Project description:India has suffered from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic since March 2021. This wave of the outbreak has been more serious than the first wave pandemic in 2020, which suggests that some new transmission characteristics may exist. COVID-19 is transmitted through droplets, aerosols, and contact with infected surfaces. Air pollutants are also considered to be associated with COVID-19 transmission. However, the roles of indoor transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of these factors in indoor environments are still poorly understood. Our study focused on reveal the role of indoor transmission in the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our results indicated that human mobility in the home environment had the highest relative influence on COVID-19 daily growth rate in the country. The COVID-19 daily growth rate was significantly positively correlated with the residential percent rate in most state-level areas in India. A significant positive nonlinear relationship was found when the residential percent ratio ranged from 100 to 120%. Further, epidemic dynamics modelling indicated that a higher proportion of indoor transmission in the home environment was able to intensify the severity of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our findings suggested that more attention should be paid to the indoor transmission in home environment. The public health strategies to reduce indoor transmission such as ventilation and centralized isolation will be beneficial to the prevention and control of COVID-19.
Project description:COVID-19 pandemic has affected all age groups globally including pregnant women and their neonates. The aim of the study was to understand outcomes in neonates of mothers with COVID-19 during the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective analysis of 2524 neonates born to SARS-CoV-2-infected mothers was conducted during the first wave (n = 1782) and second wave (n = 742) of the COVID-19 pandemic at five study sites of the PregCovid registry in Maharashtra, India. A significant difference was noted in preterm birth, which was higher in the second wave (15.0%, 111/742) compared to the first wave (7.8%, 139/1782) (P < 0.001). The proportion of neonates requiring NICU admission was significantly higher in the second wave (19.0%, 141/742) as compared to that in the first wave (14.8%, 264/1782) (P < 0.05). On comparing regional differences, significantly higher neonatal complications were reported from Mumbai metropolitan region (P < 0.05). During the second wave of COVID-19, birth asphyxia and prematurity were 3.8- and 2.1-fold higher respectively (P < 0.001). Neonatal resuscitation at birth was significantly higher in second wave (3.4%, 25/742 vs 1.8%, 32/1782) (P < 0.05). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in neonates was comparable (4.2% vs 4.6%) with no significant difference between the two waves.ConclusionHigher incidence of adverse outcomes in neonates born to SARS-CoV-2-infected mothers in the second wave of COVID-19 as compared to the first wave.Trial registrationPregCovid study is registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI/2020/05/025423, Registered on 28/05/2020).What is known• The second wave of COVID-19 was more lethal to pregnant women than the first wave. Newborns are at risk of developing complications.What is new• Birth asphyxia, prematurity, and neonatal resuscitation at birth were significantly higher in the second wave as compared to those in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India.
Project description:BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and initial public health response led to significant changes in health service delivery, access and utilisation. However, SARS-CoV-2 illness burden in children and young people (CYP) is low. To inform effective child public health interventions, we aimed to compare patterns of paediatric emergency department presentation during the initial pandemic response with a previous non-pandemic period.MethodsRetrospective review of attendances (0-18 years) over the initial pandemic (2 March 2020-3 May 2020) compared with 2019. Outcome measures included number of attendances, referral source, presenting complaint, discharge diagnosis and disposal. Descriptive statistics with subgroup analysis by age/sex/ethnicity and pandemic time periods (pre-lockdown, lockdown weeks 1-3 and lockdown weeks 4-6) was performed.Results4417 attendances (57% illness and 43% injuries) occurred, compared with 8813 (57% illness and 43% injuries), a reduction of 50%, maximal in lockdown week 2 (-73%). Ranking of top three illness presentations changed across the pandemic weeks. Breathing difficulty dropped from first (300, 25%) to second (117, 21%) to third (59, 11%) (p<0.001). Abdominal pain rose from the third pre-lockdown (87, 7%) and lockdown weeks 1-3 (37, 7%) to second in weeks 4-6 (62, 12%; p=0.004). Fever ranked second (235, 19%) in pre-lockdown and first in weeks 1-3 (134, 24%) and weeks 4-6 (94, 18%; p=0.035).ConclusionsDespite a 50% reduction, there was no significant change in acuity of illness. Rank of illness presentations changed, with abdominal pain ranking second and fever first, an important change from previous, which should prompt further research into causes. CYP-specific public health messaging and guidance for primary care are required in this second wave to ensure access to appropriate emergency services.
Project description:ObjectivesA previous survey of Canadian emergency medicine (EM) physicians during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic documented less than 20% experienced high levels of burnout. This study examined the experience of a similar group of physicians during the second pandemic wave. We reported the associations between burnout and physician age, gender, having children at home and training route.MethodsThis study utilized a national survey of Canadian emergency physicians. We collected data on demographics and measured burnout using the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Multiple logistic regression models identified associations between the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization domains of the MBI and EM physician demographics (age, gender, children living at home, and training route).ResultsBetween November 25, 2020, and February 4, 2021, 416 emergency physicians completed the survey, representing all Provinces or Territories in Canada (except Nunavut). The mean participant age was 44, 53% were male, 64% had children living at home and 41% were FRCPC and 41% CCFP-EM trained. Sixty percent reported high burnout (either high emotional exhaustion and/or high depersonalization). Increasing age was associated with lower emotional exhaustion and depersonalization; female or nonbinary gender was associated with an increase in emotional exhaustion; and having children living at home was associated with lower depersonalization.ConclusionsMost Canadian emergency physicians participating in our study during the COVID-19 pandemic reported high burnout levels. Younger physicians and female physicians were more likely than their coworkers to report high burnout levels. Hospitals should address emergency physician burnout during the pandemic because it is a threat to quality of patient care and retention of the workforce for the future.
Project description:India experienced a tragic second wave after the end of March 2021, which was far more massive than the first wave and was driven by the emergence of the novel delta variant (B.1.617.2) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this study, we explored the local and national landscape of the viral variants in the period immediately preceding the second wave to gain insight into the mechanism of emergence of the delta variant and thus improve our understanding of the causation of the second wave. We randomly selected 20 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples diagnosed in our lab between 3 February and 8 March 2021 and subjected them to whole genome sequencing. Nine of the 20 sequenced genomes were classified as kappa variant (B.1.617.1). The phylogenetic analysis of pan-India SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences also suggested the gradual replacement of the α variant with the kappa variant during this period. This relative consolidation of the kappa variant was significant, since it shared 3 of the 4 signature mutations (L452R, E484Q and P681R) observed in the spike protein of delta variant and thus was likely to be the precursor in its evolution. This study demonstrates the predominance of the kappa variant in the period immediately prior to the second wave and underscores its role as the "bridging variant" between the α and delta variants that drove the first and second waves of COVID-19 in India, respectively.
Project description:Against the backdrop of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India that started in March 2021, we have monitored the spike (S) protein mutations in all the reported (GISAID portal) whole-genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in India from 1 January 2021 to 31 August 2021. In the 43,102 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences analysed, we have identified 24,260 amino acid mutations in the S protein, based on which 265 Pango lineages could be categorized. The dominant lineage in most of the 28 states of India and its 8 union territories was B.1.617.2 (the delta variant). However, the states Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Punjab had B.1.1.7 (alpha variant) as the major lineage, while the Himachal Pradesh state reported B.1.36 as the dominating lineage. A detailed analysis of various domains of S protein was carried out for detecting mutations having a prevalence of >1%; 70, 18, 7, 3, 9, 4, and 1 (N = 112) such mutations were observed in the N-terminal domain, receptor binding domain, C -terminal domain, fusion peptide region, heptapeptide repeat (HR)-1 domains, signal peptide domain, and transmembrane region, respectively. However, no mutations were recorded in the HR-2 and cytoplasmic domains of the S protein. Interestingly, 13.39% (N = 15) of these mutations were reported to increase the infectivity and pathogenicity of the virus; 2% (N = 3) were known to be vaccine breakthrough mutations, and 0.89% (N = 1) were known to escape neutralizing antibodies. The biological significance of 82% (N = 92) of the reported mutations is yet unknown. As SARS-CoV-2 variants are emerging rapidly, it is critical to continuously monitor local viral mutations to understand national trends of virus circulation. This can tremendously help in designing better preventive regimens in the country, and avoid vaccine breakthrough infections.
Project description:The world continues in the grip of COVID-19 with devastated tourism industries and global economies. In a previous paper, it was noted that a country's failure to dampen a first wave of infection or the recurrence of a second wave would serve as disincentives for greatly needed tourists in summer 2020 and would further significantly reduce tourism revenues and potentially accelerate job losses and bankruptcies in affected countries. Countries in the first wave of infection would need to restrain COVID-19 spread swiftly in order to benefit from summer 2020 tourism. Countries that had controlled COVID-19 and who experienced second waves would manifest the same negative effects. In the case of Malta, up to the beginning of July, the country had the lowest COVID-19 numbers in Europe but this ended abruptly when two mass events took place. In a fortnight, the steep escalation of cases led to a downgrade of the country's status to a high-risk destination, with a host of European countries enacting quarantine measures. The Maltese government re-imposed restrictions and COVID-19 numbers slowly started to temporarily decline. As an economy, Malta is highly dependent on the tourism industry, with approximately 17% of GDP reliant on this sector, directly and indirectly. Malta's red listing wrought a heavy toll on the industry. The World Health Organisation has mandated clear criteria for the release of restrictions and this sequence of events should serve as a cautionary tale: heed the advice of our public health colleagues. Highlights • COVID-19 has devastated tourism and global economies.• Tourism is greatly needed to revive economies.• High levels of COVID-19 are tourist disincentives for summer 2020.• Malta had low COVID-19 numbers but two July mass events changed this.• An initial spike in tourism in the first half of August fell drastically thereafter.
Project description:A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.