive risk factors, the Cox proportional-hazards model overestimates its impact on prognosis. The competitive risk model is often more accurate in analyzing the effects of prognostic factors.ConclusionsAfter excluding the competitive risk, the number of lymph nodes, the number of positive and the positive proportion are the poor prognostic factors of medullary thyroid cancer, which can help clinicians more accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients with medullary thyroid cancer and provide a reference for treatment decision-making.
| S-EPMC10578593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimThis study aims to improve the classification performance of the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) by proposing the Khon Kaen University (KKU) staging system developed in cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand.MethodFour hundred eighty-eight patients with pCCA who underwent partial hepatectomy between 2002 and 2017 at the Srinagarind Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Thailand, were included. Overall survival (OS) related to clinicopathological features was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Logrank test was performed in univariate analysis to compare OS data of clinicopathological features to determine risk factors for poor survival. Significant features were further analyzed by multivariate analysis (Cox regression) to identify prognostic factors which were then employed to modify the eighth AJCC staging system.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that growth pattern (HR = 4.67-19.72, p < 0.001), moderately and poorly differentiated histological grades (HR = 2.31-4.99, p < 0.05 and 0.001, respectively), lymph node metastasis N1 and N2 (HR = 1.37 and 2.18, p < 0.05 and 0.01, respectively), and distant metastasis (HR = 2.11, p < 0.001) were independent factors when compared to their respective reference groups. There was a clear separation of patients with pCCA into KKU stage: I [OS = 116 months (mo.)], II (OS = 46 mo.), IIIA (OS = 24 mo.), IIIB (11 mo.), IVA (OS = 7 mo.), and IVB (OS = 6 mo.).ConclusionThe new staging system was based on the incorporation of growth patterns to modify the eighth AJCC staging system. The classification performance demonstrated that the KKU staging system was able to classify and distinctly separate patients with pCCA into those with good and poor outcomes. It was also able to improve the stratification performance and discriminative ability of different stages of pCCA classification better than the eighth AJCC staging system. Hence, the KKU staging system is proposed as an alternative model to augment the accuracy of survival prognostication and treatment performance for patients with pCCA.
| S-EPMC9561347 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionParotid-gland carcinoma (PGC) is a relatively rare tumor that comprises a group of heterogeneous histologic subtypes. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database to apply a competing-risks analysis to PGC patients, and then established and validated predictive nomograms for PGC.MethodsSpecific screening criteria were applied to identify PGC patients and extract their clinical and other characteristics from the SEER database. We used the cumulative incidence function to estimate the cumulative incidence rates of PGC-specific death (GCD) and other cause-specific death (OCD), and tested for differences between groups using Gray's test. We then identified independent prognostic factors by applying the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard approach, and constructed predictive nomograms based on the results. Calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index) were employed to validate the nomograms.ResultsWe finally identified 4,075 eligible PGC patients who had been added to the SEER database from 2004 to 2015. Their 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence rates of GCD were 10.1%, 21.6%, and 25.7%, respectively, while those of OCD were 2.9%, 6.6%, and 9.0%. Age, race, World Health Organization histologic risk classification, differentiation grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T stage, AJCC N stage, AJCC M stage, and RS (radiotherapy and surgery status) were independent predictors of GCD, while those of OCD were age, sex, marital status, AJCC T stage, AJCC M stage, and RS. These factors were integrated for constructing predictive nomograms. The results for calibration curves and the C-index suggested that the nomograms were well calibrated and had good discrimination ability.ConclusionWe have used the SEER database to establish-to the best of our knowledge-the first competing-risks nomograms for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cause-specific mortality in PGC. The nomograms showed relatively good performance and can be used in clinical practice to assist clinicians in individualized treatment decision-making.
| S-EPMC8178487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system was released with major revisions. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate differences between the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system and to compare the predictability of prognosis between the two staging systems with patients who underwent thyroidectomy for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) at a single institution. Methods:A total of 3238 patients underwent thyroid operation from January 2002 to December 2006 at Yonsei University Hospital (Seoul, Korea), of which 2294 with complete clinical data and sustained follow up were enrolled. Clinicopathologic features and TNM staging by applying the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC were analyzed retrospectively by the complete review of medical charts and pathology reports of patients. Mean follow-up duration was 132.9?±?27.9?months. Results:A significant number of T3 patients were downstaged to T1 (838, 36.5%) and T2 (122, 5.3%). After applying the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system, the number of stage?I patients increased significantly from 1434 (62.5%) to 2058 (89.7%), whereas numbers of stage III and IV patients decreased significantly from 644 (28.1%) to 33 (1.4%) and from 199 (8.7%) to 17 (0.7%), respectively. According to Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and values of the Harrell's c-index and integrated area under the curve (iAUC), the 8th edition has significantly better predictive performance for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) than the 7th edition. Conclusions:A significant population was downstaged after applying the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system, and the 8th edition provided significantly better accuracy in predicting DFS and DSS in patients with DTC.
| S-EPMC7238312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose: To evaluate and improve the 7th edition International Union against Cancer/American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Methods: A retrospective review of the data from 905 patients with biopsy-proven non-disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma was performed. All the patients were examined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and received radiotherapy. Results: Satisfied distributions among the stages were observed in the 7th edition staging systems. LRFS only differed in classifications betweenT1 and T3, T1 and T4 (P=0.022 and P=0.016, respectively). Significant differences were observed between patients without and with masticator space involvement for OS, DMFS and PFS (p<0.05). No statistically significant differences in LRFS were observed among different groups with anatomical masticator space involvement. The DMFS between N2 and N3b, N3a and N3b were lack of significance (P=0.060 and P=0.59). The T category and N category were independent prognostic factors for the major endpoints in the Cox multivariate regression analysis (P<0.01). Conclusion: This study confirmed the prognostic value of the 7th edition UICC/AJCC staging system, the revisions of the 7th edition staging system are acceptable. However, our study also revealed limitations in the current staging system and suggested some potential modifications in future revision.
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