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Development of a preoperative prediction model for new-onset diabetes mellitus after partial pancreatectomy: A retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Abstract

Pancreatectomy is an invasive surgery that is sometimes associated with complications. New-onset diabetes mellitus sometimes develops after partial pancreatectomy and severely affects the patient's quality of life. This study aimed to develop a preoperative prediction model of new-onset diabetes mellitus after partial pancreatectomy, which will help patients and surgeons to achieve more easily better common decisions on regarding whether to perform partial pancreatectomy. This retrospective cohort study analyzed medical records of patients who underwent partial pancreatectomy (total pancreatectomy excluded) from April 1, 2008, to February 28, 2016, which were available in the database provided by Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan). The predictors were preoperative age, body mass index, hemoglobin A1c level, blood glucose level, and indication for partial pancreatectomy. The outcome was the development of new-onset diabetes mellitus at 1 to 12 months after partial pancreatectomy. We used a logistic regression model and calculated the scores of each predictor. To determine test performance, we assessed discrimination ability using the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with a calibration plot and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We also performed internal validation using the bootstrap method. Of 681 patients, 125 (18.4%) had new-onset diabetes mellitus after partial pancreatectomy. The developed prediction model had a possible range of 0 to 46 points. The median score was 13, and the interquartile range was 9 to 22. The C-statistics of the receiver operating characteristic curve on the score to predict the outcome was .70 (95% confidence interval [CI], .65-.75). Regarding the test performance, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (P = .17), and calibration was good. In the bootstrapped cohorts, the C-statistics was .69 (95% CI, .62-.76). We developed a preoperative prediction model for new-onset diabetes mellitus after partial pancreatectomy. This would provide important information for surgeons and patients when deciding whether to perform partial pancreatectomy.

SUBMITTER: Yamamoto-Kataoka S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213311 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:About 60% of patients with type 2 diabetes achieve remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery. No accurate method is available to preoperatively predict the probability of remission. Our goal was to develop a way to predict probability of diabetes remission after RYGB surgery on the basis of preoperative clinical criteria.In a retrospective cohort study, we identified individuals with type 2 diabetes for whom electronic medical records were available from a primary cohort of 2300 patients who underwent RYGB surgery at the Geisinger Health System (Danville, PA, USA) between Jan 1, 2004, and Feb 15, 2011. Partial and complete remission were defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. We examined 259 clinical variables for our algorithm and used multiple logistic regression models to identify independent predictors of early remission (beginning within first 2 months after surgery and lasting at least 12 months) or late remission (beginning more than 2 months after surgery and lasting at least 12 months). We assessed a final Cox regression model with a consistent subset of variables that predicted remission, and used the resulting hazard ratios (HRs) to guide creation of a weighting system to produce a score (DiaRem) to predict probability of diabetes remission within 5 years. We assessed the validity of the DiaRem score with data from two additional cohorts.Electronic medical records were available for 690 patients in the primary cohort, of whom 463 (63%) had achieved partial or complete remission. Four preoperative clinical variables were included in the final Cox regression model: insulin use, age, HbA1c concentration, and type of antidiabetic drugs. We developed a DiaRem score that ranges from 0 to 22, with the greatest weight given to insulin use before surgery (adding ten to the score; HR 5·90, 95% CI 4·41–7·90; p<0·0001). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 88% (95% CI 83–92%) of patients who scored 0–2, 64% (58–71%) of those who scored 3–7, 23% (13–33%) of those who scored 8–12, 11% (6–16%) of those who scored 13–17, and 2% (0–5%) of those who scored 18–22 achieved early remission (partial or complete). As in the primary cohort, the proportion of patients achieving remission in the replication cohorts was highest for the lowest scores, and lowest for the highest scores.The DiaRem score is a novel preoperative method to predict the probability of remission of type 2 diabetes after RYGB surgery.Geisinger Health System and the US National Institutes of Health.

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Development of a preoperative prediction model for new-onset diabetes mellitus after partial pancreatectomy: A retrospective cohort study.

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