Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread is largely unknown.Methods
Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk change across groups.Results
A simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites.Conclusions
Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection.Funding
K.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation. M.L. was supported by SeroNet cooperative agreement U01 CA261277.
SUBMITTER: Ma KC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8221808 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundDespite past and ongoing efforts to achieve health equity in the USA, racial and ethnic disparities persist and appear to be exacerbated by COVID-19.ObjectiveEvaluate neighborhood-level deprivation and English language proficiency effect on disproportionate outcomes seen in racial and ethnic minorities diagnosed with COVID-19.DesignRetrospective cohort study SETTING: Health records of 12 Midwest hospitals and 60 clinics in Minnesota between March 4, 2020, and August 19, 2020 PATIENTS: Polymerase chain reaction-positive COVID-19 patients EXPOSURES: Area Deprivation Index (ADI) and primary language MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was COVID-19 severity, using hospitalization within 45 days of diagnosis as a marker of severity. Logistic and competing-risk regression models assessed the effects of neighborhood-level deprivation (using the ADI) and primary language. Within race, effects of ADI and primary language were measured using logistic regression.ResultsA total of 5577 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were included; 866 (n = 15.5%) were hospitalized within 45 days of diagnosis. Hospitalized patients were older (60.9 vs. 40.4 years, p < 0.001) and more likely to be male (n = 425 [49.1%] vs. 2049 [43.5%], p = 0.002). Of those requiring hospitalization, 43.9% (n = 381), 19.9% (n = 172), 18.6% (n = 161), and 11.8% (n = 102) were White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic, respectively. Independent of ADI, minority race/ethnicity was associated with COVID-19 severity: Hispanic patients (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.72-5.30), Asians (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.74-3.29), and Blacks (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.94). ADI was not associated with hospitalization. Non-English-speaking (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.51-2.43) significantly increased odds of hospital admission across and within minority groups.ConclusionsMinority populations have increased odds of severe COVID-19 independent of neighborhood deprivation, a commonly suspected driver of disparate outcomes. Non-English-speaking accounts for differences across and within minority populations. These results support the ongoing need to determine the mechanisms that contribute to disparities during COVID-19 while also highlighting the underappreciated role primary language plays in COVID-19 severity among minority groups.
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Project description:BackgroundData suggest that the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ among U.S. racial/ethnic groups.PurposeTo evaluate racial/ethnic disparities in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection rates and COVID-19 outcomes, factors contributing to disparities, and interventions to reduce them. (PROSPERO: CRD42020187078).Data sourcesEnglish-language articles in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus, searched from inception through 31 August 2020. Gray literature sources were searched through 2 November 2020.Study selectionObservational studies examining SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, or deaths by race/ethnicity in U.S. settings.Data extractionSingle-reviewer abstraction confirmed by a second reviewer; independent dual-reviewer assessment of quality and strength of evidence.Data synthesis37 mostly fair-quality cohort and cross-sectional studies, 15 mostly good-quality ecological studies, and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and APM Research Lab were included. African American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and COVID-19-related mortality compared with non-Hispanic White populations, but not higher case-fatality rates (mostly reported as in-hospital mortality) (moderate- to high-strength evidence). Asian populations experience similar outcomes to non-Hispanic White populations (low-strength evidence). Outcomes for other racial/ethnic groups have been insufficiently studied. Health care access and exposure factors may underlie the observed disparities more than susceptibility due to comorbid conditions (low-strength evidence).LimitationsSelection bias, missing race/ethnicity data, and incomplete outcome assessments in cohort and cross-sectional studies must be considered. In addition, adjustment for key demographic covariates was lacking in ecological studies.ConclusionAfrican American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related mortality but similar rates of case fatality. Differences in health care access and exposure risk may be driving higher infection and mortality rates.Primary funding sourceDepartment of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, Health Services Research & Development.
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Project description: Not available
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