Development and Validation of a Score for Screening Suicide of Patients With Neuroendocrine Neoplasms.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lu L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8225995 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundColon neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) have one of the poorest median overall survival (OS) rates among all NENs. The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system-currently the most commonly used prediction model-has limited prediction accuracy because it does not include parameters such as age, sex, and treatment. The aim of this study was to construct nomograms containing various clinically important parameters to predict the prognosis of patients with colon NENs more accurately.MethodsUsing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we performed a retrospective analysis of colon NENs diagnosed from 1975 to 2016. Data were collected from 1196 patients; almost half were female (617/1196, 51.6%), and the average age was 61.94 ± 13.05 years. Based on the age triple cut-off values, there were 396 (33.1%), 408 (34.1%), and 392 (32.8%) patients in age groups 0-55 years, 55-67 years, and ≥ 68 years, respectively. Patients were randomized into training and validation cohorts (3:1). Independent prognostic factors were used for construction of nomograms to precisely predict OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with colon NENs.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 68 years, sex, tumor size, grade, chemotherapy, N stage, and M stage were independent predictors of OS. In the validation cohort, the Concordance index (C-index) values of the OS and CSS nomograms were 0.8345 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8044-0.8646) and 0.8209 (95% CI, 0.7808-0.861), respectively. C-index also indicated superior performance of both nomograms (C-index 0.8347 for OS and 0.8668 for CSS) compared with the AJCC TNM classification (C-index 0.7159 for OS and 0.7366 for CSS).ConclusionsWe established and validated new nomograms for more precise prediction of OS and CSS in patients with colon NENs to facilitate individualized clinical decisions.
| S-EPMC8349494 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFor this study, we explored the prognostic profiles of biliary neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) patients and identified factors related to prognosis. Further, we developed and validated an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of individual patients with biliary NENs.MethodsWe included a total of 446 biliary NENs patients from the SEER database. We used Kaplan-Meier curves to determine survival time. We employed univariate and multivariate Cox analyses to estimate hazard ratios to identify prognostic factors. We constructed a predictive nomogram based on the results of the multivariate analyses. In addition, we included 28 biliary NENs cases from our center as an external validation cohort.ResultsThe median survival time of biliary NENs from the SEER database was 31 months, and the value of gallbladder NENs (23 months) was significantly shorter than that of the bile duct (45 months) and ampulla of Vater (33.5 months, p=0.023). Multivariate Cox analyses indicated that age, tumor size, pathological classification, SEER stage, and surgery were independent variables associated with survival. The constructed prognostic nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination C-index values of 0.783 and 0.795 in the training and validation dataset, respectively.ConclusionAge, tumor size, pathological classification, SEER stage, and surgery were predictors for the survival of biliary NENs. We developed a nomogram that could determine the 3-year and 5-year OS rates. Through validation of our central database, the novel nomogram is a useful tool for clinicians in estimating individual survival among biliary NENs patients.
| S-EPMC8327779 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe objective of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict 1-year overall survival (OS) and 2-year OS in patients with high-grade digestive neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) as well as to guide selection of subgroups that could benefit from systemic chemotherapy.Subjects, materials, and methodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 223 patients with NENs of the gut and hepato-biliary-pancreatic system from four centers included in the development cohort. The nomogram was externally validated in a cohort of 90 patients from another one.ResultsThe final model included lactate dehydrogenase, performance status, stage, Ki67, and site of primary tumor, all of which had a significant effect on OS. The uncorrected C-index was 0.761 for OS, and the bias-corrected C-index was 0.744. Predictions correlated well with observed 1-year and 2-year outcomes (judged by eye). The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve at 12 months and 24 months was 0.876 and 0.838, respectively. The nomogram performed well in terms of both discrimination and calibration when applied to the validation cohort, and OS was significantly different between the two groups classified by nomogram score (log-rank p < .001).ConclusionThe validated nomogram provided useful prediction of OS, which can be offered for clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis, to create clinical risk groups for informing treatment or for patient stratification by disease severity in clinical trials.Implications for practiceThe high-grade neuroendocrine neoplasms of the digestive system are rare malignancies with great heterogeneity. An overall survival nomogram was developed and externally validated in this study. Two subgroups were classified by the nomogram score, and platinum-based chemotherapy may not bring clinical benefit for the low-risk patients.
| S-EPMC7160419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveOur aim was to assess the prevalence of endocrine paraneoplastic syndromes (EPNS) in neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) and estimate its impact on patient outcomes.DesignThis is a retrospective analysis of 834 patients with NENs (611 gastrointestinal, 166 thoracic, 57 of unknown and various other primary origin). We included 719 consecutive NEN patients treated at EKPA-Laiko Hospital, Athens, Greece and 115 patients with lung carcinoid (LC) treated at Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden. EPNS diagnosis was based on standard criteria.MethodsTwenty-one patients with EPNS were detected: 16 with ectopic Cushing's syndrome (ECS), one with hypercalcaemia due to parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP) secretion, three with hypercalcitonaemia and one patient with dual secretion of calcitonin and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (?-HCG). All tumours were well-differentiated; 10 patients had Stage IV disease at diagnosis.ResultsThe prevalence of EPNS in the Greek cohort was 1.9%, whereas that of ECS among LC patients in both centres was 6.7%. Median overall survival (OS) for patients with EPNS was 160.7 months (95%CI, 86-235.4) and median event-free survival (EFS) was 25.9 months (95%CI, 0-57.2). Patients presenting with EPNS prior to NEN diagnosis had longer EFS compared to patients with synchronous or metachronous EPNS (log-rank P?=?0.013). Patients with ECS of extra-thoracic origin demonstrated shorter OS and EFS compared to patients with ECS of lung or thymic origin (log-rank P?=?0.001 and P?<?0.001, respectively). LC patients with and without ECS were comparable in 5-year and 10-year OS rates (66.7% and 33.3% versus 89.8% and 60.2%, respectively; 95%CI [189.6-300.4 months], log-rank P?=?0.94) and in median EFS, 67 versus 183 months, 95%CI [50.5-207.5], log-rank P?=?0.12).ConclusionEPNS are relatively rare in patients with NENs and mainly concern well-differentiated tumours of the foregut. Among patients with EPNS, LC-related ECS may not adversely affect patient outcomes when diagnosed prior to NEN and effectively been treated.
| S-EPMC6531606 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeveral risk factors predict clinical outcome in gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs); however, the impact of their combination has not been investigated so far.Patients and methodsA retrospective analysis of stage IV GEP-NENs was performed. Multivariate analysis for progression of disease (PD) was performed by Cox proportional hazards method to obtain a risk score. Area under the curve obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to assess the score performance. Progression-free survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsTwo hundred eighty-three stage IV GEP-NENs were evaluated, including 93 grade 1 neuroendocrine tumors (32.9%), 153 grade 2 neuroendocrine tumors (54%), and 37 grade 3 neuroendocrine carcinomas (13.1%). Independent risk factors for PD were Ki67, proportion of metastatic liver involvement, and presence of extra-abdominal metastases. The risk score was calculated as follows: (0.025 × Ki67) + [(0 if no liver metastases or liver involvement <25%) OR (0.405 if liver involvement 25%-50%) OR (0.462 if liver involvement >50%)] + [(0 if no extra-abdominal metastases) OR (0.528 if extra-abdominal metastases present)]. The risk score accuracy to predict PD was superior compared with the G grading system (area under the curve: 0.705 and 0.622, respectively). Three subgroups of patients with low, intermediate, and high risk of PD according to risk score were identified, median progression-free survival being 26 months, 19 months, and 12 months, respectively.ConclusionIn stage IV GEP-NENs, a risk score able to predict PD was obtained by combining Ki67, proportion of metastatic liver involvement, and presence of extra-abdominal metastases. The score may help to discriminate patients with different progression risk level to plan tailored therapeutic approaches and follow-up programs. The Oncologist 2017;22:409-415Implications for Practice: Clinical outcome of patients with advanced gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms is affected by several risk factors, including the proliferative index Ki67, extension of liver metastases, and the presence of distant extra-abdominal lesions. A risk score that combines these variables may help physicians dealing with these diseases to plan the optimal therapeutic approach and follow-up program.
| S-EPMC5388376 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWorldwide, nearly 800,000 individuals die by suicide each year; however, longitudinal prediction of suicide attempts remains a major challenge within the field of psychiatry. The objective of the present research was to develop and evaluate an evidence-based suicide attempt risk checklist [i.e., the Durham Risk Score (DRS)] to aid clinicians in the identification of individuals at risk for attempting suicide in the future.Methods and findingsThree prospective cohort studies, including a population-based study from the United States [i.e., the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) study] as well as 2 smaller US veteran cohorts [i.e., the Assessing and Reducing Post-Deployment Violence Risk (REHAB) and the Veterans After-Discharge Longitudinal Registry (VALOR) studies], were used to develop and validate the DRS. From a total sample size of 35,654 participants, 17,630 participants were selected to develop the checklist, whereas the remaining participants (N = 18,024) were used to validate it. The main outcome measure was future suicide attempts (i.e., actual suicide attempts that occurred after the baseline assessment during the 1- to 3-year follow-up period). Measure development began with a review of the extant literature to identify potential variables that had substantial empirical support as longitudinal predictors of suicide attempts and deaths. Next, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to identify variables from the literature review that uniquely contributed to the longitudinal prediction of suicide attempts in the development cohorts. We observed that the DRS was a robust prospective predictor of future suicide attempts in both the combined development (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.91) and validation (AUC = 0.92) cohorts. A concentration of risk analysis found that across all 35,654 participants, 82% of prospective suicide attempts occurred among individuals in the top 15% of DRS scores, whereas 27% occurred in the top 1%. The DRS also performed well among important subgroups, including women (AUC = 0.91), men (AUC = 0.93), Black (AUC = 0.92), White (AUC = 0.93), Hispanic (AUC = 0.89), veterans (AUC = 0.91), lower-income individuals (AUC = 0.90), younger adults (AUC = 0.88), and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer or questioning (LGBTQ) individuals (AUC = 0.88). The primary limitation of the present study was its its reliance on secondary data analyses to develop and validate the risk score.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that the DRS was a strong predictor of future suicide attempts in both the combined development (AUC = 0.91) and validation (AUC = 0.92) cohorts. It also demonstrated good utility in many important subgroups, including women, men, Black, White, Hispanic, veterans, lower-income individuals, younger adults, and LGBTQ individuals. We further observed that 82% of prospective suicide attempts occurred among individuals in the top 15% of DRS scores, whereas 27% occurred in the top 1%. Taken together, these findings suggest that the DRS represents a significant advancement in suicide risk prediction over traditional clinical assessment approaches. While more work is needed to independently validate the DRS in prospective studies and to identify the optimal methods to assess the constructs used to calculate the score, our findings suggest that the DRS is a promising new tool that has the potential to significantly enhance clinicians' ability to identify individuals at risk for attempting suicide in the future.
| S-EPMC8341885 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to derive and validate a score for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection screening in old people admitted to acute care units.This study was performed in the Martinique University Hospitals from retrospective cases. Patients were aged 65+, admitted to acute care units for suspected CHIKV infection in 2014, with biological testing using Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). RT-PCR was used as the gold standard. A screening score was created using adjusted odds ratios of factors associated with positive RT-PCR derived from a multivariable logistic regression model. A ROC curve was used to determine the best cut-off of the score. Bootstrap analysis was used to evaluate its internal validity.In all, 687 patients were included, 68% with confirmed CHIKV infection, and 32% with laboratory-unconfirmed CHIKV infection. Mean age was 80±8 years, 51% were women. Four variables were found to be independently associated with positive RT-PCR (fever: 3 points; arthralgia of the ankle: 2 points; lymphopenia: 6 points; absence of neutrophil leucocytosis: 10 points). The best cut-off was score ≥12; sensitivity was 87% (83%-90%) and specificity was 70% (63%-76%).This score shows good diagnostic performance and good internal validation and could be helpful to screen aged people for CHIKV infection.
| S-EPMC5560672 | biostudies-other
Project description:Purpose: Studies on early recurrence in gastrointestinal neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) and mixed adenoneuroendocrine carcinoma (MANEC) are lacking and risk factors related to early recurrence are not clear. We evaluated risk factors for early recurrence in such patients and developed a predictive scoring model. Methods: Patients undergoing curative surgery for GI-NEC or MANEC between January 2010 and January 2019 were included. Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 12 months after surgery. Risk factors for early recurrence were identified using logistic regression. Results: Of the 80 included patients, 27 developed early recurrence and 53 had no early recurrence. Independent risk factors associated with early recurrence included tumor location in the midgut/hindgut [odds ratio (OR) = 5.077, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.058-24.352, p = 0.042], alkaline phosphatase (ALP) >80 (OR = 5.331, 95% CI 1.557-18.258, p = 0.008), and lymph node ratio (LNR) >0.25 (OR = 6.578, 95% CI 1.971-21.951, p = 0.002). Risk scores were assigned to tumor location (foregut, 0; midgut/hindgut, 1), ALP (≤80, 0; >80, 1), and LNR (≤0.25, 0; >0.25, 1). Patients with a high risk (score 2-3) for early recurrence had significantly shorter disease-free survival and overall survival than those with low- (score 0) and intermediate risks (score 1) (both p < 0.001). The novel scoring model had superior predictive efficiency for early recurrence over TNM staging (area under the curve 0.795 vs. 0.614, p = 0.003). Conclusion: Tumor location, preoperative ALP, and LNR were independent factors associated with early recurrence after curative surgery for GI-NEC or MANEC. The risk scoring model developed based on these three factors shows superior predictive efficiency.
| S-EPMC8481802 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Suicide rates are up to 4 times greater in cancer compared with the general population, yet best practices for institutional suicide prevention are unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the association between suicide risk screening (SRS), clinician response, and suicide mortality at a comprehensive cancer treatment center. We conducted a naturalistic, retrospective cohort study of patients attending the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, where routine screening for suicidal intent within the Distress Assessment and Response Tool (DART-SRS) was implemented in 2010. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to evaluate the impact of DART-SRS completion on suicide mortality from 2005 to 2014. Chart audits were conducted for clinician response to suicidality, and crude suicide rates over the study period were analyzed. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Among 78 650 cancer patients, 89 (0.1%) died by suicide, of whom only 4 (4.5%) had completed DART-SRS. Among DART-SRS completers (n = 14 517), 69 (0.5%) reported suicidal intent, none of whom died by suicide. DART-SRS completion was associated with increased clinician response to suicidality (17.4% vs 6.7%, P = .04), more psychosocial service usage (30.5% vs 18.3%, P < .001), and lower suicide mortality (hazard ratio = 0.29, 95% confidence interval = 0.28 to 0.31). Crude suicide rates at the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre were lower in patients whose first contact year was after DART-SRS implementation. DART-SRS completion is associated with lower suicide mortality and increased access to psychosocial care, but patients who did not complete DART-SRS were at highest suicide risk. Further research is needed to identify mechanisms to ensure psychosocial and suicidality assessment in cancer patients who do not complete SRS.
| S-EPMC8358838 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceDespite the benefit of peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) for patients with well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (WD NETs), no clinical metric to anticipate benefit from the therapy for individual patients has been previously defined.ObjectiveTo assess whether the prognostic ability of the clinical score (CS) could be validated in an external cohort of patients with WD NETs.Design, setting, and participantsThis multicenter cohort study's analysis included patients with WD NETs who were under consideration for peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with lutetium-177 (177Lu)-dotatate between March 1, 2016, and March 17, 2020. The original cohort included patients from Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center. The validation cohort included patients from Ochsner Medical Center, Markey Cancer Center, and Rush Medical Center. Patients with paragangliomas, pheochromocytomas and neuroblastomas were excluded. Statistical analysis was performed from June to November 2021.ExposuresPRRT with 177Lu-dotatate or alternate therapies such as everolimus, sunitinib, or capecitabine plus temozolomide.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS) and was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method; a Cox proportional-hazards model adjusting for primary tumor site, tumor grade, and number of PRRT doses administered was used to analyze association between CS and outcomes.ResultsA total of 126 patients (median age [IQR] age: 63.6 [52.9-70.7] years; 64 male individuals) were included in the validation cohort, and the combined cohort (validation and original cohorts combined) had a total of 248 patients (median [IQR] patient age: 63.3 [53.3-70.3] years; 126 male individuals). In the validation cohort, on multivariable analysis, for each 2-point increase in CS, PFS decreased significantly (hazard ratio, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.64-4.16). After finding an association of the CS with PFS in the validation cohort, the original and validation cohorts were combined into the cohort for this analysis. On multivariable analysis, for each 2-point increase in CS, PFS decreased significantly (hazard ratio, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.89-3.36).Conclusions and relevanceIncreases in CS were associated with worsening PFS in the validation cohort, validating findings from the original cohort. These findings suggest that the CS, to our knowledge, represents the first clinical metric to estimate anticipated benefit from PRRT for patients with WD NETs and may be a clinical tool for patients being considered for PRRT.
| S-EPMC8771294 | biostudies-literature