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Development of An Individualized Risk Prediction Model for COVID-19 Using Electronic Health Record Data.

ABSTRACT: Developing an accurate and interpretable model to predict an individual's risk for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a critical step to efficiently triage testing and other scarce preventative resources. To aid in this effort, we have developed an interpretable risk calculator that utilized de-identified electronic health records (EHR) from the University of Alabama at Birmingham Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (UAB-i2b2) COVID-19 repository under the U-BRITE framework. The generated risk scores are analogous to commonly used credit scores where higher scores indicate higher risks for COVID-19 infection. By design, these risk scores can easily be calculated in spreadsheets or even with pen and paper. To predict risk, we implemented a Credit Scorecard modeling approach on longitudinal EHR data from 7,262 patients enrolled in the UAB Health System who were evaluated and/or tested for COVID-19 between January and June 2020. In this cohort, 912 patients were positive for COVID-19. Our workflow considered the timing of symptoms and medical conditions and tested the effects by applying different variable selection techniques such as LASSO and Elastic-Net. Within the two weeks before a COVID-19 diagnosis, the most predictive features were respiratory symptoms such as cough, abnormalities of breathing, pain in the throat and chest as well as other chronic conditions including nicotine dependence and major depressive disorder. When extending the timeframe to include all medical conditions across all time, our models also uncovered several chronic conditions impacting the respiratory, cardiovascular, central nervous and urinary organ systems. The whole pipeline of data processing, risk modeling and web-based risk calculator can be applied to any EHR data following the OMOP common data format. The results can be employed to generate questionnaires to estimate COVID-19 risk for screening in building entries or to optimize hospital resources.

SUBMITTER: Mamidi TKK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8211871 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and has strikingly heterogeneous clinical manifestations, with most individuals contracting mild disease but a substantial minority experiencing fulminant cardiopulmonary symptoms or death. The clinical covariates and the laboratory tests performed on a patient provide robust statistics to guide clinical treatment. Deep learning approaches on a data set of this nature enable patient stratification and provide methods to guide clinical treatment.ObjectiveHere, we report on the development and prospective validation of a state-of-the-art machine learning model to provide mortality prediction shortly after confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Mayo Clinic patient population.MethodsWe retrospectively constructed one of the largest reported and most geographically diverse laboratory information system and electronic health record of COVID-19 data sets in the published literature, which included 11,807 patients residing in 41 states of the United States of America and treated at medical sites across 5 states in 3 time zones. Traditional machine learning models were evaluated independently as well as in a stacked learner approach by using AutoGluon, and various recurrent neural network architectures were considered. The traditional machine learning models were implemented using the AutoGluon-Tabular framework, whereas the recurrent neural networks utilized the TensorFlow Keras framework. We trained these models to operate solely using routine laboratory measurements and clinical covariates available within 72 hours of a patient's first positive COVID-19 nucleic acid test result.ResultsThe GRU-D recurrent neural network achieved peak cross-validation performance with 0.938 (SE 0.004) as the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. This model retained strong performance by reducing the follow-up time to 12 hours (0.916 [SE 0.005] AUROC), and the leave-one-out feature importance analysis indicated that the most independently valuable features were age, Charlson comorbidity index, minimum oxygen saturation, fibrinogen level, and serum iron level. In the prospective testing cohort, this model provided an AUROC of 0.901 and a statistically significant difference in survival (P<.001, hazard ratio for those predicted to survive, 95% CI 0.043-0.106).ConclusionsOur deep learning approach using GRU-D provides an alert system to flag mortality for COVID-19-positive patients by using clinical covariates and laboratory values within a 72-hour window after the first positive nucleic acid test result.

Project description:BackgroundPredicting outcomes of patients with COVID-19 at an early stage is crucial for optimised clinical care and resource management, especially during a pandemic. Although multiple machine learning models have been proposed to address this issue, because of their requirements for extensive data preprocessing and feature engineering, they have not been validated or implemented outside of their original study site. Therefore, we aimed to develop accurate and transferrable predictive models of outcomes on hospital admission for patients with COVID-19.MethodsIn this study, we developed recurrent neural network-based models (CovRNN) to predict the outcomes of patients with COVID-19 by use of available electronic health record data on admission to hospital, without the need for specific feature selection or missing data imputation. CovRNN was designed to predict three outcomes: in-hospital mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and prolonged hospital stay (>7 days). For in-hospital mortality and mechanical ventilation, CovRNN produced time-to-event risk scores (survival prediction; evaluated by the concordance index) and all-time risk scores (binary prediction; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] was the main metric); we only trained a binary classification model for prolonged hospital stay. For binary classification tasks, we compared CovRNN against traditional machine learning algorithms: logistic regression and light gradient boost machine. Our models were trained and validated on the heterogeneous, deidentified data of 247 960 patients with COVID-19 from 87 US health-care systems derived from the Cerner Real-World COVID-19 Q3 Dataset up to September 2020. We held out the data of 4175 patients from two hospitals for external validation. The remaining 243 785 patients from the 85 health systems were grouped into training (n=170 626), validation (n=24 378), and multi-hospital test (n=48 781) sets. Model performance was evaluated in the multi-hospital test set. The transferability of CovRNN was externally validated by use of deidentified data from 36 140 patients derived from the US-based Optum deidentified COVID-19 electronic health record dataset (version 1015; from January, 2007, to Oct 15, 2020). Exact dates of data extraction were masked by the databases to ensure patient data safety.FindingsCovRNN binary models achieved AUROCs of 93·0% (95% CI 92·6-93·4) for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, 92·9% (92·6-93·2) for the prediction of mechanical ventilation, and 86·5% (86·2-86·9) for the prediction of a prolonged hospital stay, outperforming light gradient boost machine and logistic regression algorithms. External validation confirmed AUROCs in similar ranges (91·3-97·0% for in-hospital mortality prediction, 91·5-96·0% for the prediction of mechanical ventilation, and 81·0-88·3% for the prediction of prolonged hospital stay). For survival prediction, CovRNN achieved a concordance index of 86·0% (95% CI 85·1-86·9) for in-hospital mortality and 92·6% (92·2-93·0) for mechanical ventilation.InterpretationTrained on a large, heterogeneous, real-world dataset, our CovRNN models showed high prediction accuracy and transferability through consistently good performances on multiple external datasets. Our results show the feasibility of a COVID-19 predictive model that delivers high accuracy without the need for complex feature engineering.FundingCancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas.

Project description:BackgroundSjögren's disease (SD) is an autoimmune disease that is difficult to diagnose early due to its wide spectrum of clinical symptoms and overlap with other autoimmune diseases. SD potentially presents through early oral manifestations prior to showing symptoms of clinically significant dry eyes or dry mouth. We examined the feasibility of utilizing a linked electronic dental record (EDR) and electronic health record (EHR) dataset to identify factors that could be used to improve early diagnosis prediction of SD in a matched case-control study population.MethodsEHR data, including demographics, medical diagnoses, medication history, serological test history, and clinical notes, were retrieved from the Indiana Network for Patient Care database and dental procedure data were retrieved from the Indiana University School of Dentistry EDR. We examined EHR and EDR history in the three years prior to SD diagnosis for SD cases and the corresponding period in matched non-SD controls. Two conditional logistic regression (CLR) models were built using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression. One used only EHR data and the other used both EHR and EDR data. The ability of these models to predict SD diagnosis was assessed using a concordance index designed for CLR.ResultsWe identified a sample population of 129 cases and 371 controls with linked EDR-EHR data. EHR factors associated with an increased risk of SD diagnosis were the usage of lubricating throat drugs with an odds ratio (OR) of 14.97 (2.70-83.06), dry mouth (OR = 6.19, 2.14-17.89), pain in joints (OR = 2.54, 1.34-4.76), tear film insufficiency (OR = 27.04, 5.37-136.), and rheumatoid factor testing (OR = 6.97, 1.94-25.12). The addition of EDR data slightly improved model concordance compared to the EHR only model (0.834 versus 0.811). Surgical dental procedures (OR = 2.33, 1.14-4.78) were found to be associated with an increased risk of SD diagnosis while dental diagnostic procedures (OR = 0.45, 0.20-1.01) were associated with decreased risk.ConclusionUtilizing EDR data alongside EHR data has the potential to improve prediction models for SD. This could improve the early diagnosis of SD, which is beneficial to slowing or preventing complications of SD.

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Development of An Individualized Risk Prediction Model for COVID-19 Using Electronic Health Record Data.

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