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Impact of screening between the ages of 60 and 64 on cumulative rates of cervical cancer to age 84y by screening history at ages 50 to 59: A population-based case-control study.

ABSTRACT: There is little empirical data on the absolute benefit of cervical screening between ages 60-64y on subsequent cancer risk. We estimate the incidence of cervical cancer up to age 84y in women with and without a cervical cytology test at age 60-64y, by screening histories aged 50-59y. The current study is a population based case-control study of women born between 1928 and 1956 and aged 60-84y between 2007 and 2018. We included all such women diagnosed with cervical cancer in England and an aged-matched random sample without cancer. Women with a hysterectomy were excluded. Exposure was cervical cytology between ages 50-64y. The main outcome was 25y cumulative risk of cervical cancer between ages 60-84y. We found that eight in every 1000 (8.40, 95%CI: 7.78 to 9.07) women without a screening test between age 50-64y develop cervical cancer between the ages of 60-84y. The risk is half: 3.46 per 1000 (95%CI: 2.75 to 4.36) among women with a test between age 60-64y but no cervical screening test at age 50-59y. The absolute difference in risk is equivalent to one fewer cancer for every 202 such women screened. The highest risk (10.01, 95%CI:6.70 to 14.95) was among women with abnormal screening at ages 50-59y and no tests 60-64y. 25y risk among women with a screening test every five years between age 50-64y was just under two in a 1000 (1.59, 95%CI:1.42 to 1.78). Results suggest the upper age of screening should be dependent on previous screening participation and results.

SUBMITTER: Castanon A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8223500 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:As life expectancy increases, the effectiveness of cervical cancer screening programs needs to be reassessed for the older population. We addressed the effect of test history in and outside organized screening at age 50-64 years on later cervical cancer risk. A case-control study was conducted by deriving 229 cases of 65-79 years old women with invasive cervical cancer in 2010-2019 from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Ten controls were matched for each case by birth year and hospital district. The effect of test uptake and abnormal results in 50-64 year olds on cancer risk was investigated using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for self-selection. Test uptake within the 50-64 years age group showed 75% lower odds of cervical cancer [adjusted OR (aOR) = 0.25; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.18-0.35]. Untested women had 4.9 times higher odds than those tested with normal results (aOR = 4.86; 95% CI, 3.42-6.92). Having at least one abnormal test result increased the odds by 2.5 when compared with only normal results but showed lower odds when compared with untested women. The importance of testing is exhibited by the result showing a reduction of odds of cancer to one-fourth for those tested compared with untested. Similarly, receiving abnormal results was protective of cancer compared with having no tests highlighting the importance of proper follow-up. Therefore, screening history should be considered when further developing cervical cancer screening programs with special interest in non-attenders and those receiving abnormal results at older ages.SignificanceTo our knowledge, this is the first study from Finnish data describing the effect of test history on later cervical cancer at older ages. Focusing on the cervical tests taken within the Finnish national screening program and outside it highlights the overall importance of having cervical tests and adds this study into the slowly increasing number of studies considering all cervical testing in Finland.

Project description:BackgroundThe relatively high incidence of cervical cancer in women at older ages is a continuing concern in countries with long-established cervical screening. Controversy remains on when and how to cease screening. Existing population-based studies on the effectiveness of cervical screening at older ages have not considered women's screening history. We performed a nationwide cohort study to investigate the incidence of cervical cancer after age 60 years and its association with cervical screening at age 61-65, stratified by screening history at age 51-60.Methods and findingsUsing the Total Population Register, we identified 569,132 women born between 1 January 1919 and 31 December 1945, resident in Sweden since age 51. Women's cytological screening records, cervical cancer occurrence, and FIGO stage (for those diagnosed with cancer) were retrieved from national registers and medical charts. We calculated the cumulative incidence of cervical cancer from age 61 to age 80 using a survival function considering competing risk, and estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of cervical cancer in relation to screening status at age 61-65 from Cox models, adjusted for birth cohort and level of education, conditioning on women's screening history in their 50s. In women unscreened in their 50s, the cumulative incidence up to age 80 was 5.0 per 1,000 women, and screening at age 61-65 was associated with a lower risk for cervical cancer (HR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.24-0.72), corresponding to a decrease of 3.3 cancer cases per 1,000 women. A higher cumulative incidence and similarly statistically significant risk decrease was seen for women with abnormal smears in their 50s. In women adequately or inadequately screened with only normal results between age 51 and age 60, the cumulative incidence of cervical cancer from age 61 to 80 was 1.6 and 2.5 per 1,000 women, respectively, and further screening at age 61-65 was not associated with statistically significant decreases of cervical cancer risk up to age 80, but with fewer cancer cases of advanced stages at age 61-65. Adjustment for potential lifestyle confounders was limited.ConclusionsIn this study, cervical screening with cytology at age 61-65 was associated with a statistically significant reduction of subsequent cervical cancer risk for women who were unscreened, or screened with abnormalities, in their 50s. In women screened with normal results in their 50s, the risk for future cancer was not sizeable, and the risk reduction associated with continued screening appeared limited. These findings should inform the current debate regarding age and criteria to discontinue cervical screening.

Project description:BackgroundThere is little consensus, and minimal evidence, regarding the age at which to stop cervical screening. We studied the association between screening at age 50-64 y and cervical cancer at age 65-83 y.Methods and findingsCases were women (n = 1,341) diagnosed with cervical cancer at age 65-83 y between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2012 in England and Wales; age-matched controls (n = 2,646) were randomly selected from population registers. Screening details from 1988 onwards were extracted from national databases. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) for different screening histories and subsequent cervical cancer. Women with adequate negative screening at age 65 y (288 cases, 1,395 controls) were at lowest risk of cervical cancer (20-y risk: 8 cancers per 10,000 women) compared with those (532 cases, 429 controls) not screened at age 50-64 y (20-y risk: 49 cancers per 10,000 women, with OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.13-0.19). ORs depended on the age mix of women because of the weakening association with time since last screen: OR = 0.11, 95% CI 0.08-0.14 at 2.5 to 7.5 y since last screen; OR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.20-0.36 at 12.5 to 17.5 y since last screen. Screening at least every 5.5 y between the ages 50 and 64 y was associated with a 75% lower risk of cervical cancer between the ages 65 and 79 y (OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.21-0.30), and the attributable risk was such that in the absence of screening, cervical cancer rates in women aged 65+ would have been 2.4 (95% CI 2.1-2.7) times higher. In women aged 80-83 y the association was weaker (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.83) than in those aged 65-69 y (OR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.09-0.17). This study was limited by an absence of data on confounding factors; additionally, findings based on cytology may not generalise to human papillomavirus testing.ConclusionsWomen with adequate negative screening at age 50-64 y had one-sixth of the risk of cervical cancer at age 65-83 y compared with women who were not screened. Stopping screening between ages 60 and 69 y in women with adequate negative screening seems sensible, but further screening may be justifiable as life expectancy increases.

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Impact of screening between the ages of 60 and 64 on cumulative rates of cervical cancer to age 84y by screening history at ages 50 to 59: A population-based case-control study.

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