Dataset Information

Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

ABSTRACT: Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The "official" approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the "excess mortality" during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in "ordinary" years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-021-00857-y.

SUBMITTER: Cerqua A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8214048 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

Cerqua Augusto A Di Stefano Roberta R Letta Marco M Miccoli Sara S

Journal of population economics 20210619 4

Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The "official" approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the "excess mortality" during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and ave ...[more]

PMID: 34177122

Similar Datasets

Project description:Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major issue in healthcare being correlated to global inappropriate use of antibiotics. The aim of this study was to compare the data on hospital antibiotic consumption in 2020-2021 with those related to 2019 in order to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antibiotic prescriptions and appropriate use at national level and in the different geographical areas. To estimate the consumption of antibiotics, two indicators were calculated: "number of DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day" and "number of DDD per 100 hospitalisation days". Consumption data on antibiotics dispensed in public health facilities were based on the Italian "traceability of medicines" information flow. Data on hospitalisation days were extracted from the Italian "hospital discharge form" flow. Pearson correlation analysis was performed between the number of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and the consumption of antibiotics in public healthcare facilities. During 2020, about 1.7 DDD/1000 inhabitants per day (12.3% of the overall consumption of reimbursed antibiotics) were dispensed exclusively in Italian hospitals (+0.8% compared to 2019). Considering the number of DDD per 100 hospitalisation days, consumption increased by 19.3% in 2020 compared to 2019. Comparing the first semester of 2020 and 2019, a decrease of DDD/1000 inhabitants per day was observed (-1.6%) at national level, with opposite trends in the different geographical areas; an increase in the use of azithromycin and carbapenems was also observed, with a stable consumption of third-generation cephalosporins. The use of antibiotics in the second semester of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 showed a clear reduction at national level (-8.5%), appreciable to a similar extent in all geographic areas. In the first semester of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, there was a huge reduction (-31.4%) in consumption at national level. However, the variations were heterogeneous between different geographical areas. To our knowledge, this study represents the most comprehensive analysis performed on antibiotic consumption data in hospital settings in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic to date. Despite international and national guideline recommendations, a substantial overall increase in antibiotic prescriptions was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with variability in terms of geographical distribution and prescription strategies. These findings may be related to the dichotomy between perceived and real significance of guidelines, expert panels, or consensus. Therefore, new approaches or strategies to antimicrobial stewardship should be proposed.

Project description:Background and aimPatients with interstitial lung diseases, including asbestosis, showed high susceptibility to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and a high risk of severe COVID-19 symptoms. Italy, highly impacted by asbestos-related diseases, in 2020 was among the European countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases. The mortality related to malignant mesotheliomas and asbestosis in 2020 and its relationship with COVID-19 in Italy are investigated.MethodsAll death certificates involving malignant mesotheliomas or asbestosis in 2010-2020 and those involving COVID-19 in 2020 were retrieved from the National Registry of Causes of Death. Annual mortality rates and rate ratios (RRs) of 2020 and 2010-2014 compared to 2015-2019 were calculated. The association between malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) and asbestosis with COVID-19 in deceased adults ≥80 years old was evaluated through a logistic regression analysis (odds ratios: ORs), using MPM and asbestosis deaths COVID-19-free as the reference group. The hospitalization for asbestosis in 2010-2020, based on National Hospital Discharge Database, was analyzed.ResultsIn 2020, 746,343 people died; out of them, 1,348 involved MPM and 286 involved asbestosis. Compared to the period 2015-2019, the mortality involving the two diseases decreased in age groups below 80 years; meanwhile, an increasing trend was observed in subjects aged 80 years and older, with a relative mortality risks of 1.10 for MPM and 1.17 for asbestosis. In subjects aged ≥80 years, deaths with COVID-19 were less likely to have MPM in both genders (men: OR = 0.22; women: OR = 0.44), while no departure was observed for asbestosis. A decrease in hospitalization in 2020 with respect to those in 2010-2019 in all age groups, both considering asbestosis as the primary or secondary diagnosis, was observed.ConclusionsThe increasing mortality involving asbestosis and, even if of slight entity, MPM, observed in people aged over 80 years during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic, aligned in part with the previous temporal trend, could be due to several factors. Although no positive association with COVID-19 mortality was observed, the decrease in hospitalizations for asbestosis among individuals aged over 80 years, coupled with the increase in deaths, highlights the importance of enhancing home-based assistance during the pandemic periods for vulnerable patients with asbestos-related conditions.

Dataset Information

Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

Supplementary information

Publications

Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets