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Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China.

ABSTRACT: Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance data maintained by Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2005 to 2017. The individuals were divided into four age groups (≤ 5 years, 6-24 years, 25-59 years, and ≥ 60 years). The effective reproduction number (Reff), including infectivity (RI) and susceptibility (RS) was calculated to assess the transmissibility of different age groups. From 2005 to 2017, 130,768 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model fitted well with the reported data (P < 0.001). The highest transmissibility (Reff) was from ≤ 5 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34-1.17), followed by from the 6-24 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.35-1.02), from the ≥ 60 years to the 25-59 years (mean: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.29-0.86), and from the 25-59 years to 25-59 years (mean: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.21-0.78). The highest infectivity was in ≤ 5 years (RI = 1.71), and was most commonly transmitted to the 25-59 years (45.11%). The highest susceptibility was in the 25-59 years (RS = 2.51), and their most common source was the ≤ 5 years (30.15%). Furthermore, "knock out" simulation predicted the greatest reduction in the number of cases occurred by when cutting off transmission routes among ≤ 5 years and from 25-59 years to ≤ 5 years. Transmission in ≤ 5 years occurred mainly within the group, but infections were most commonly introduced by individuals in the 25-59 years. Infectivity was highest in the ≤ 5 years and susceptibility was highest in the 25-59 years. Interventions to stop transmission should be directed at these age groups.

SUBMITTER: Zhao Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8219151 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. METHODS:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex- and age-specific transmissions. RESULTS:From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 108 for SARmm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 108 for SARmf, 2.7630 × 10-8 for SARfm, and 2.1061 × 10-8 for SARff. The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10-8 for β61, 5.32 × 10-8 for β31, 4.01 × 10-8 for β34, 7.52 × 10-9 for β62, and 6.04 × 10-9 for β64. CONCLUSIONS:The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

Project description:Aging is now the most profound risk factor for almost all non-communicable diseases. Studies have shown that probiotics play a specific role in fighting aging. We used metagenomic sequencing to study the changes in gut microbes in different age groups and found that aging had the most significant effect on subjects' gut microbe structure. Our study divided the subjects (n=614) into two groups by using 50 years as the age cut-off point for the grouping. Compared with the younger group, several species with altered abundance and specific functional pathways were found in the older group. At the species level, the abundance of Bacteroides fragilis, Bifidobacterium longum, Clostridium bolteae, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Parabacteroides merdae were increased in older individuals. They were positively correlated to the pathways responsible for lipopolysaccharide (LPS) biosynthesis and the degradation of short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs). On the contrary, the levels of Barnesiella intestinihominis, Megamonas funiformis, and Subdoligranulum unclassified were decreased in the older group, which negatively correlated with the above pathways (p-value<0.05). Functional prediction revealed 92 metabolic pathways enriched in the older group significantly higher than those in the younger group (p-value<0.05), especially pathways related to LPS biosynthesis and the degradation of SCFAs. Additionally, we established a simple non-invasive model of aging, nine species (Bacteroides fragilis, Barnesiella intestinihominis, Bifidobacterium longum, Clostridium bolteae, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Megamonas funiformis, Parabacteroides merdae, and Subdoligranulum unclassified) were selected to construct the model. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the model implied that supplemented probiotics might influence aging. We discuss the features of the aging microbiota that make it more amenable to pre-and probiotic interventions. We speculate these metabolic pathways of gut microbiota can be associated with the immune status and inflammation of older adults. Health interventions that promote a diverse microbiome could influence the health of older adults.

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Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China.

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