Major Characteristics of Severity and Mortality in Diabetic Patients With COVID-19 and Establishment of Severity Risk Score.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Xiao YF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8215148 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Effective methods for predicting COVID-19 disease trajectories are urgently needed. Here, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and coronavirus antigen microarray (COVAM) analysis mapped antibody epitopes in the plasma of COVID-19 patients (n = 86) experiencing a wide range of disease states. The experiments identified antibodies to a 21-residue epitope from nucleocapsid (termed Ep9) associated with severe disease, including admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), requirement for ventilators, or death. Importantly, anti-Ep9 antibodies can be detected within 6 days post-symptom onset and sometimes within 1 day. Furthermore, anti-Ep9 antibodies correlate with various comorbidities and hallmarks of immune hyperactivity. We introduce a simple-to-calculate, disease risk factor score to quantitate each patient’s comorbidities and age. For patients with anti-Ep9 antibodies, scores above 3.0 predict more severe disease outcomes with a 13.42 likelihood ratio (96.7% specificity). The results lay the groundwork for a new type of COVID-19 prognostic to allow early identification and triage of high-risk patients. Such information could guide more effective therapeutic intervention.
2021-04-21 | GSE172471 | GEO
Project description:COVID-19 is commonly mild and self-limiting, but in a considerable portion of patients the disease is severe and fatal. Determining which patients are at high risk of severe illness or mortality is essential for appropriate clinical decision making. We propose a novel severity score specifically for COVID-19 to help predict disease severity and mortality. 4711 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. We derived a risk model using the first half of the cohort (n?=?2355 patients) by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The severity score was validated in a second half of 2356 patients. Mortality incidence was 26.4% in the derivation cohort and 22.4% in the validation cohort. A COVID-19 severity score ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of age, oxygen saturation, mean arterial pressure, blood urea nitrogen, C-Reactive protein, and the international normalized ratio was developed. A ROC curve analysis was performed in the derivation cohort achieved an AUC of 0.824 (95% CI 0.814-0.851) and an AUC of 0.798 (95% CI 0.789-0.818) in the validation cohort. Furthermore, based on the risk categorization the probability of mortality was 11.8%, 39% and 78% for patient with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) COVID-19 severity score. This developed and validated novel COVID-19 severity score will aid physicians in predicting mortality during surge periods.
| S-EPMC7542454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeAlgorithms for classification of inpatient COVID-19 severity are necessary for confounding control in studies using real-world data.MethodsUsing Healthverity chargemaster and claims data, we selected patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between April 2020 and February 2021, and classified them by severity at admission using an algorithm we developed based on respiratory support requirements (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation, O2/NIV, invasive mechanical ventilation, IMV, or NEITHER). To evaluate the utility of the algorithm, patients were followed from admission until death, discharge, or a 28-day maximum to report mortality risks and rates overall and by stratified by severity. Trends for heterogeneity in mortality risk and rate across severity classifications were evaluated using Cochran-Armitage and Logrank trend tests, respectively.ResultsAmong 118 117 patients, the algorithm categorized patients in increasing severity as NEITHER (36.7%), O2/NIV (54.3%), and IMV (9.0%). Associated mortality risk (and 95% CI) was 11.8% (11.6-12.0%) overall and increased with severity [3.4% (3.2-3.5%), 11.5% (11.3-11.8%), 47.3% (46.3-48.2%); p < 0.001]. Mortality rate per 1000 person-days (and 95% CI) was 15.1 (14.9-15.4) overall and increased with severity [5.7 (5.4-6.0), 14.5 (14.2-14.9), 32.7 (31.8-33.6); p < 0.001].ConclusionAs expected, we observed a positive association between the algorithm-defined severity on admission and 28-day mortality risk and rate. Although performance remains to be validated, this provides some assurance that this algorithm may be used for confounding control or stratification in treatment effect studies.
| S-EPMC9088650 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study we profiled 288 new serum proteomics samples measured at admission from patients hospitalized within the Mount Sinai Health System with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection. We first computed Th1 and Th2 pathway enrichment scores by gene set variation analysis and then compared the differences in Th2 and Th1 pathway scores between patients that died compared to those that survived.
2022-06-16 | GSE178399 | GEO
Project description:Infection by SARS-CoV2 has devastating consequences on health care systems. It is a global health priority to identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes. 1955 patients admitted to HM-Hospitales from 1 March to 10 June 2020 due to COVID-19, were were divided into two groups, 1310 belonged to the training cohort and 645 to validation cohort. Four different models were generated to predict in-hospital mortality. Following variables were included: age, sex, oxygen saturation, level of C-reactive-protein, neutrophil-to-platelet-ratio (NPR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) and the rate of changes of both hemogram ratios (VNLR and VNPR) during the first week after admission. The accuracy of the models in predicting in-hospital mortality were evaluated using the area under the receiver-operator-characteristic curve (AUC). AUC for models including NLR and NPR performed similarly in both cohorts: NLR 0.873 (95% CI: 0.849-0.898), NPR 0.875 (95% CI: 0.851-0.899) in training cohort and NLR 0.856 (95% CI: 0.818-0.895), NPR 0.863 (95% CI: 0.826-0.901) in validation cohort. AUC was 0.885 (95% CI: 0.885-0.919) for VNLR and 0.891 (95% CI: 0.861-0.922) for VNPR in the validation cohort. According to our results, models are useful in predicting in-hospital mortality risk due to COVID-19. The RIM Score proposed is a simple, widely available tool that can help identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes.
| S-EPMC8065669 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults-and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. The major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. We found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·2-1·6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1·5, 95%CI 1·3-1·8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2·0, 95%CI 1·6-2·6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1·7, 95%CI 1·2-2·4), and hepatic injury (OR 1·6, 95%CI 1·2-2·0). Risk allele carriers ≤ 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2·6, 95%CI 1·8-3·9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1·5 (95%CI 1·3-1·9, interaction p-value=0·04). Amongst individuals ≤ 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31·8% (95%CI 27·6-36·2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13·9% (95%CI 12·6-15·2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those ≤ 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0·82 vs 0·84, p=0·016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. The major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality-and these are more pronounced amongst individuals ≤ 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. Funding was obtained by each of the participating cohorts individually.
| S-EPMC7987046 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic, with 10%-20% of severe cases and over 508 000 deaths worldwide.ObjectiveThis study aims to address the risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 patients and the mortality of severe patients.Methods289 hospitalized laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were included in this study. Electronic medical records, including patient demographics, clinical manifestation, comorbidities, laboratory tests results, and radiological materials, were collected and analyzed. According to the severity and outcomes of the patients, they were divided into three groups: nonsurvived (n = 49), survived severe (n = 78), and nonsevere (n = 162) groups. Clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were compared among these groups. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality and visualize the patients on a low-dimensional space. Correlations between clinical, radiological, and laboratory parameters were investigated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to determine the risk factors associated with mortality in severe patients. Longitudinal changes of laboratory findings of survived severe cases and nonsurvived cases during hospital stay were also collected.ResultsOf the 289 patients, the median age was 57 years (range, 22-88) and 155 (53.4%) patients were male. As of the final follow-up date of this study, 240 (83.0%) patients were discharged from the hospital and 49 (17.0%) patients died. Elder age, underlying comorbidities, and increased laboratory variables, such as leukocyte count, neutrophil count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), D-dimer, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) on admission, were found in survived severe cases compared to nonsevere cases. According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, elder age, a higher number of affected lobes, elevated CRP levels on admission, increased prevalence of chest tightness/dyspnea, and smoking history were independent risk factors for death of severe patients. A trajectory in PCA was observed from "nonsevere" toward "nonsurvived" via "severe and survived" patients. Strong correlations between the age of patients, the affected lobe numbers, and laboratory variables were identified. Dynamic changes of laboratory findings of survived severe cases and nonsurvived cases during hospital stay showed that continuing increase of leukocytes and neutrophil count, sustained lymphopenia and eosinopenia, progressing decrease in platelet count, as well as high levels of NLR, CRP, PCT, AST, BUN, and serum creatinine were associated with in-hospital death.ConclusionsSurvived severe and nonsurvived COVID-19 patients had distinct clinical and laboratory characteristics, which were separated by principle component analysis. Elder age, increased number of affected lobes, higher levels of serum CRP, chest tightness/dyspnea, and smoking history were risk factors for mortality of severe COVID-19 patients. Longitudinal changes of laboratory findings may be helpful in predicting disease progression and clinical outcome of severe patients.
| S-EPMC7404752 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nowadays, there are different ICU scoring systems to predict the likelihood of mortality, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Condition (APACHE), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and SAPS (Simplified Acute Physiology Score). Theses risk scores are based on the use of physiologic and other clinical data. However, the use of these score systems depend on the clinical trust in the reliability and predictions by physicians. In this work, we have evaluated the expression profile by microarray analysis from postsurgical patients with the aim of proposing a candidate set genes as a mortality risk score.
2020-05-05 | GSE132897 | GEO
Project description:The causative organism, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exhibits a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations in disease-ridden patients. Differences in the severity of COVID-19 ranges from asymptomatic infections and mild cases to the severe form, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multiorgan failure with poor survival. MiRNAs can regulate various cellular processes, including proliferation, apoptosis, and differentiation, by binding to the 3′UTR of target mRNAs inducing their degradation, thus serving a fundamental role in post-transcriptional repression. Alterations of miRNA levels in the blood have been described in multiple inflammatory and infectious diseases, including SARS-related coronaviruses. We used microarrays to delineate the miRNAs and snoRNAs signature in the peripheral blood of severe COVID-19 cases (n=9), as compared to mild (n=10) and asymptomatic (n=10) patients, and identified differentially expressed transcripts in severe versus asymptomatic, and others in severe versus mild COVID-19 cases. A cohort of 29 male age-matched patients were selected. All patients were previously diagnosed with COVID-19 using TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Waltham, Massachusetts), or Cobas SARS-CoV-2 Test (Roche Diagnostics, Rotkreuz, Switzerland), with a CT value < 30. Additional criterion for selection was age between 35 and 75 years. Participants were grouped into severe, mild and asymptomatic. Classifying severe cases was based on requirement of high-flow oxygen support and ICU admission (n=9). Whereas mild patients were identified based on symptoms and positive radiographic findings with pulmonary involvement (n=10). Patients with no clinical presentation were labelled as asymptomatic cases (n=10).
2022-03-01 | E-MTAB-10970 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:BackgroundNew York City (NYC) was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, and is home to underserved populations with higher prevalence of chronic conditions that put them in danger of more serious infection. Little is known about how the presence of chronic risk factors correlates with mortality at the population level. Here we determine the relationship between these factors and COVD-19 mortality in NYC.MethodsA cross-sectional study of mortality data obtained from the NYC Coronavirus data repository (03/02/2020-07/06/2020) and the prevalence of neighborhood-level risk factors for COVID-19 severity was performed. A risk index was created based on the CDC criteria for risk of severe illness and complications from COVID-19, and stepwise linear regression was implemented to predict the COVID-19 mortality rate across NYC zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) utilizing the risk index, median age, socioeconomic status index, and the racial and Hispanic composition at the ZCTA-level as predictors.ResultsThe COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 persons significantly decreased with the increasing proportion of white residents (βadj = - 0.91, SE = 0.31, p = 0.0037), while the increasing proportion of Hispanic residents (βadj = 0.90, SE = 0.38, p = 0.0200), median age (βadj = 3.45, SE = 1.74, p = 0.0489), and COVID-19 severity risk index (βadj = 5.84, SE = 0.82, p < 0.001) were statistically significantly positively associated with death rates.ConclusionsDisparities in COVID-19 mortality exist across NYC and these vulnerable areas require increased attention, including repeated and widespread testing, to minimize the threat of serious illness and mortality.
| S-EPMC8310407 | biostudies-literature