Risk predictors of progression to severe disease during the febrile phase of dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sangkaew S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8240557 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundDengue is a major public health issue worldwide and severe dengue (SD) is life threatening. It is critical to triage patients with dengue infection in the early stage. However, there is limited knowledge on early indicators of SD. The objective of this study is to identify risk factors for the prognosis of SD and try to find out some potential predictive factors for SD from dengue fever (DF) in the early of infection.MethodsThe PubMed, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant studies from June 1999 to December 2020. The pooled odds ratio (OR) or standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of identified factors was calculated using a fixed or random effect model in the meta-analysis. Tests for heterogeneity, publication bias, subgroup analyses, meta-regression, and a sensitivity analysis were further performed.FindingsA total of 6,848 candidate articles were retrieved, 87 studies with 35,184 DF and 8,173 SD cases met the eligibility criteria. A total of 64 factors were identified, including population and virus characteristics, clinical symptoms and signs, laboratory biomarkers, cytokines, and chemokines; of these factors, 34 were found to be significantly different between DF and SD, while the other 30 factors were not significantly different between the two groups after pooling the data from the relevant studies. Additionally, 9 factors were positive associated with SD within 7 days after illness when the timing subgroup analysis were performed.ConclusionsPractical factors and biomarkers for the identification of SD were established, which will be helpful for a prompt diagnosis and early effective treatment for those at greatest risk. These outcomes also enhance our knowledge of the clinical manifestations and pathogenesis of SD.
| S-EPMC9012395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2-27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%-51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1-24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%-38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0-34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%-47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.
| S-EPMC4306847 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background COVID-19 pandemic has created a need to identify potential predictors of severe disease. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of gastrointestinal predictors of severe COVID-19. Methods An extensive literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane. Odds ratio (OR) and mean difference (MD) were calculated for proportional and continuous outcomes using a random-effect model. For each outcome, a 95% confidence interval (CI) and P-value were generated. Results A total of 83 studies (26912 patients, mean age 43.5±16.4 years, 48.2% female) were included. Gastrointestinal predictors of severe COVID-19 included the presence of diarrhea (OR 1.50, 95%CI 1.10-2.03; P=0.01), elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (OR 4.00, 95%CI 3.02-5.28; P<0.001), and elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (OR 2.54, 95%CI 1.91-3.37; P<0.001). Significantly higher levels of mean AST (MD 14.78 U/L, 95%CI 11.70-17.86 U/L; P<0.001), ALT (MD 11.87 U/L, 95%CI 9.23-14.52 U/L; P<0.001), and total bilirubin (MD 2.08 mmol/L, 95%CI 1.36-2.80 mmol/L; P<0.001) were observed in the severe COVID-19 group compared to non-severe COVID-19 group. Conclusion Gastrointestinal symptoms and biomarkers should be assessed early to recognize severe COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7599357 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionPediatric acute pancreatitis (PAP) has an increasing incidence and is now estimated to be almost as common as in adults. Up to 30% of patients with PAP will develop moderate or severe disease course (M/SPAP), characterized by organ failure, local or systemic complications. There is still no consensus regarding on-admission severity prediction in these patients. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of available predictive score systems and parameters, and differences between on-admission parameters in mild and M/SPAP.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search on the 14th February, 2022 in MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL. We performed random-effects meta-analysis of on-admission differences between mild and M/SPAP in laboratory parameters, etiology, demographic factors, etc. calculating risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and created forest plots. For the meta-analysis of predictive score systems, we generated hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves using a bivariate model. Chi-squared tests were performed and I2 values calculated to assess statistical heterogeneity.ResultsWe included 44 studies - mostly retrospective cohorts - in our review. Among predictive score systems examined by at least 5 studies, the modified Glasgow scale had the highest specificity (91.5% for values ≥3), and the Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis Severity score the highest sensitivity (63.1% for values ≥3). The performance of other proposed score systems and values were summarized. Traumatic (RR: 1.70 95% CI: 1.09-2.67) and drug-induced (RR: 1.33 95% CI: 0.98-1.87) etiologies were associated with a higher rate of M/SPAP, while anatomical (RR: 0.6195% CI: 0.38-0.96) and biliary (RR: 0.72 95% CI: 0.53-0.99) PAP tended to be less severe.DiscussionMany predictive score systems were proposed to assess the possibility of M/SPAP course. The most commonly used ones exhibit good specificity, but subpar sensitivity. Our systematic review provides a rigorous overview of predictive options assessed thus far, that can serve as a basis for future improvement of scores via the addition of parameters with a better observed sensitivity: e.g., lipase exceeding 7-times the upper threshold, hemoglobin, etc. The addition of etiological factors is another possibility, as they can herald a more severe disease course.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=307271, PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022307271.
| S-EPMC9561825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSevere pneumonia has consistently been associated with high mortality. We sought to identify risk factors for the mortality of severe pneumonia to assist in reducing mortality for medical treatment.MethodsElectronic databases including PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Scopus were systematically searched till June 1, 2023. All human research were incorporated into the analysis, regardless of language, publication date, or geographical location. To pool the estimate, a mixed-effect model was used. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was employed for assessing the quality of included studies that were included in the analysis.ResultsIn total, 22 studies with a total of 3655 severe pneumonia patients and 1107 cases (30.29%) of death were included in the current meta-analysis. Significant associations were found between age [5.76 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] (3.43, 8.09), P < 0.00001], male gender [odds ratio (OR) = 1.47, 95% CI (1.07, 2.02), P = 0.02], and risk of death from severe pneumonia. The comorbidity of neoplasm [OR = 3.37, 95% CI (1.07, 10.57), P = 0.04], besides the presence of complications such as diastolic hypotension [OR = 2.60, 95% CI (1.45, 4.67), P = 0.001], ALI/ARDS [OR = 3.63, 95% CI (1.78, 7.39), P = 0.0004], septic shock [OR = 9.43, 95% CI (4.39, 20.28), P < 0.00001], MOF [OR = 4.34, 95% CI (2.36, 7.95), P < 0.00001], acute kidney injury [OR = 2.45, 95% CI (1.14, 5.26), P = 0.02], and metabolic acidosis [OR = 5.88, 95% CI (1.51, 22.88), P = 0.01] were associated with significantly higher risk of death among patients with severe pneumonia. Those who died, compared with those who survived, differed on multiple biomarkers on admission including serum creatinine [Scr: + 67.77 mmol/L, 95% CI (47.21, 88.34), P < 0.00001], blood urea nitrogen [BUN: + 6.26 mmol/L, 95% CI (1.49, 11.03), P = 0.01], C-reactive protein [CRP: + 33.09 mg/L, 95% CI (3.01, 63.18), P = 0.03], leukopenia [OR = 2.63, 95% CI (1.34, 5.18), P = 0.005], sodium < 136 mEq/L [OR = 2.63, 95% CI (1.34, 5.18), P = 0.005], albumin [- 5.17 g/L, 95% CI (- 7.09, - 3.25), P < 0.00001], PaO2/FiO2 [- 55.05 mmHg, 95% CI (- 60.11, - 50.00), P < 0.00001], arterial blood PH [- 0.09, 95% CI (- 0.15, - 0.04), P = 0.0005], gram-negative microorganism [OR = 2.56, 95% CI (1.17, 5.62), P = 0.02], and multilobar or bilateral involvement [OR = 3.65, 95% CI (2.70, 4.93), P < 0.00001].ConclusionsOlder age and male gender might face a greater risk of death in severe pneumonia individuals. The mortality of severe pneumonia may also be significantly impacted by complications such diastolic hypotension, ALI/ARDS, septic shock, MOF, acute kidney injury, and metabolic acidosis, as well as the comorbidity of neoplasm, and laboratory indicators involving Scr, BUN, CRP, leukopenia, sodium, albumin, PaO2/FiO2, arterial blood PH, gram-negative microorganism, and multilobar or bilateral involvement.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO Protocol Number: CRD 42023430684.
| S-EPMC11302088 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSevere dengue often leads to poor clinical outcomes and high mortality; as a result, it is of vital importance to find prognostic factors associated with the severe form of dengue. Obesity is known to deteriorate many infectious diseases due to impaired immune responses. Several studies have suggested that obese patients with dengue infection tend to have more severe manifestations with poorer prognosis. However, a firm conclusion could not be drawn due to the varied results of these studies. Here, we aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the association between obesity and dengue severity.MethodsA literature search for relevant studies was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Ovid Medline and Cochrane from inception to September 9, 2022. The two main keywords were "dengue" and "obesity". Mantel-Haenszel method and random effects model was used to analyze the pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals.ResultsA total of 15 article involving a total of 6,508 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Included patients in most studies were hospitalized pediatric patients. Only one study included adulthood data. Three cohort studies, four case-control studies, and one cross-sectional studies found a significant association between obesity and dengue severity. In contrast, three cohort studies, three case-control studies, and one cross-sectional study reported no significant relationship between obesity and dengue severity. Our analysis results showed that patient with obesity is 50% (OR = 1.50; 95%CI: 1.15-1.97) more likely to develop severe manifestation of dengue.ConclusionThis meta-analysis revealed that overweight could be a clinical predictor for severe disease for pediatric patients with dengue infection.
| S-EPMC10388491 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ABSTRACTThe World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the new dengue classification in 2009. We aimed to assess the association of clinical signs and symptoms with WHO severe dengue classification in clinical practice. A systematic literature search was performed using the databases of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus between 2009 and 2018 according to PRISMA guideline. Meta-analysis was performed with the RevMan software. A random or fixed-effect model was applied to pool odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of important signs and symptoms across studies. Thirty nine articles from 1790 records were included in this review. In our meta-analysis, signs and symptoms associated with higher risk of severe dengue were comorbidity, vomiting, persistent vomiting, abdominal pain or tenderness, pleural effusion, ascites, epistaxis, gum bleeding, GI bleeding, skin bleeding, lethargy or restlessness, hepatomegaly (>2 cm), increased HCT with decreased platelets, shock, dyspnea, impaired consciousness, thrombocytopenia, elevated AST and ALT, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection. This review shows new factors comorbidity, epistaxis, GI and skin bleeding, dyspnea, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection may be useful to refine the 2009 classification to triage severe dengue patients.
| S-EPMC8205005 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Co-infection with both Plasmodium and dengue virus (DENV) infectious species could have serious and fatal outcomes if left undiagnosed and without timely treatment. The present study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence estimate of severe malaria among patients with co-infection, the risk of severe diseases due to co-infection, and to describe the complications of severe malaria and severe dengue among patients with co-infection. METHODS:Relevant studies published between databases between 12 September 1970 and 22 May 2020 were identified and retrieved through a search of the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and MEDLINE. The pooled prevalence and 95% confidence interval (CI) of severe malaria among patients with Plasmodium and DENV co-infection was estimated with a random-effects model to take into account the between-study heterogeneity of the included studies. The risks of severe malaria and severe diseases due to co-infection were estimated with the pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI with a random-effects model. RESULTS:Of the 5653 articles screened, 13 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The results demonstrated that the pooled prevalence estimate of severe malaria among patients with co-infection was 32% (95% CI: 18-47%, I2?=?92.3%). Patients with co-infection had a higher risk of severe diseases than those with DENV mono-infection (odds ratio [OR]?=?3.94, 95% CI: 1.96-7.95, I2?=?72%). Patients with co-infection had a higher risk of severe dengue than those with DENV mono-infection (OR?=?1.98, 95% CI: 1.08-3.63, I2?=?69%). The most severe complications found in severe dengue were bleeding (39.6%), jaundice (19.8%), and shock/hypotension (17.9%), while the most severe complications found in severe malaria were severe bleeding/bleeding (47.9%), jaundice (32.2%), and impaired consciousness (7.43%). CONCLUSIONS:The present study found that there was a high prevalence of severe malaria among patients with Plasmodium and DENV co-infection. Physicians in endemic areas where these two diseases overlap should recognize that patients with this co-infection can develop either severe malaria or severe dengue with bleeding complications, but a greater risk of developing severe dengue than severe malaria was noted in patients with this co-infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION:The protocol of this study was registered at PROSPERO: CRD42020196792 .
| S-EPMC7510069 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD). We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included. On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults. Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients. This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8331184 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimTo evaluate published data on the predictors of progressive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) in order to evaluate their efficacy and level of evidence.MethodsSelection criteria(1) study design: randomized controlled clinical trials, prospective cohort studies and case series, retrospective comparative and none comparative studies; (2) participants: adolescents with AIS aged from 10 to 20 years; and (3) treatment: observation, bracing, and other.Search methodOvid MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, PubMed and patent data bases. All years through August 2014 were included. Data were collected that showed an association between the studied characteristics and the progression of AIS or the severity of the spine deformity. Odds ratio (OR), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were also collected. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the pooled OR and predictive values, if more than 1 study presented a result. The GRADE approach was applied to evaluate the level of evidence.ResultsThe review included 25 studies. All studies showed statistically significant or borderline association between severity or progression of AIS with the following characteristics: (1) An increase of the Cobb angle or axial rotation during brace treatment; (2) decrease of the rib-vertebral angle at the apical level of the convex side during brace treatment; (3) initial Cobb angle severity (> 25(o)); (4) osteopenia; (5) patient age < 13 years at diagnosis; (6) premenarche status; (7) skeletal immaturity; (8) thoracic deformity; (9) brain stem vestibular dysfunction; and (10) multiple indices combining radiographic, demographic, and physiologic characteristics. Single nucleotide polymorphisms of the following genes: (1) calmodulin 1; (2) estrogen receptor 1; (3) tryptophan hydroxylase 1; (3) insulin-like growth factor 1; (5) neurotrophin 3; (6) interleukin-17 receptor C; (7) melatonin receptor 1B, and (8) ScoliScore test. Other predictors included: (1) impairment of melatonin signaling in osteoblasts and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC); (2) G-protein signaling dysfunction in PBMC; and (3) the level of platelet calmodulin. However, predictive values of all these findings were limited, and the levels of evidence were low. The pooled result of brace treatment outcomes demonstrated that around 27% of patents with AIS experienced exacerbation of the spine deformity during or after brace treatment, and 15% required surgical correction. However, the level of evidence is also low due to the limitations of the included studies.ConclusionThis review did not reveal any methods for the prediction of progression in AIS that could be recommended for clinical use as diagnostic criteria.
| S-EPMC4539477 | biostudies-literature