Dataset Information

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting stroke risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

ABSTRACT: We developed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of stroke in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in northern China. Out of six machine learning algorithms studied to improve diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of the prediction model, the logistic regression algorithm showed high performance in terms of calibration and decision curve analysis. The nomogram included stratifications of sex, age, systolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, total cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol along with the history of traditional risk factors such as hypertensive, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease. The nomogram exhibited a high Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-for-fit and good calibration (P > 0.05). The analysis, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification index, the integrated discrimination improvement, and clinical use, showed that our prediction model was more accurate than the Framingham risk model in predicting stroke risk in RA patients. In conclusion, the nomogram can be used for individualized preoperative prediction of stroke risk in RA patients.

SUBMITTER: Xin F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8221354 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting stroke risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Xin Fangran F Fu Lingyu L Yang Bowen B Liu Haina H Wei Tingting T Zou Cunlu C Bai Bingqing B

Aging 20210603 11

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of stroke in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in northern China. Out of six machine learning algorithms studied to improve diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of the prediction model, the logistic regression algorithm showed high performance in terms of calibration and decision curve analysis. The nomogram included stratifications of sex, age, systolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, total cholest ...[more]

PMID: 34081620

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Project description:Predicting long-term stroke mortality is a clinically important and unmet need. We aimed to develop and internally validate a 10-year ischaemic stroke mortality prediction score. In this UK cohort study, 10,366 patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke between January 2003 and December 2016 were followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 5.47 (2.96-9.15) years. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to predict 10-year post-admission mortality. The predictors associated with 10-year mortality included age, sex, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), pre-stroke modified Rankin Score, admission haemoglobin, sodium, white blood cell count and comorbidities (atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cancer, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver disease and peripheral vascular disease). The model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling to assess optimism in discrimination and calibration. A nomogram was created to facilitate application of the score at the point of care. Mean age (SD) was 78.5 ± 10.9 years, 52% female. Most strokes were partial anterior circulation syndromes (38%). 10-year mortality predictors were: total anterior circulation stroke (hazard ratio, 95% confidence intervals) (2.87, 2.62-3.14), eGFR < 15 (1.97, 1.55-2.52), 1-year increment in age (1.04, 1.04-1.05), liver disease (1.50, 1.20-1.87), peripheral vascular disease (1.39, 1.23-1.57), cancers (1.37, 1.27-1.47), heart failure (1.24, 1.15-1.34), 1-point increment in pre-stroke mRS (1.20, 1.17-1.22), atrial fibrillation (1.17, 1.10-1.24), coronary heart disease (1.09, 1.02-1.16), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.13, 1.03-1.25) and hypertension (0.77, 0.72-0.82). Upon internal validation, the optimism-adjusted c-statistic was 0.76 and calibration slope was 0.98. Our 10-year mortality model uses routinely collected point-of-care information. It is the first 10-year mortality score in stroke. While the model was internally validated, further external validation is also warranted.

Project description:The clinical features of rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD) (RA-ILD) usually manifest to an advanced stage of lung disease, which leads the challenge of early diagnosis and the difficulty in guiding treatments for patients with RA-ILD in clinical settings. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for identifying ILD in RA patients. Through the incorporation of the level of matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) in plasma, demographics, clinical feature, and laboratory parameters of 223 RA patients (85 RA-ILD) which were grouped as training cohorts and validation cohorts, an identifying nomogram of RA-ILD was built. Candidate variables for the nomogram were screened using univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The accuracy of the diagnostic nomogram was measured via concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results showed that plasma MMP-3 protein was elevated in RA-ILD patients compared with non-ILD RA patients in both training cohorts (p = 0.0475) and validation cohorts (p = 0.0006). Following a final regression analysis, the gender of male, current smoking state, levels of circulating rheumatoid factor (RF), C-reactive protein (CRP), and MMP-3 were identified as risk factors for the construction of the nomogram. The calibration plots further showed a favorable consistency between the identifying nomogram and actual clinical findings. In consistence, the C-index (0.826 for both training cohorts and validation cohorts) indicated the satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomogram. Although the incorporation of MMP-3 failed to significantly improve identified outcomes of the nomogram as determined by DCA, including the level of circulating MMP-3 increased the diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram for ILD in RA patients. Thus, our proposed model can serve as a non-invasive tool to identify ILD in RA patients, which may assist physicians to make treatment decisions for RA patients.

Project description:BackgroundSarcopenia is linked to an unfavorable prognosis in individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Early identification and treatment of sarcopenia are clinically significant. This study aimed to create and validate a nomogram for predicting sarcopenia risk in RA patients, providing clinicians with a reliable tool for the early identification of high-risk patients.MethodsPatients with RA diagnosed between August 2022 and January 2024 were included and randomized into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multifactorial logistic regression analysis were used to screen the risk variables for RA-associated muscle loss and to create an RA sarcopenia risk score. The predictive performance and clinical utility of the risk model were evaluated by plotting the receiver operating characteristic curve and calculating the area under the curve (AUC), along with the calibration curve and clinical decision curve (DCA).ResultsA total of 480 patients with RA were included in the study (90% female, with the largest number in the 45-59 age group, about 50%). In this study, four variables (body mass index, disease duration, hemoglobin, and grip strength) were included to construct a nomogram for predicting RA sarcopenia. The training and validation set AUCs were 0.915 (95% CI: 0.8795-0.9498) and 0.907 (95% CI: 0.8552-0.9597), respectively, proving that the predictive model was well discriminated. The calibration curve showed that the predicted values of the model were basically in line with the actual values, demonstrating good calibration. The DCA indicated that almost the entire range of patients with RA can benefit from this novel prediction model, suggesting good clinical utility.ConclusionThis study developed and validated a nomogram prediction model to predict the risk of sarcopenia in RA patients. The model can assist clinicians in enhancing their ability to screen for RA sarcopenia, assess patient prognosis, make early decisions, and improve the quality of life for RA patients.

Project description:BackgroundEarly recognition and prediction of stroke mimics (SM) can avoid inappropriate recanalization therapy and delay in the management of SM etiology. The purpose of this study is to screen the predictors for SM and develop a novel predictive nomogram model for predicting SM. Meanwhile, the diagnostic performance of the nomogram model was evaluated and validated. The diagnostic efficacy of the nomogram model was also compared with four other SM structured scales.MethodsThe clinical data of eligible patients were retrospectively enrolled as training datasets from January 2020 to December 2021; and the clinical data of eligible patients were prospectively enrolled as validation datasets from February to December 2022 in stroke center, Shengjing hospital, respectively. Univariate analysis and Lasso regression were used to select the optimal predictors for the training set, and a nomogram model was constructed by multivariate logistics regression, predictive scoring based on nomogram model is performed for each subject suffering from suspected acute ischemic stroke. Area under the curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, Calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis and bootstrap sampling were performed to assess and validate the predictive performance and clinical utility of the nomogram model, and the DeLong test was used to compare the overall diagnostic performance of the nomogram model with the other four structured SM scales. The Delong test was also conducted to assess the external reliability of the SM nomogram model by comparing the predictive diagnostic performance of the validation set with the training set. Additionally, the Calibration curve was utilized to evaluate the diagnostic calibration capability of the SM nomogram model in the validation set.Results703 eligible patients (68 with SM, accounting for 9.7 %) were assigned to the training set, while 301 patients (26 with SM, accounting for 8.6 %) were assigned to the validation set. A nomogram model was then developed using these six parameters (SBP, history of epilepsy, isolated dizziness, isolated sensory impairment, headache, and absence of speech impairment symptoms), a dynamic web-based version of the nomogram was subsequently created. Comparing with four other scales, the nomogram model showed the highest overall diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.929, 95%CI = 0.908-0.947). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was conducted to assess the agreement between the predicted SM values from the model and the observed SM values. The results of the test indicated a favorable consistency (χ2 = 9.299, P = 0.3177) between the predicted and observed SM. The results obtained from the analysis of the Calibration curve, DCA curve, and CIC analysis suggested that the nomogram possesses a favorable predictive capacity and superior clinical usefulness. Furthermore, the external validation demonstrated that there is no significant difference in the overall predictive diagnostic performance between the validation set and training set (0.929 vs 0.910, P > 0.05), thereby confirming the favorable stability of the nomogram model.ConclusionOur study firstly proposed a nomogram prediction approach based on the clinical features of SM, which could effectively predict the occurrence of SM. The utilization of the nomogram in stroke center proves advantageous for the identification and evaluation of SM, thereby enhancing diagnostic decision-making and strategies employed for suspected acute stroke patients.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting stroke risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting stroke risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

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