Trends in 30-day mortality from COVID-19 among older adults in the Veterans Affairs system.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Seligman B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8251413 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Trends in 30-day mortality from COVID-19 among older adults in the Veterans Affairs system.
Seligman Benjamin B Charest Brian B Gagnon David R DR Orkaby Ariela R AR
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 20210326 6
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Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 and influenza are important sources of morbidity and mortality among older adults. Understanding how outcomes differ for older adults hospitalized with either infection is important for improving care. We compared outcomes from infection with COVID-19 and influenza among hospitalized older adults.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of 30-day mortality among veterans aged 65+ hospitalized with COVID-19 from March 1, 2020-December 31, 2020 or with influenza A/B from September 1, 2017 to August 31, 2019 in Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VAHCS). COVID-19 infection was determined by a positive PCR test and influenza by tests used in the VA system. Frailty was defined by the claims-based Veterans Affairs Frailty Index (VA-FI). Logistic regressions of mortality on frailty, age, and infection were adjusted for multiple confounders.ResultsA total of 15,474 veterans were admitted with COVID-19 and 7867 with influenza. Mean (SD) ages were 76.1 (7.8) and 75.8 (8.3) years, 97.7% and 97.4% were male, and 66.9% and 76.4% were white in the COVID-19 and influenza cohorts respectively. Crude 30-day mortality (95% CI) was 18.9% (18.3%-19.5%) for COVID-19 and 4.3% (3.8%-4.7%) for influenza. Combining cohorts, the odds ratio for 30-day mortality from COVID-19 (versus influenza) was 6.61 (5.74-7.65). There was a statistically significant interaction between infection with COVID-19 and frailty, but there was no significant interaction between COVID-19 and age. Separating cohorts, greater 30-day mortality was significantly associated with older age (p: COVID-19: <0.001, Influenza: <0.001) and for frail compared with robust individuals (p for trend: COVID-19: <0.001, Influenza: <0.001).ConclusionMortality from COVID-19 exceeded that from influenza among hospitalized older adults. However, odds of mortality were higher at every level of frailty among those admitted with influenza compared to COVID-19. Prevention will remain key to reducing mortality from viral illnesses among older adults.
| S-EPMC9115089 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hospital readmission is a key metric of hospital quality, such as for comparing Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals to private sector hospitals. To calculate readmission rates, one must first identify individual hospitalizations. However, in the VA Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW), data are organized by "bedded stays," that is, any stay in a healthcare facility where a patient is provided a bed, not hospitalizations. Thus, CDW data poses several challenges to identifying hospitalizations including: (1) bedded stays include both non-acute inpatient stays (i.e. nursing home, mental health) and acute inpatient hospital care; (2) transfers between VA facilities appear as separate bedded stays; and (3) VA care may also be fragmented by non-VA care. Thus, we sought to develop a rigorous method to identify acute hospitalizations using the VA CDW. We examined all VA bedded stays with an admission date in 2009. Non-acute portions of a stay were dropped. VA to VA transfers were merged when consecutive discharge and admission dates were within one calendar day. Finally, hospitalizations that occurred in a non-VA facility were merged. The 30-day readmission rate was calculated at each step of the algorithm to demonstrate the impact. The total number of VA medical hospitalizations in 2009 with live discharges was 505,861. The 30-day readmission rate after adjusting for VA to VA transfers and incorporating non-VA care was 18.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 18.2, 18.4%).
| S-EPMC9518959 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe US Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system began reporting risk-adjusted mortality for intensive care (ICU) admissions in 2005. However, while the VA's mortality model has been updated and adapted for risk-adjustment of all inpatient hospitalizations, recent model performance has not been published. We sought to assess the current performance of VA's 4 standardized mortality models: acute care 30-day mortality (acute care SMR-30); ICU 30-day mortality (ICU SMR-30); acute care in-hospital mortality (acute care SMR); and ICU in-hospital mortality (ICU SMR).MethodsRetrospective cohort study with split derivation and validation samples. Standardized mortality models were fit using derivation data, with coefficients applied to the validation sample. Nationwide VA hospitalizations that met model inclusion criteria during fiscal years 2017-2018(derivation) and 2019 (validation) were included. Model performance was evaluated using c-statistics to assess discrimination and comparison of observed versus predicted deaths to assess calibration.ResultsAmong 1,143,351 hospitalizations eligible for the acute care SMR-30 during 2017-2019, in-hospital mortality was 1.8%, and 30-day mortality was 4.3%. C-statistics for the SMR models in validation data were 0.870 (acute care SMR-30); 0.864 (ICU SMR-30); 0.914 (acute care SMR); and 0.887 (ICU SMR). There were 16,036 deaths (4.29% mortality) in the SMR-30 validation cohort versus 17,458 predicted deaths (4.67%), reflecting 0.38% over-prediction. Across deciles of predicted risk, the absolute difference in observed versus predicted percent mortality was a mean of 0.38%, with a maximum error of 1.81% seen in the highest-risk decile.Conclusions and relevanceThe VA's SMR models, which incorporate patient physiology on presentation, are highly predictive and demonstrate good calibration both overall and across risk deciles. The current SMR models perform similarly to the initial ICU SMR model, indicating appropriate adaption and re-calibration.
| S-EPMC9640507 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA reduction in mortality risk of COVID-19 throughout the first wave of the pandemic has been reported, but less is known about later waves. This study aimed to describe changes in hospitalizations and mortality of patients receiving inpatient geriatric care for COVID-19 or other causes during the pandemic.MethodsPatients 70 years and older hospitalized in geriatric hospitals in Stockholm for COVID-19 or other causes between March 2020-July 2021 were included. Data on the incidence of COVID-positive cases and 30-day mortality of the total ≥ 70-year-old population, in relation to weekly hospitalizations and mortality after hospital admissions were analyzed. Findings The total number of hospitalizations was 5,320 for COVID-19 and 32,243 for non-COVID-cases. In COVID-patients, the 30-day mortality rate was highest at the beginning of the first wave (29% in March-April 2020), reached 17% at the second wave peak (November-December) followed by 11-13% in the third wave (March-July 2021). The mortality in non-COVID geriatric patients showed a similar trend, but of lower magnitude (5-10%). During the incidence peaks, COVID-19 hospitalizations displaced non-COVID geriatric patients.InterpretationHospital admissions and 30-day mortality after hospitalizations for COVID-19 increased in periods of high community transmission, albeit with decreasing mortality rates from wave 1 to 3, with a probable vaccination effect in wave 3. Thus, the healthcare system could not compensate for the high community spread of COVID-19 during the pandemic peaks, which also led to displacing care for non-COVID geriatric patients.
| S-EPMC10501674 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsSeveral studies have shown conflicting results for the relationship between vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 outcomes. Here, we aimed to evaluate whether plasma 25(OH)D levels predict mortality in adults admitted with COVID-19, considering potential confounders.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study that included 115 adults (age 62.1 ± 17.6 years, 65 males) admitted to a Brazilian public hospital for severely symptomatic COVID-19. Subjects were classified into two groups according to their plasma levels of 25(OH)D: sufficiency (≥50 nmol/L) and the deficiency (<50 nmol/L). The diagnosis of COVID-19 was performed using real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). In addition, direct competitive chemiluminescence immunoassay assessed serum 25(OH)D levels.ResultsThe all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.8% (95% CI: 6.5%-21%) in the group of patients with sufficient plasma 25(OH)D levels and 32.1% (95% CI: 14.8%-49.4%) among those with deficient plasma 25(OH)D levels. Cox regression showed that plasma 25(OH)D levels remained a significant predictor of mortality even after adjusting for the covariates sex, age, length of the delay between symptom onset and hospitalization, and disease severity (HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96-1.00; p = 0.02).ConclusionVitamin D deficiency predicts higher mortality risk in adults with COVID-19.
| S-EPMC9195455 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe association between frailty and short-term prognosis has not been established in critically ill older adults presenting to the emergency department. We sought to examine the association between premorbid frailty and 30-day mortality in this patient population.MethodsThis is a retrospective observational study on older adults aged over 75 who were triaged as Level 1 resuscitation with subsequent admissions to intermediate units or intensive care units (ICUs) in a single critical care center, from January to December 2019. We excluded patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or those transferred from other hospitals. Frailty was evaluated by the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) from the patients' chart reviews. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, and we examined the association between frailty scored on the CFS and 30-day mortality using a multivariable logistic regression model with CFS 1-4 as a reference.ResultsA total of 544 patients, median age: 82 years (interquartile rang 78 to 87), were included in the study. Of these, 29% were in shock and 33% were in respiratory failure. The overall 30-day mortality was 15.1%. The adjusted risk difference (95% confidence interval [CI]) in mortality for CFS 5, CFS 6, and CFS 7-9 was 6.3% (-3.4 to 15.9), 11.2% (0.4 to 22.0), and 17.7% (5.3 to 30.1), respectively; and the adjusted risk ratio (95% CI) was 1.45 (0.87 to 2.41), 1.85 (1.13 to 3.03), and 2.44 (1.50 to 3.96), respectively.ConclusionThe risk of 30-day mortality increased as frailty advanced in critically ill older adults. Given this high risk of short-term outcomes, ED clinicians should consider goals of care conversations carefully to avoid unwanted medical care for these patients.
| S-EPMC8847731 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportancePostcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) refers to colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosed after a colonoscopy in which no cancer was found and is reflective of colonoscopy quality at the individual and system levels. Colonoscopy is widely performed in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system, but the prevalence of PCCRC and its associated mortality are unknown.ObjectiveTo examine PCCRC prevalence and its all-cause mortality (ACM) and CRC-specific mortality (CSM) within the VA health care system.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used VA-Medicare administrative data to identify 29 877 veterans aged 50 to 85 years with newly diagnosed CRC between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2013. Patients whose colonoscopy occurred less than 6 months before CRC diagnosis with no other colonoscopy within the previous 36 months were categorized as having detected CRC (DCRC). Those who had a colonoscopy that did not detect CRC between 6 and 36 months before CRC diagnosis were categorized as having postcolonoscopy CRC (PCCRC-3y). A third group included patients with CRC and no colonoscopy within the prior 36 months. The final analysis of the data was performed in September 2022.ExposuresPrior receipt of colonoscopy.Main outcomes and measuresCox proportional hazards regression (with censoring, last follow-up December 31, 2018) analyses were conducted to compare PCCRC-3y and DCRC for 5-year ACM and CSM after CRC diagnosis.ResultsOf 29 877 patients with CRC (median [IQR] age, 67 [60-75] years; 29 353 [98%] male; 5284 [18%] Black, 23 971 [80%] White, and 622 [2%] other), 1785 (6%) were classified as having PCCRC-3y and 21 811 (73%) as having DCRC. The 5-year ACM rates were 46% vs 42% for patients with PCCRC-3y vs patients with DCRC. The 5-year CSM rates were 26% vs 25% for patients with PCCRC-3y vs patients with DCRC. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, there was no significant difference in ACM and CSM between patients with PCCRC-3y (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.04; 95% CI, 0.98-1.11; P = .18) and patients with DCRC (aHR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.95-1.13; P = .42). However, compared with patients with DCRC, patients with no prior colonoscopy had significantly higher ACM (aHR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.70-1.82; P < .001) and CSM (aHR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.12-2.32; P < .001). Compared with patients with DCRC, patients with PCCRC-3y had significantly lower odds of having undergone colonoscopy performed by a gastroenterologist (odds ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.43-0.53; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that PCCRC-3y constituted 6% of CRCs in the VA system, which is similar to other settings. Compared with patients with CRC detected by colonoscopy, those with PCCRC-3y have comparable ACM and CSM.
| S-EPMC10080371 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the temporal trends of 30-day mortality and hospitalisation in US Veterans with COVID-19 and 30-day mortality in hospitalised veterans with COVID-19 and to decompose the contribution of changes in the underlying characteristics of affected populations to these temporal changes.DesignObservational cohort study.SettingUS Department of Veterans Affairs.Participants49 238 US veterans with a positive COVID-19 test between 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020; and 9428 US veterans hospitalised with a positive COVID-19 test during the same period.Outcome measures30-day mortality rate and hospitalisation rate.ResultsBetween 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020 and in COVID-19 positive individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 9.2% from 13.6% to 4.4%; hospitalisation rate dropped by 16.8% from 33.8% to 17.0%. In hospitalised COVID-19 individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 12.7% from 23.5% to 10.8%. Among COVID-19 positive individuals, decomposition analyses suggested that changes in demographic, health and contextual characteristics, COVID-19 testing capacity, and hospital occupancy rates accounted for 40.2% and 33.3% of the decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation, respectively. Changes in the underlying characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 individuals accounted for 29.9% of the decline in 30-day mortality.ConclusionBetween March and September 2020, changes in demographic and health characteristics of people infected with COVID-19 contributed measurably to the substantial decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation.
| S-EPMC8370839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Veterans Affairs Health Care System provide incentives for hospitals to reduce 30-day readmission and mortality rates. In contrast with the large body of evidence describing readmission and mortality in the Medicare system, it is unclear how heart failure readmission and mortality rates have changed during this period in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System.ObjectivesTo evaluate trends in readmission and mortality after heart failure admission in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System, which had no financial penalties, in a decade involving focus on heart failure readmission reduction (2007-2017).Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from all Veterans Affairs-paid heart failure admissions from January 2007 to September 2017. All Veterans Affairs-paid hospital admissions to Veterans Affairs and non-Veterans Affairs facilities for a primary diagnosis of heart failure were included, when the admission was paid for by the Veterans Affairs. Data analyses were conducted from October 2018 to March 2020.ExposuresAdmission for a primary diagnosis of heart failure at discharge.Main outcomes and measuresThirty-day all-cause readmission and mortality rates.ResultsA total of 164 566 patients with 304 374 hospital admissions were included. Among the 304 374 hospital admissions between 2007 and 2017, 298 260 (98.0%) were for male patients, and 195 205 (64.4%) were for white patients. The mean (SD) age was 70.8 (11.5) years. The adjusted odds ratio of 30-day readmission declined throughout the study period to 0.85 (95% CI, 0.83-0.88) in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2007 to 2008. The adjusted odds ratio of 30-day mortality remained stable, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.96-1.06) in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2007 to 2008. Stratification by left ventricular ejection fraction showed similar readmission reduction trends and no significant change in mortality, regardless of strata.Conclusions and relevanceIn this analysis of an integrated health care system that provided guidance and nonfinancial incentives for reducing readmissions, such as public reporting of readmission rates, risk-adjusted 30-day readmission declined despite inclusion of clinical variables in risk adjustment, but mortality did not decline. Future investigations should focus on evaluating the effectiveness of specific approaches to readmission reduction to inform efficient and effective application in individual health systems, hospitals, and practices.
| S-EPMC7301300 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesInfective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease associated with significant mortality. We studied recent temporal trends and age and sex differences in the occurrence and short-term mortality of IE.DesignPopulation based retrospective cohort study.SettingData of IE hospital admissions in patients aged ≥18 years in Finland during 2005-2014 and 30-day all-cause mortality data were retrospectively collected from mandatory nationwide registries from 38 hospitals.OutcomesTrends and age and sex differences in occurrence. Thirty-day mortality.ResultsThere were 2611 cases of IE during the study period (68.2% men, mean age 60 years). Female patients were significantly older than males (62.0 vs 59.0 years, p=0.0004). Total standardised annual incidence rate of IE admission was 6.33/100 000 person-years. Men had significantly higher risk of IE compared with women (9.5 vs 3.7/100 000; incidence rate ratios [IRR] 2.49; p<0.0001) and difference was most prominent at age 40-59 years (IRR 4.49; p<0.0001). Incidence rate varied from 5.7/100 000 in 2005 to 7.1/100 000 in 2012 with estimated average 2.1% increase per year (p=0.036) and similar trends in both sexes. Significant increasing trend was observed in patients aged 18-29 years and 30-39 years (estimated annual increase 7.6% and 7.2%, p=0.002) and borderline in patients aged 40-49 years (annual increase 3.8%, p=0.08). In older population, IE incidence rate remained stable. The overall 30-day mortality after IE admission was 11.3%. Mortality was similar between sexes, increased with ageing, and remained similar during the study period.ConclusionsOccurrence of IE is increasing in young adults in Finland. Men, especially middle-aged, are at higher risk for IE compared with women. Thirty-day mortality has remained stable at 11%, increased with ageing, and was similar between sexes.
| S-EPMC6500343 | biostudies-literature