Dataset Information

Prediction of the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in health screening examinees: a Korean cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Almost all Koreans are covered by mandatory national health insurance and are required to undergo health screening at least once every 2 years. We aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the screening results and insurance claim data.

Methods

The National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening database was used for this study (NHIS-2020-2-146). Our study cohort consisted of 417,346 health screening examinees between 2004 and 2007 without cancer history, which was split into training and test cohorts by the examination date, before or after 2005. Robust predictors were selected using Cox proportional hazard regression with 1000 different bootstrapped datasets. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms were used to develop a prediction model for the 9-year risk of HCC development after screening. After optimizing a prediction model via cross validation in the training cohort, the model was validated in the test cohort.

Results

Of the total examinees, 0.5% (1799/331,694) and 0.4% (390/85,652) in the training cohort and the test cohort were diagnosed with HCC, respectively. Of the selected predictors, older age, male sex, obesity, abnormal liver function tests, the family history of chronic liver disease, and underlying chronic liver disease, chronic hepatitis virus or human immunodeficiency virus infection, and diabetes mellitus were associated with increased risk, whereas higher income, elevated total cholesterol, and underlying dyslipidemia or schizophrenic/delusional disorders were associated with decreased risk of HCC development (p < 0.001). In the test, our model showed good discrimination and calibration. The C-index, AUC, and Brier skill score were 0.857, 0.873, and 0.078, respectively.

Conclusions

Machine learning-based model could be used to predict the risk of HCC development based on the health screening examination results and claim data.

SUBMITTER: An C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8243543 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:AimLittle is known about the association of cancers other than esophageal adenocarcinoma with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). This study aimed to examine the association between GERD and the risk of different types of cancer.MethodsA cohort study was conducted using data from the National Health Screening Cohort. We included 10,261 GERD patients and 30,783 non-GERD individuals who were matched in a 1:3 ratio by age and sex. All participants were followed-up until cancer diagnosis, death, or end of the study (December 31, 2015). Hazard ratios were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for smoking and alcohol consumption, physical activity, body mass index, income, area, and Charlson Comorbidity Index.ResultsThe median follow-up time was 9.9 years. GERD was associated with an increased risk of esophageal (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 3.20 [1.89-5.41]), laryngeal (aHR = 5.42 [2.68-10.96]), and thyroid cancers (aHR = 1.91 [1.55-2.34]) after controlling for all covariates. The results were consistent when examining GERD with esophagitis (K210) and without esophagitis (K219) separately. For thyroid cancer, the results were insignificant after controlling for having ever-received thyroid biopsy procedures. A dose-response relationship was found between GERD and esophageal cancer as well as laryngeal cancer, with patients with a longer duration of GERD treatment showing a stronger effect. In contrast, GERD was associated with a reduced risk of colorectal (aHR = 0.73 [0.59-0.90]), liver (aHR = 0.67 [0.51-0.89]), and pancreatic cancers (aHR = 0.43 [0.24-0.76]), which might have resulted from differences in healthcare utilization between GERD and non-GERD groups.ConclusionGERD was associated with an increased risk of esophageal and laryngeal cancers. Additionally, early detection and treatment of precancerous lesions among the GERD group could lead to a lower risk of colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers.