Dataset Information

Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, with accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rise above 1 in late March, 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases accounted for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating Rt is critical.

SUBMITTER: Tsang TK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8244742 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Accounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong.

Tsang Tim K TK Wu Peng P Lau Eric H Y EHY Cowling Benjamin J BJ

The Journal of infectious diseases 20210901 5

Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rose above 1 in late March 2020, which was undetected ...[more]

PMID: 34086944

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Project description:ImportanceReducing maternal mortality is a global objective. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is low in Hong Kong, China, but there has been no local confidential enquiry into maternal death, and underreporting is likely.ObjectiveTo determine the causes and timing of maternal death in Hong Kong and identify deaths and their causes that were missed by the Hong Kong vital statistics database.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study was conducted among all 8 public maternity hospitals in Hong Kong. Maternal deaths were identified using prespecified search criteria, including a registered delivery episode between 2000 to 2019 and a registered death episode within 365 days after delivery. Cases as reported by the vital statistics were then compared with the deaths found in the hospital-based cohort. Data were analyzed from June to July 2022.Main outcomes and measuresThe outcomes of interest were maternal mortality, defined as death during pregnancy or within 42 days after ending the pregnancy, and late maternal death, defined as death more than 42 days but less than 1 year after end of the pregnancy.ResultsA total of 173 maternal deaths (median [IQR] age at childbirth, 33 [29-36] years) were found, including 74 maternal mortality events (45 direct deaths and 29 indirect deaths) and 99 late maternal deaths. Of 173 maternal deaths, 66 women (38.2%) of individuals had preexisting medical conditions. For maternal mortality, the MMR ranged from 1.63 to 16.78 deaths per 100 000 live births. Suicide was the leading cause of direct death (15 of 45 deaths [33.3%]). Stroke and cancer deaths were the most common causes of indirect death (8 of 29 deaths [27.6%] each). A total of 63 individuals (85.1%) died during the postpartum period. In the theme-based approach analysis, the leading causes of death were suicide (15 of 74 deaths [20.3%]) and hypertensive disorders (10 of 74 deaths [13.5%]). The vital statistics in Hong Kong missed 67 maternal mortality events (90.5%). All suicides and amniotic fluid embolisms, 90.0% of hypertensive disorders, 50.0% of obstetric hemorrhages, and 96.6% of indirect deaths were missed by the vital statistics. The late maternal death ratio ranged from 0 to 16.36 deaths per 100 000 live births. The leading causes of late maternal death were cancer (40 of 99 deaths [40.4%]) and suicide (22 of 99 deaths [22.2%]).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study of maternal mortality in Hong Kong, suicide and hypertensive disorder were the dominant causes of death. The current vital statistics methods were unable to capture most of the maternal mortality events found in this hospital-based cohort. Adding a pregnancy checkbox to death certificates and setting up a confidential enquiry into maternal death could be possible solutions to reveal the hidden deaths.

Dataset Information

Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.

Publications

Accounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong.

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