Dataset Information

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19: A cross-country analysis.

ABSTRACT: Prolonging non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used in the control of pandemics can cause a devastating effect on the overall economic and social welfare levels. Therefore, policymakers are facing a difficult duty in terms of implementing economically and socially sustainable and acceptable measures. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of NPIs implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, eight NPI measures were analysed, and their effects on the number of cases were investigated for France, Spain, China, and South Korea. In the study, the treatment effect of these mechanisms on the daily increase rate of the total number of cases during a certain period was analysed by using logarithmic linear regression with a dummy variables model. The findings indicate that the measures are effective against the spread of the pandemic at different levels. The findings also suggest that the most effective measure in decreasing the number of cases is workplace closure. An analysis comparing the effectiveness of countrywide measures and regional measures shows that school closing is the most effective measure to decrease the number of cases when implemented countrywide as opposed to regional implementation.

SUBMITTER: Gokmen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8251211 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19: A cross-country analysis.

Gokmen Yunus Y Baskici Cigdem C Ercil Yavuz Y

The International journal of health planning and management 20210405 4

Prolonging non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used in the control of pandemics can cause a devastating effect on the overall economic and social welfare levels. Therefore, policymakers are facing a difficult duty in terms of implementing economically and socially sustainable and acceptable measures. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of NPIs implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, eight NPI measures were analysed, and their effects on the number of ...[more]

PMID: 33819370

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Project description:Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Interventions (NPHIs) have been used by different countries to control the spread of the COVID-19. Despite available evidence regarding the effectiveness of NPHSs, there is still no consensus about how policymakers can trust these results. Studies on the effectiveness of NPHSs are single studies conducted in specific communities. Therefore, they cannot individually prove if these interventions have been effective in reducing the spread of the infection and its adverse health outcomes. In this systematic review, we aimed to examine the effects of NPHIs on the COVID-19 case growth rate, death growth rate, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and reproduction number in countries, where NPHIs have been implemented. We searched relevant electronic databases, including Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, etc. from late December 2019 to February 1, 2021. The key terms were primarily drawn from Medical Subject Heading (MeSh and Emtree), literature review, and opinions of experts. Peer-reviewed quasi-experimental studies were included in the review. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42020186855. Interventions were NPHIs categorized as lockdown, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and other interventions (mask-wearing, contact tracing, and school closure). We used PRISMA 2020 guidance for abstracting the data and used Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Practice (EPOC) Risk of Bias Tool for quality appraisal of the studies. Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random-effects model was performed. Main outcomes included COVID-19 case growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 mortality growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 ICU admission (percentage daily changes), and COVID-19 reproduction number changes. Our search strategies in major databases yielded 12,523 results, which decreased to 7,540 articles after eliminating duplicates. Finally, 35 articles qualified to be included in the systematic review among which 23 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Although studies were from both low-income and high-income countries, the majority of them were from the United States (13 studies) and China (five studies). Results of the meta-analysis showed that adoption of NPHIs has resulted in a 4.68% (95% CI, -6.94 to -2.78) decrease in daily case growth rates, 4.8% (95 CI, -8.34 to -1.40) decrease in daily death growth rates, 1.90 (95% CI, -2.23 to -1.58) decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number, and 16.5% (95% CI, -19.68 to -13.32) decrease in COVID-19 daily ICU admission. A few studies showed that, early enforcement of lockdown, when the incidence rate is not high, contributed to a shorter duration of lockdown and a lower increase of the case growth rate in the post-lockdown era. The majority of NPHIs had positive effects on restraining the COVID-19 spread. With the problems that remain regarding universal access to vaccines and their effectiveness and considering the drastic impact of the nationwide lockdown and other harsh restrictions on the economy and people's life, such interventions should be mitigated by adopting other NPHIs such as mass mask-wearing, patient/suspected case isolation strategies, and contact tracing. Studies need to address the impact of NPHIs on the population's other health problems than COVID-19.

Project description:Background and objectiveThe outbreak of the current pandemic begun from the first individual of a 55-year old from Hubei province in China, the disease instigated by the new coronavirus spreading across the world. Scientists presently speculate this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, originated in a bat and by one way or another jumped to another creature, potentially the pangolin, which at that point gave it to people. The ailment is currently spreading between individuals with no animal delegate. Researchers are struggling to follow the infection back to where it started to become familiar with its spread. In the event that, for example, specialists can locate the soonest cases, they might have the option to distinguish the creature have where the infection hides. In March and April 2020, researchers detailed that this virus created normally. Coronavirus has been become of the serious global phenomena in the recent years and has negative effects in the entire world health and economy. The virus is believed to have been associated with a host animal which human contracted. Subsequently, human-to-human infection began. Through migration as humans have become complex with easy mobility the disease has traveled to the entire continent. Now, numerous scientist are going on in the hope of obtaining medication and vaccination to prevent the spread of the disease and mortality of the disease. It is important that we obtain quantitative and qualitative information about the etiology of this disease which is crucial. Mathematical modeling is capable of providing qualitative information on many parameters that guides the decision making of health practitioners. In this work we focus the optimal control of COVID-19 with the help of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). To find the role of factors/parameters in the transmission of the syndrome we find R0; the ratio of reproduction for the proposed model.MethodsTo find the role of parameters in the transmission of the syndrome we find R0; the ratio of reproduction for the proposed model. On the basis of sensitivity indices of the parameters we apply Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) to control the sensitive parameters and hence formulate the optimal control mode. With the help of Hamiltonian and Lagrangian we minimize the density of contaminated stuff and infected human population.ResultsWe focus the optimal control of COVID-19 with the help of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs). On the basis of sensitivity indices of the parameters we apply Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) to control the sensitive parameters and hence formulate the optimal control model. The major NPIs are, STAY HOME, SANITIZER (wash hands), EARLY CASE DETECTION (PCR Test) and FACE MASK. These NPIs helps in mitigation and reducing the size of outbreak of the disease.ConclusionWe check the existence of the optimal solution for the system. At the end, Using matlab we produce numerical simulations for validation of results of control variables. The results demonstrate that if there is no control (variables/interventios), 900 out 1000 susceptible individuals may be infected (exposed) in very short period. As such a circumstances no agency fighting against COVID-19 could be successful due to its limited resources.

Project description:ObjectivesThe resurgence in cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in many countries suggests complacency in adhering to COVID-19 preventive guidelines. Vaccination, therefore, remains a key intervention in mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated the level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccine among Ugandans.Design, setting and participantsA nationwide cross-sectional survey of 1053 Ugandan adults was conducted in March 2021 using telephone interviews.Main outcome measuresParticipants reported on adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and intention to be vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines.ResultsOverall, 10.2% of the respondents adhered to the COVID-19 preventive guidelines and 57.8% stated definite intention to receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Compared with women, men were less likely to adhere to COVID-19 guidelines (Odds Ratio (OR)=0.64, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.99). Participants from the northern (4.0%, OR=0.28, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.92), western (5.1%, OR=0.30, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.65) and eastern regions (6.5%, OR=0.47, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.92), respectively, had lower odds of adhering to the COVID-19 guidelines than those from the central region (14.7%). A higher monthly income of ≥US$137 (OR=2.31, 95% CI 1.14 to 4.58) and a history of chronic disease (OR=1.81, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.86) were predictors of adherence. Concerns about the chances of getting COVID-19 in the future (Prevalence Ratio (PR)=1.26, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.48) and fear of severe COVID-19 infection (PR=1.20, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) were the strongest predictors for a definite intention, while concerns for side effects were negatively associated with vaccination intent (PR=0.75, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.83).ConclusionBehaviour change programmes need to be strengthened to promote adherence to COVID-19 preventive guidelines as vaccination is rolled out as another preventive measure. Dissemination of accurate, safe and efficacious information about the vaccines is necessary to enhance vaccine uptake.

Dataset Information

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19: A cross-country analysis.

Publications

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19: A cross-country analysis.

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