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Prediction model for early graft failure after liver transplantation using aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin and coagulation factor.

ABSTRACT: This study was designed to build models predicting early graft failure after liver transplantation. Cox regression model for predicting early graft failure after liver transplantation using post-transplantation aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time was constructed based on data from both living donor (n = 1153) and deceased donor (n = 359) liver transplantation performed during 2004 to 2018. The model was compared with Model for Early Allograft Function Scoring (MEAF) and early allograft dysfunction (EAD) with their C-index and time-dependent area-under-curve (AUC). The C-index of the model for living donor (0.73, CI = 0.67-0.79) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF (0.69, P = 0.03) and EAD (0.66, P = 0.001) while C-index for deceased donor (0.74, CI = 0.65-0.83) was only significantly higher compared to C-index of EAD. (0.66, P = 0.002) Time-dependent AUC at 2 weeks of living donor (0.96, CI = 0.91-1.00) and deceased donor (0.98, CI = 0.96-1.00) were significantly higher compared to those of EAD. (both 0.83, P < 0.001 for living donor and deceased donor) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of living donor (0.93, CI = 0.86-0.99) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF (0.87, P = 0.02) and EAD. (0.84, P = 0.02) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of deceased donor (0.94, CI = 0.89-1.00) was significantly higher compared to both MEAF (0.82, P = 0.02) and EAD. (0.81, P < 0.001). The prediction model for early graft failure after liver transplantation showed high predictability and validity with higher predictability compared to traditional models for both living donor and deceased donor liver transplantation.

SUBMITTER: Rhu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213713 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHyperbilirubinemia occurs when the liver fails to process bilirubin properly. A disproportionate increase in direct bilirubin indicates a decreased ability of the hepatocytes to uptake and/or convert bilirubin, which may impact the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the association of direct bilirubin to total bilirubin ratio (DB/TB) with outcomes in patients with ACLF remains unclear.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted in West China Hospital of Sichuan University to assess the association between DB/TB and 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) ACLF criteria. Ordinal logistic regression models, linear regression models, and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the association between DB/TB and hepatic encephalopathy, disease severity, and outcome, respectively.ResultsA total of 258 patients with ACLF were included. The surviving patients were less likely to have liver cirrhosis and comorbidities, and their disease severities were milder than the dead. DB/TB was negatively correlated to cerebral score for hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted odds ratio: 0.01, p = 0.043), and disease severity (adjusted standardized coefficients: -0.42~-0.31, all p < 0.001), respectively. A significant 90-day mortality risk of DB/TB was observed [all adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) < 0.20 and all p ≤ 0.001]. Compared with patients with DB/TB < 0.80, patients with ACLF and DB/TB ≥ 0.80 had much lower 90-day mortality risk (all aHR < 0.75 and all p < 0.01).ConclusionDB/TB could be an independent risk factor to predict the short-term prognosis in patients with ACLF. More attention should be paid to patients with lower DB/TB due to their poorer prognosis and more urgent need for liver transplantation.Clinical trial registration:http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=56960, identifier, ChiCTR2000035013.

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Prediction model for early graft failure after liver transplantation using aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin and coagulation factor.

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