Dataset Information

Long-term risk of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a cardiac magnetic resonance outcome study.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an appalling complication of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). There is an ongoing discussion about the optimal SCD risk stratification strategy since established SCD risk models have suboptimal discriminative power. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for SCD risk stratification compared to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) SCD risk score and traditional risk factors in an >10-year follow-up.

Methods and results

Two hundred and twenty consecutive patients with HCM and LGE-CMR were enrolled. Follow-up data were available in 203 patients (median age 58 years, 61% male) after a median follow-up period of 10.4 years. LGE was present in 70% of patients with a median LGE amount of 1.6%, the median ESC 5-year SCD risk score was 1.84. In the overall cohort, SCD rates were 2.3% at 5 years, 4.8% at 10 years, and 15.7% at 15 years, independent from established risk models. An LGE amount of >5% left ventricular (LV) mass portends the highest risk for SCD with SCD prevalences of 5.5% at 5 years, 13.0% at 10 years, and 33.3% at 15 years. Conversely, patients with no or ≤5% LGE of LV mass have favourable prognosis.

Conclusions

LGE-CMR in HCM patients allows effective 10-year SCD risk stratification beyond established risk factors. LGE amount might be added to established risk models to improve its discriminatory power. Specifically, patients with >5% LGE should be carefully monitored and might be adequate candidates for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator during the clinical long-term course.

SUBMITTER: Greulich S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8219365 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies.MethodsIn an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285).ResultsOverall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic models were developed to predict 5-year freedom from SCD. Both models adequately discriminated between patients with and without SCD events with a c-statistic of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively, and demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events in the primary and validation cohorts (validation c-statistic 0.71 and 0.72, respectively).ConclusionOur study provides a validated SCD risk prediction model with >70% prediction accuracy and incorporates risk factors that are unique to pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. An individualized risk prediction model has the potential to improve the application of clinical practice guidelines and shared decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT0403679.

Project description:BackgroundMaximal left ventricular wall thickness (MLVWT) is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). In adults, the severity of left ventricular hypertrophy has a nonlinear relationship with SCD, but it is not known whether the same complex relationship is seen in childhood. The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between left ventricular hypertrophy and SCD risk in a large international pediatric HCM cohort.MethodsThe study cohort comprised 1075 children (mean age, 10.2 years [±4.4]) diagnosed with HCM (1-16 years) from the International Paediatric Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Consortium. Anonymized, noninvasive clinical data were collected from baseline evaluation and follow-up, and 5-year estimated SCD risk was calculated (HCM Risk-Kids).ResultsMLVWT Z score was <10 in 598 (58.1%), ≥10 to <20 in 334 (31.1%), and ≥20 in 143 (13.3%). Higher MLVWT Z scores were associated with heart failure symptoms, unexplained syncope, left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, left atrial dilatation, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia. One hundred twenty-two patients (71.3%) with MLVWT Z score ≥20 had coexisting risk factors for SCD. Over a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range, 2.3-9.3), 115 (10.7%) had an SCD event. Freedom from SCD event at 5 years for those with MLVWT Z scores <10, ≥10 to <20, and ≥20 was 95.6%, 87.4%, and 86.0, respectively. The estimated SCD risk at 5 years had a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship with MLVWT Z score, peaking at Z score +23. The presence of coexisting risk factors had a summative effect on risk.ConclusionsIn children with HCM, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between left ventricular hypertrophy and estimated SCD risk. The presence of additional risk factors has a summative effect on risk. While MLVWT is important for risk stratification, it should not be used either as a binary variable or in isolation to guide implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation decisions in children with HCM.