Development and Validation of an Interpretable Artificial Intelligence Model to Predict 10-Year Prostate Cancer Mortality.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bibault JE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8234681 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundEarly and reliable identification of patients with sepsis who are at high risk of mortality is important to improve clinical outcomes. However, 3 major barriers to artificial intelligence (AI) models, including the lack of interpretability, the difficulty in generalizability, and the risk of automation bias, hinder the widespread adoption of AI models for use in clinical practice.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate (internally and externally) a conformal predictor of sepsis mortality risk in patients who are critically ill, leveraging AI-assisted prediction modeling. The proposed approach enables explaining the model output and assessing its confidence level.MethodsWe retrospectively extracted data on adult patients with sepsis from a database collected in a teaching hospital at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for model training and internal validation. A large multicenter critical care database from the Philips eICU Research Institute was used for external validation. A total of 103 clinical features were extracted from the first day after admission. We developed an AI model using gradient-boosting machines to predict the mortality risk of sepsis and used Mondrian conformal prediction to estimate the prediction uncertainty. The Shapley additive explanation method was used to explain the model.ResultsA total of 16,746 (80%) patients from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center were used to train the model. When tested on the internal validation population of 4187 (20%) patients, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.858 (95% CI 0.845-0.871), which was reduced to 0.800 (95% CI 0.789-0.811) when externally validated on 10,362 patients from the Philips eICU database. At a specified confidence level of 90% for the internal validation cohort the percentage of error predictions (n=438) out of all predictions (n=4187) was 10.5%, with 1229 (29.4%) predictions requiring clinician review. In contrast, the AI model without conformal prediction made 1449 (34.6%) errors. When externally validated, more predictions (n=4004, 38.6%) were flagged for clinician review due to interdatabase heterogeneity. Nevertheless, the model still produced significantly lower error rates compared to the point predictions by AI (n=1221, 11.8% vs n=4540, 43.8%). The most important predictors identified in this predictive model were Acute Physiology Score III, age, urine output, vasopressors, and pulmonary infection. Clinically relevant risk factors contributing to a single patient were also examined to show how the risk arose.ConclusionsBy combining model explanation and conformal prediction, AI-based systems can be better translated into medical practice for clinical decision-making.
| S-EPMC10985608 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe Gleason grading system has been the most reliable tool for the prognosis of prostate cancer since its development. However, its clinical application remains limited by interobserver variability in grading and quantification, which has negative consequences for risk assessment and clinical management of prostate cancer.ObjectiveTo examine the impact of an artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted approach to prostate cancer grading and quantification.Design, setting, and participantsThis diagnostic study was conducted at the University of Wisconsin-Madison from August 2, 2017, to December 30, 2019. The study chronologically selected 589 men with biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer who received care in the University of Wisconsin Health System between January 1, 2005, and February 28, 2017. A total of 1000 biopsy slides (1 or 2 slides per patient) were selected and scanned to create digital whole-slide images, which were used to develop and validate a deep convolutional neural network-based AI-powered platform. The whole-slide images were divided into a training set (n = 838) and validation set (n = 162). Three experienced academic urological pathologists (W.H., K.A.I., and R.H., hereinafter referred to as pathologists 1, 2, and 3, respectively) were involved in the validation. Data were collected between December 29, 2018, and December 20, 2019, and analyzed from January 4, 2020, to March 1, 2021.Main outcomes and measuresAccuracy of prostate cancer detection by the AI-powered platform and comparison of prostate cancer grading and quantification performed by the 3 pathologists using manual vs AI-assisted methods.ResultsAmong 589 men with biopsy slides, the mean (SD) age was 63.8 (8.2) years, the mean (SD) prebiopsy prostate-specific antigen level was 10.2 (16.2) ng/mL, and the mean (SD) total cancer volume was 15.4% (20.1%). The AI system was able to distinguish prostate cancer from benign prostatic epithelium and stroma with high accuracy at the patch-pixel level, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95). The AI system achieved almost perfect agreement with the training pathologist (pathologist 1) in detecting prostate cancer at the patch-pixel level (weighted κ = 0.97; asymptotic 95% CI, 0.96-0.98) and in grading prostate cancer at the slide level (weighted κ = 0.98; asymptotic 95% CI, 0.96-1.00). Use of the AI-assisted method was associated with significant improvements in the concordance of prostate cancer grading and quantification between the 3 pathologists (eg, pathologists 1 and 2: 90.1% agreement using AI-assisted method vs 84.0% agreement using manual method; P < .001) and significantly higher weighted κ values for all pathologists (eg, pathologists 2 and 3: weighted κ = 0.92 [asymptotic 95% CI, 0.90-0.94] for AI-assisted method vs 0.76 [asymptotic 95% CI, 0.71-0.80] for manual method; P < .001) compared with the manual method.Conclusions and relevanceIn this diagnostic study, an AI-powered platform was able to detect, grade, and quantify prostate cancer with high accuracy and efficiency and was associated with significant reductions in interobserver variability. These results suggest that an AI-powered platform could potentially transform histopathological evaluation and improve risk stratification and clinical management of prostate cancer.
| S-EPMC8567112 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Backgroundwe aimed to develop and validate a population-representative 10-year mortality risk index for older adults in England.Methodsdata were from 10,798 men and women aged 50 years and older in the population-based English Longitudinal Study of Ageing in 2002/03, randomly split into development (n = 5,377) and validation cohorts (n = 5,421). Participants were asked about their sociodemographics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and functional status in the home-based interviews. Variables that were independently associated with all-cause mortality through March 2013 in the development cohort were weighted relative to one another to develop risk point scores for the index that was calibrated in the validation cohort.Resultsthe validated 10-year mortality risk index assigns points for: increasing age (50-59 years: 0 points; 60-64: 1 point; 65-69: 3 points; 70-74: 5 points; 75-79: 7 points; 80-84: 9 points; ?85: 12 points), male (2 points), no vigorous physical activity (1 point), smoking (2 points), having a diagnosis of cancer (1 point), chronic lung disease (2 points) or heart failure (4 points), and having difficulty preparing a hot meal (2 points), pushing or pulling large objects (1 point) or walking 100 yards (1 point). In the full study cohort, 10-year mortality rates increased from 1.7% (11/664) in those with 0 points to 95% (189/199) among those with ?16 points.Conclusionthis highly predictive 10-item mortality risk index is valid in the English population aged 50 years and older. It uses simple information that is often available in research studies and patient reports, and does not require biomarker data to predict mortality.
| S-EPMC5405757 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGleason grading of prostate cancer is an important prognostic factor, but suffers from poor reproducibility, particularly among non-subspecialist pathologists. Although artificial intelligence (A.I.) tools have demonstrated Gleason grading on-par with expert pathologists, it remains an open question whether and to what extent A.I. grading translates to better prognostication.MethodsIn this study, we developed a system to predict prostate cancer-specific mortality via A.I.-based Gleason grading and subsequently evaluated its ability to risk-stratify patients on an independent retrospective cohort of 2807 prostatectomy cases from a single European center with 5-25 years of follow-up (median: 13, interquartile range 9-17).ResultsHere, we show that the A.I.'s risk scores produced a C-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.87) for prostate cancer-specific mortality. Upon discretizing these risk scores into risk groups analogous to pathologist Grade Groups (GG), the A.I. has a C-index of 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.85). On the subset of cases with a GG provided in the original pathology report (n = 1517), the A.I.'s C-indices are 0.87 and 0.85 for continuous and discrete grading, respectively, compared to 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) for GG obtained from the reports. These represent improvements of 0.08 (95% CI 0.01-0.15) and 0.07 (95% CI 0.00-0.14), respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that A.I.-based Gleason grading can lead to effective risk stratification, and warrants further evaluation for improving disease management.
| S-EPMC9053226 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of the study is to develop artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm based on a deep learning model to predict mortality using abbreviate injury score (AIS). The performance of the conventional anatomic injury severity score (ISS) system in predicting in-hospital mortality is still limited. AIS data of 42,933 patients registered in the Korean trauma data bank from four Korean regional trauma centers were enrolled. After excluding patients who were younger than 19 years old and those who died within six hours from arrival, we included 37,762 patients, of which 36,493 (96.6%) survived and 1269 (3.4%) deceased. To enhance the AI model performance, we reduced the AIS codes to 46 input values by organizing them according to the organ location (Region-46). The total AIS and six categories of the anatomic region in the ISS system (Region-6) were used to compare the input features. The AI models were compared with the conventional ISS and new ISS (NISS) systems. We evaluated the performance pertaining to the 12 combinations of the features and models. The highest accuracy (85.05%) corresponded to Region-46 with DNN, followed by that of Region-6 with DNN (83.62%), AIS with DNN (81.27%), ISS-16 (80.50%), NISS-16 (79.18%), NISS-25 (77.09%), and ISS-25 (70.82%). The highest AUROC (0.9084) corresponded to Region-46 with DNN, followed by that of Region-6 with DNN (0.9013), AIS with DNN (0.8819), ISS (0.8709), and NISS (0.8681). The proposed deep learning scheme with feature combination exhibited high accuracy metrics such as the balanced accuracy and AUROC than the conventional ISS and NISS systems. We expect that our trial would be a cornerstone of more complex combination model.
| S-EPMC8651670 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19, which is accompanied by acute respiratory distress, multiple organ failure, and death, has spread worldwide much faster than previously thought. However, at present, it has limited treatments.ObjectiveTo overcome this issue, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model of COVID-19, named EDRnet (ensemble learning model based on deep neural network and random forest models), to predict in-hospital mortality using a routine blood sample at the time of hospital admission.MethodsWe selected 28 blood biomarkers and used the age and gender information of patients as model inputs. To improve the mortality prediction, we adopted an ensemble approach combining deep neural network and random forest models. We trained our model with a database of blood samples from 361 COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China, and applied it to 106 COVID-19 patients in three Korean medical institutions.ResultsIn the testing data sets, EDRnet provided high sensitivity (100%), specificity (91%), and accuracy (92%). To extend the number of patient data points, we developed a web application (BeatCOVID19) where anyone can access the model to predict mortality and can register his or her own blood laboratory results.ConclusionsOur new AI model, EDRnet, accurately predicts the mortality rate for COVID-19. It is publicly available and aims to help health care providers fight COVID-19 and improve patients' outcomes.
| S-EPMC7759509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is increasing interest in the earlier detection of, and intervention in, patients at highest risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).AimsThe objective of this research was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for general practitioner (GP)-recorded diagnosis of COPD.MethodsWe used data from 239 Scottish GP practices; two-thirds were randomly allocated to a derivation cohort and the other third to a validation cohort. We included patients aged 35-74 years at the cohort entry date, and excluded patients with a recorded diagnosis of COPD prior to the entry date and with missing data on smoking status.ResultsThere were 480,903 patients in the derivation cohort and 247,755 in the validation cohort. The incidence of COPD in the total cohort was 5.53/1,000 patient-years of follow-up (95% confidence interval (CI), 5.46-5.60). In the derivation cohort, the COPD risk for ever- versus never-smokers was substantially higher in women (hazard ratio (HR)=9.61, 95% CI, 8.92-10.34) than in men (HR=6.72, 95% CI, 6.19-7.30). Other risk factors for both sexes were level of deprivation and a previously recorded asthma diagnosis. In the validation cohort, the model discriminated well between patients who did and those who did not develop COPD: area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.845 (95% CI, 0.840-0.850) for females and 0.832 (95% CI, 0.827-0.837) for males.ConclusionsWe have developed and validated the first risk prediction model for COPD, which has the major advantage of being populated entirely by routinely collected data and consequently may be used for clinical practice.
| S-EPMC4373306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith the rapid development of technology, artificial intelligence (AI) has been widely used in the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of a variety of diseases, including prostate cancer. Facts have proved that AI has broad prospects in the accurate diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer.ObjectiveThis study mainly summarizes the research on the application of artificial intelligence in the field of prostate cancer through bibliometric analysis and explores possible future research hotspots.MethodsThe articles and reviews regarding application of AI in prostate cancer between 1999 and 2020 were selected from Web of Science Core Collection on August 23, 2021. Microsoft Excel 2019 and GraphPad Prism 8 were applied to analyze the targeted variables. VOSviewer (version 1.6.16), Citespace (version 5.8.R2), and a widely used online bibliometric platform were used to conduct co-authorship, co-citation, and co-occurrence analysis of countries, institutions, authors, references, and keywords in this field.ResultsA total of 2,749 articles were selected in this study. AI-related research on prostate cancer increased exponentially in recent years, of which the USA was the most productive country with 1,342 publications, and had close cooperation with many countries. The most productive institution and researcher were the Henry Ford Health System and Tewari. However, the cooperation among most institutions or researchers was not close even if the high research outputs. The result of keyword analysis could divide all studies into three clusters: "Diagnosis and Prediction AI-related study", "Non-surgery AI-related study", and "Surgery AI-related study". Meanwhile, the current research hotspots were "deep learning" and "multiparametric MRI".ConclusionsArtificial intelligence has broad application prospects in prostate cancer, and a growing number of scholars are devoted to AI-related research on prostate cancer. Meanwhile, the cooperation among various countries and institutions needs to be strengthened in the future. It can be projected that noninvasive diagnosis and accurate minimally invasive treatment through deep learning technology will still be the research focus in the next few years.
| S-EPMC8921533 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Cardiac MRI measurements have diagnostic and prognostic value in the evaluation of cardiopulmonary disease. Artificial intelligence approaches to automate cardiac MRI segmentation are emerging but require clinical testing. Purpose To develop and evaluate a deep learning tool for quantitative evaluation of cardiac MRI functional studies and assess its use for prognosis in patients suspected of having pulmonary hypertension. Materials and Methods A retrospective multicenter and multivendor data set was used to develop a deep learning-based cardiac MRI contouring model using a cohort of patients suspected of having cardiopulmonary disease from multiple pathologic causes. Correlation with same-day right heart catheterization (RHC) and scan-rescan repeatability was assessed in prospectively recruited participants. Prognostic impact was assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of 3487 patients from the ASPIRE (Assessing the Severity of Pulmonary Hypertension In a Pulmonary Hypertension Referral Centre) registry, including a subset of 920 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. The generalizability of the automatic assessment was evaluated in 40 multivendor studies from 32 centers. Results The training data set included 539 patients (mean age, 54 years ± 20 [SD]; 315 women). Automatic cardiac MRI measurements were better correlated with RHC parameters than were manual measurements, including left ventricular stroke volume (r = 0.72 vs 0.68; P = .03). Interstudy repeatability of cardiac MRI measurements was high for all automatic measurements (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.79-0.99) and similarly repeatable to manual measurements (all paired t test P > .05). Automated right ventricle and left ventricle cardiac MRI measurements were associated with mortality in patients suspected of having pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion An automatic cardiac MRI measurement approach was developed and tested in a large cohort of patients, including a broad spectrum of right ventricular and left ventricular conditions, with internal and external testing. Fully automatic cardiac MRI assessment correlated strongly with invasive hemodynamics, had prognostic value, were highly repeatable, and showed excellent generalizability. Clinical trial registration no. NCT03841344 Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Ambale-Venkatesh and Lima in this issue. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on June 27, 2022.
| S-EPMC9527336 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are starting to be used in IVF, in particular for selecting which embryos to transfer to the woman. AI has the potential to process complex data sets, to be better at identifying subtle but important patterns, and to be more objective than humans when evaluating embryos. However, a current review of the literature shows much work is still needed before AI can be ethically implemented for this purpose. No randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been published, and the efficacy studies which exist demonstrate that algorithms can broadly differentiate well between 'good-' and 'poor-' quality embryos but not necessarily between embryos of similar quality, which is the actual clinical need. Almost universally, the AI models were opaque ('black-box') in that at least some part of the process was uninterpretable. This gives rise to a number of epistemic and ethical concerns, including problems with trust, the possibility of using algorithms that generalize poorly to different populations, adverse economic implications for IVF clinics, potential misrepresentation of patient values, broader societal implications, a responsibility gap in the case of poor selection choices and introduction of a more paternalistic decision-making process. Use of interpretable models, which are constrained so that a human can easily understand and explain them, could overcome these concerns. The contribution of AI to IVF is potentially significant, but we recommend that AI models used in this field should be interpretable, and rigorously evaluated with RCTs before implementation. We also recommend long-term follow-up of children born after AI for embryo selection, regulatory oversight for implementation, and public availability of data and code to enable research teams to independently reproduce and validate existing models.
| S-EPMC8687137 | biostudies-literature