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Mixtures modeling identifies chemical inducers versus repressors of toxicity associated with wildfire smoke.

ABSTRACT: Exposure to wildfire smoke continues to be a growing threat to public health, yet the chemical components in wildfire smoke that primarily drive toxicity and associated disease are largely unknown. This study utilized a suite of computational approaches to identify groups of chemicals induced by variable biomass burn conditions that were associated with biological responses in the mouse lung, including pulmonary immune response and injury markers. Smoke condensate samples were collected and characterized, resulting in chemical distribution information for 86 constituents across ten different exposures. Mixtures-relevant statistical methods included (i) a chemical clustering and data-reduction method, weighted chemical co-expression network analysis (WCCNA), (ii) a quantile g-computation approach to address the joint effect of multiple chemicals in different groupings, and (iii) a correlation analysis to compare mixtures modeling results against individual chemical relationships. Seven chemical groups were identified using WCCNA based on co-occurrence showing both positive and negative relationships with biological responses. A group containing methoxyphenols (e.g., coniferyl aldehyde, eugenol, guaiacol, and vanillin) displayed highly significant, negative relationships with several biological responses, including cytokines and lung injury markers. This group was further shown through quantile g-computation methods to associate with reduced biological responses. Specifically, mixtures modeling based on all chemicals excluding those in the methoxyphenol group demonstrated more significant, positive relationships with several biological responses; whereas mixtures modeling based on just those in the methoxyphenol group demonstrated significant negative relationships with several biological responses, suggesting potential protective effects. Mixtures-based analyses also identified other groups consisting of inorganic elements and ionic constituents showing positive relationships with several biological responses, including markers of inflammation. Many of the effects identified through mixtures modeling in this analysis were not captured through individual chemical analyses. Together, this study demonstrates the utility of mixtures-based approaches to identify potential drivers and inhibitors of toxicity relevant to wildfire exposures.

SUBMITTER: Rager JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8243846 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:There has been a growing interest in the literature on multiple environmental risk factors for diseases and an increasing emphasis on assessing multiple environmental exposures simultaneously in epidemiologic studies of cancer. One method used to analyze exposure to multiple chemical exposures is weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression. While WQS regression has been demonstrated to have good sensitivity and specificity when identifying important exposures, it has limitations including a two-step model fitting process that decreases power and model stability and a requirement that all exposures in the weighted index have associations in the same direction with the outcome, which is not realistic when chemicals in different classes have different directions and magnitude of association with a health outcome. Grouped WQS (GWQS) was proposed to allow for multiple groups of chemicals in the model where different magnitude and direction of associations are possible for each group. However, GWQS shares the limitation of WQS of a two-step estimation process and splitting of data into training and validation sets. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian group index model to avoid the estimation limitation of GWQS while having multiple exposure indices in the model. To evaluate the performance of the Bayesian group index model, we conducted a simulation study with several different exposure scenarios. We also applied the Bayesian group index method to analyze childhood leukemia risk in the California Childhood Leukemia Study (CCLS). The results showed that the Bayesian group index model had slightly better power for exposure effects and specificity and sensitivity in identifying important chemical exposure components compared with the existing frequentist method, particularly for small sample sizes. In the application to the CCLS, we found a significant negative association for insecticides, with the most important chemical being carbaryl. In addition, for children who were born and raised in the home where dust samples were taken, there was a significant positive association for herbicides with dacthal being the most important exposure. In conclusion, our approach of the Bayesian group index model appears able to make a substantial contribution to the field of environmental epidemiology.

Project description:BackgroundHumans are routinely and concurrently exposed to multiple toxic chemicals, including various metals and organics, often at levels that can cause adverse and potentially synergistic effects. However, toxicokinetic modeling studies of exposures to these chemicals are typically performed on a single chemical basis. Furthermore, the attributes of available models for individual chemicals are commonly estimated specifically for the compound studied. As a result, the available models usually have parameters and even structures that are not consistent or compatible across the range of chemicals of concern. This fact precludes the systematic consideration of synergistic effects, and may also lead to inconsistencies in calculations of co-occurring exposures and corresponding risks. There is a need, therefore, for a consistent modeling framework that would allow the systematic study of cumulative risks from complex mixtures of contaminants.MethodsA Generalized Toxicokinetic Modeling system for Mixtures (GTMM) was developed and evaluated with case studies. The GTMM is physiologically-based and uses a consistent, chemical-independent physiological description for integrating widely varying toxicokinetic models. It is modular and can be directly "mapped" to individual toxicokinetic models, while maintaining physiological consistency across different chemicals. Interaction effects of complex mixtures can be directly incorporated into the GTMM.ConclusionsThe application of GTMM to different individual metals and metal compounds showed that it explains available observational data as well as replicates the results from models that have been optimized for individual chemicals. The GTMM also made it feasible to model toxicokinetics of complex, interacting mixtures of multiple metals and nonmetals in humans, based on available literature information. The GTMM provides a central component in the development of a "source-to-dose-to-effect" framework for modeling population health risks from environmental contaminants. As new data become available on interactions of multiple chemicals, the GTMM can be iteratively parameterized to improve mechanistic understanding of human health risks from exposures to complex mixtures of chemicals.

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Mixtures modeling identifies chemical inducers versus repressors of toxicity associated with wildfire smoke.

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