Dataset Information

The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area.

ABSTRACT: We estimate a monthly interacted-VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the state of the average outlook for the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to an uncertainty shock, the peak decrease in industrial production and inflation is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build an assessment of the role of uncertainty for a path of innovations consistent with the increase in the observed VSTOXX measure of uncertainty since the outset of the COVID-19 epidemics in February and March 2020. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of around 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels roughly in June 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations for the economic outlook. We conduct simulations that quantify the potential benefit of recovered confidence in reducing the uncertainty-induced losses associated with a possible third wave of the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Pellegrino G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8250985 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has unpredictably changed the way people live, by influencing their behaviors and beliefs. This article presents the raw data that have been used to investigate how the pandemic affected people's beliefs and expectations about their future. A total of 3991 participants (18-85 years old) were recruited through an online survey using the Qualtrics platform. The data collection was carried out during the Italian lockdown, between April 1st and April 20th, 2020. This survey collected information about psychological and socioeconomic variables related to the COVID-19 emergency. Respondents filled out a battery of questionnaires that included five measures. Three of the measures were specifically developed by the authors: 1. Expected repercussions of COVID-19; 2. Forethought scale; and 3. Perceived financial resources. The two other measures were standardized questionnaires: the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory Short Version (ZTPI-short) and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Data from tailored measures on the COVID-19 pandemic reflect people's beliefs about the future, in terms of expectation about the pandemic's effect, estimation of the time needed for the pandemic to resolve, and estimation of how long people could endure the lockdown situation from a financial perspective. The ZTPI questionnaire was administered to measure people's differences in terms of Deviation from Balanced Time Perspective (DBTP). The PANAS questionnaire, instead, was administered to investigate people's differences in terms of emotional mood states. The provided dataset could be useful to other researchers, considering that the data were collected during the lockdown imposed on Italian citizens to face the unprecedented emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the collected data may help to understand how people coped with the pandemic, both from a psychological and socioeconomic perspective. Finally, this dataset can be included in the broad context of data, procedures, and experimental materials that have been used to expand our knowledge in the study of time perspective, beliefs, and emotions.

Dataset Information

The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area.

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