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Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0.

ABSTRACT: The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25°) global constituent prediction system from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA's broad range of space-based and in-situ observations. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide hindcasts and 5-days forecasts of atmospheric constituents including ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). The chemistry module integrated in GEOS-CF is identical to the offline GEOS-Chem model and readily benefits from the innovations provided by the GEOS-Chem community. Evaluation of GEOS-CF against satellite, ozonesonde and surface observations for years 2018-2019 show realistic simulated concentrations of O₃, NO₂, and CO, with normalized mean biases of -0.1 to 0.3, normalized root mean square errors between 0.1-0.4, and correlations between 0.3-0.8. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the successful representation of air pollutants in many regions of the world and during all seasons, yet also highlight current limitations, such as a global high bias in SO₂ and an overprediction of summertime O₃ over the Southeast United States. GEOS-CF v1.0 generally overestimates aerosols by 20%-50% due to known issues in GEOS-Chem v12.0.1 that have been addressed in later versions. The 5-days forecasts have skill scores comparable to the 1-day hindcast. Model skills can be improved significantly by applying a bias-correction to the surface model output using a machine-learning approach.

SUBMITTER: Keller CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8244029 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0.

Keller Christoph A CA Knowland K Emma KE Duncan Bryan N BN Liu Junhua J Anderson Daniel C DC Das Sampa S Lucchesi Robert A RA Lundgren Elizabeth W EW Nicely Julie M JM Nielsen Eric E Ott Lesley E LE Saunders Emily E Strode Sarah A SA Wales Pamela A PA Jacob Daniel J DJ Pawson Steven S

Journal of advances in modeling earth systems 20210407 4

The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25°) global constituent prediction system from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA's broad range of space-based and in-situ observations. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide hindcasts and 5-days forecasts ...[more]

PMID: 34221240

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Dataset Information

Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0.

Publications

Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0.

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