Delay or avoidance of routine, urgent and emergency medical care due to concerns about COVID-19 in a region with low COVID-19 prevalence: Victoria, Australia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Czeisler ME
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242886 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria's second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2-56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9-55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important.
| S-EPMC8560916 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an adverse event of special interest (AESI) for surveillance systems monitoring adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with COVID-19 vaccines. Emerging data support a temporal association between GBS and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines. We present a case series of GBS reports submitted between February and November 2021 to our enhanced spontaneous surveillance system (SAEFVIC) in Victoria, Australia, following vaccination with either the adenovirus-vector vaccine Vaxzevria ChadOx1-S (AstraZeneca) or an mRNA vaccine (Comirnaty BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] or Spikevax mRNA-1273 [Moderna]). For each report, Brighton Collaboration case definitions were used to describe diagnostic certainty. Severity was graded using the GBS Disability Score. The observed incidence of GBS following immunisation against COVID-19 was compared to expected background ICD10-AM G61.0 coded hospitalisations. There were 41 total cases of GBS reported to SAEFVIC following Vaxzevria (n = 38), Comirnaty (n = 3), or Spikevax (n = 0) vaccines. The observed GBS incidence rate exceeded the expected background rate for Vaxzevria only, with 1.85 reports per 100,000 doses following dose 1, higher than the expected rate of 0.39 hospital admissions per 100,000 adults within 42 days of vaccination. Of 38 GBS reports following Vaxzevria, the median age at vaccination was 66 years and median onset of symptoms was 14 days following immunisation. There was one death. Four cases initially categorised as GBS were later reclassified as acute-onset chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy. Fatigue was the predominant persisting symptom reported at follow up. Additional global studies are required to characterise risk factors, clinical variability, and to provide precision and generalizability regarding AEFI risks such as GBS associated with different vaccine platforms, which will help inform communication of the potential benefits and risks of COVID19 vaccination.
| S-EPMC9637534 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPolicy responses to COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia over 2020-2021 have been supported by evidence generated through mathematical modelling. This study describes the design, key findings, and process for policy translation of a series of modelling studies conducted for the Victorian Department of Health COVID-19 response team during this period.MethodsAn agent-based model, Covasim, was used to simulate the impact of policy interventions on COVID-19 outbreaks and epidemic waves. The model was continually adapted to enable scenario analysis of settings or policies being considered at the time (e.g. elimination of community transmission versus disease control). Model scenarios were co-designed with government, to fill evidence gaps prior to key decisions.ResultsUnderstanding outbreak risk following incursions was critical to eliminating community COVID-19 transmission. Analyses showed risk depended on whether the first detected case was the index case, a primary contact of the index case, or a 'mystery case'. There were benefits of early lockdown on first case detection and gradual easing of restrictions to minimise resurgence risk from undetected cases. As vaccination coverage increased and the focus shifted to controlling rather than eliminating community transmission, understanding health system demand was critical. Analyses showed that vaccines alone could not protect health systems and need to be complemented with other public health measures.ConclusionsModel evidence offered the greatest value when decisions needed to be made pre-emptively, or for questions that could not be answered with empiric data and data analysis alone. Co-designing scenarios with policy-makers ensured relevance and increased policy translation.
| S-EPMC10219801 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown has posed numerous unique challenges for cancer patients, families and healthcare workers. However, the reports on psychosocial issues associated with such situations are scarce. This study aims to determine the psychosocial issues faced by cancer patients during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. Methods Cancer patients irrespective of diagnosis and treatment status were assessed for fear of progression (FOP), distress and quality of life (QOL) using Fear of Progression- Short Form, Distress Thermometer and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ C30) 30, respectively. The demographics, disease and treatment related details were obtained from case record form. Psychological issues and concerns were collected using a structured interview. Descriptive statistics, Mann Whitney U-test and Linear Regression were performed using SPSS ver 20.0. Results Among the 219 patients, 118 (52.5%) had either interruption in their on-going cancer treatment or the initiation of cancer treatment was delayed as a result of COVID-19 lockdown. Overall, 74% of the patients experienced distress, 55.3% experienced FOP and 58% had low global health status. Pain followed by fatigue remained as major issues among patients during lockdown. Interruption in treatment and logistical issues were strongly associated with increased distress (p = 0.026) and FOP (p = 0.004). Global health status (p = 0.037), emotional functioning (p = 0.000), social functioning (p = 0.000) and financial concerns (p = 0.046) differed significantly between patients with and without treatment interruption. Age (β = -0.159), mode of transport (β = -0.135), challenges in meeting daily needs (β = -0.245) and being out-casted by the society (β = -0.227) predicted distress. Conclusion More than half of the patients had interruptions in their treatment as a result of COVID-19 lockdown. Cancer patients have had increased physical and psychological concerns as a result of the pandemic situation and its associated changes. Specific guidelines ought to be framed for providing continued and holistic cancer care for patients during such lockdown.
| S-EPMC10021520 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveEmergency management responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in nursing homes lacked preparation and nuance; moving forward, responses must recognize nursing homes are not generic organizations or services, and individually appreciate each's unique nature, strengths, and limitations. The objective of this study was to describe an approach to stratifying nursing homes according to risk for COVID-19 outbreak.MethodsPopulation-based cross-sectional study of all accredited nursing homes in Victoria (n = 766), accommodating 48,824 permanent residents. We examined each home's facility structure, governance history, socio-economic status, proximity to high-risk industry, and proximity and size of local acute public hospital, stratified by location, size, and organizational structure.ResultsPrivately owned nursing homes tend to be larger and metropolitan-based, and publicly owned homes regionally based and smaller in size. The details reveal additional nuance, eg, privately owned metropolitan-based medium- to large-sized facilities tended to have more regulatory noncompliance, no board of governance, and fewer Chief Executive Officers with clinical background. In contrast, the smaller, publicly owned, remote facilities perform better on those same metrics.ConclusionsNursing homes should not be regarded as generic entities, and there is significant underlying heterogeneity. Stratification of nursing homes according to risk level is a viable approach to informing more nuanced policy direction and resource allocation for emergency management responses.
| S-EPMC8376849 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo determine nursing home characteristics associated with COVID-19 outbreak, outbreak size and mortality, during the second wave in Victoria, Australia.MethodPopulation-based cross-sectional study of all nursing homes in Victoria between 7 July and 13 November 2020.ResultsThere were one or more resident cases of COVID-19 in 9.7% of nursing homes (74/766). COVID-19 intrusion was more likely in larger metropolitan facilities, privately owned by large chains, with a past history of regulatory non-compliance, located close to high-risk industry. Larger outbreaks were associated with homes in metropolitan areas, accommodating 91 or more residents, with shared rooms, owned by private providers operating many (11 or more) facilities. The highest case-fatality rates were observed in homes owned by not-for-profit providers operating many facilities, located close to high-risk industry.ConclusionStratifying nursing homes according to characteristics associated with morbidity and mortality can inform risk management, prioritising emergency responses and optimising future nursing home operations.
| S-EPMC8420232 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA cornerstone of Australia's ability to control COVID-19 has been effective border control with an extensive supervised quarantine programme. However, a rapid recrudescence of COVID-19 was observed in the state of Victoria in June, 2020. We aim to describe the genomic findings that located the source of this second wave and show the role of genomic epidemiology in the successful elimination of COVID-19 for a second time in Australia.MethodsIn this observational, genomic epidemiological study, we did genomic sequencing of all laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in Victoria, Australia between Jan 25, 2020, and Jan 31, 2021. We did phylogenetic analyses, genomic cluster discovery, and integrated results with epidemiological data (detailed information on demographics, risk factors, and exposure) collected via interview by the Victorian Government Department of Health. Genomic transmission networks were used to group multiple genomic clusters when epidemiological and genomic data suggested they arose from a single importation event and diversified within Victoria. To identify transmission of emergent lineages between Victoria and other states or territories in Australia, all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences uploaded before Feb 11, 2021, were obtained from the national sequence sharing programme AusTrakka, and epidemiological data were obtained from the submitting laboratories. We did phylodynamic analyses to estimate the growth rate, doubling time, and number of days from the first local infection to the collection of the first sequenced genome for the dominant local cluster, and compared our growth estimates to previously published estimates from a similar growth phase of lineage B.1.1.7 (also known as the Alpha variant) in the UK.FindingsBetween Jan 25, 2020, and Jan 31, 2021, there were 20 451 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia, of which 15 431 were submitted for sequencing, and 11 711 met all quality control metrics and were included in our analysis. We identified 595 genomic clusters, with a median of five cases per cluster (IQR 2-11). Overall, samples from 11 503 (98·2%) of 11 711 cases clustered with another sample in Victoria, either within a genomic cluster or transmission network. Genomic analysis revealed that 10 426 cases, including 10 416 (98·4%) of 10 584 locally acquired cases, diagnosed during the second wave (between June and October, 2020) were derived from a single incursion from hotel quarantine, with the outbreak lineage (transmission network G, lineage D.2) rapidly detected in other Australian states and territories. Phylodynamic analyses indicated that the epidemic growth rate of the outbreak lineage in Victoria during the initial growth phase (samples collected between June 4 and July 9, 2020; 47·4 putative transmission events, per branch, per year [1/years; 95% credible interval 26·0-85·0]), was similar to that of other reported variants, such as B.1.1.7 in the UK (mean approximately 71·5 1/years). Strict interventions were implemented, and the outbreak lineage has not been detected in Australia since Oct 29, 2020. Subsequent cases represented independent international or interstate introductions, with limited local spread.InterpretationOur study highlights how rapid escalation of clonal outbreaks can occur from a single incursion. However, strict quarantine measures and decisive public health responses to emergent cases are effective, even with high epidemic growth rates. Real-time genomic surveillance can alter the way in which public health agencies view and respond to COVID-19 outbreaks.FundingThe Victorian Government, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, and the Medical Research Future Fund.
| S-EPMC8270762 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A rich literature finds that individuals avoid information and suggests that avoidance is driven by image concerns. This paper provides the first direct test of whether individuals avoid information because of image concerns. We build on a classic paradigm, introducing control conditions that make minimal changes to eliminate the role of image concerns while keeping other key features of the environment unchanged. Data from 6,421 experimental subjects shows that image concerns play a role in driving information avoidance, but a role that is substantially smaller than one might have expected.
| S-EPMC10558138 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis has previously been described; however specific features in the adolescent population are currently not well understood. Objective To describe myocarditis adverse events following immunisation reported following any COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in the adolescent population in Victoria, Australia. Design Statewide, population-based study. Setting Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Vaccination in the Community (SAEFVIC) is the vaccine-safety service for Victoria, Australia. Participants All SAEFVIC reports of myocarditis and myopericarditis in 12–17-year-old COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees submitted between 22 February 2021 and 22 February 2022, as well as accompanying diagnostic investigation results where available, were assessed using Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Exposures Any mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Main outcomes/Mmeasure Confirmed myocarditis as per Brighton Collaboration criteria (levels 1–3). Results Clinical review demonstrated definitive (Brighton level 1) or probable (level 2) diagnoses in 75 cases. Confirmed myocarditis reporting rates were 8.3 per 100 000 doses in this age group. Cases were predominantly male (n=62, 82.7%) and post dose 2 (n=61, 81.3%). Rates peaked in the 16–17-year-old age group and were higher in males than females (17.7 vs 3.9 per 100 000, p=<0.001). The most common presenting symptoms were chest pain, dyspnoea and palpitations. A large majority of cases who had a cardiac MRI had abnormalities (n=33, 91.7%). Females were more likely to have ongoing clinical symptoms at 1-month follow-up (p=0.02). Conclusion Accurate evaluation and confirmation of episodes of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis enabled understanding of clinical phenotypes in the adolescent age group. Any potential vaccination and safety surveillance policies needs to consider age and gender differences.
| S-EPMC9240449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is re-shaping cities and regions, as residents respond to large disruptions to employment and social interaction and threats to public health. While the impacts of COVID-19 are extensive, certain groups are more vulnerable than others. Our research examines the impact of COVID-19 on members of share houses in the state of Victoria, Australia. This cohort is more likely to be young, casually employed, living in informal arrangements and at risk of homelessness than the broader population. We propose a conceptual framework for investigating the factors driving vulnerability to shocks and the resources most likely to support individuals to respond to or recover from these shocks. We surveyed 1052 share house occupants in June 2020. We found dramatic results, with 74% losing their job or having their hours reduced, 47% experiencing a reduction in their financial situation and 50% reporting that their mental health had deteriorated. These outcomes were worse for young people, casual employees or immigrants. Our research highlights the positive influence of social support for low-income individuals. We find that government social welfare payments are the most impactful form of insurance, calling for a greater appreciation of the role of social welfare in supporting resilience following a disaster.
| S-EPMC8664763 | biostudies-literature