Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?
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SUBMITTER: Wood SN
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8251436 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The closure of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic affected adolescents' social withdrawal and social anxiety. Yet, self-esteem may have acted as a protective factor during this period. This study aimed to compare the trajectories of social withdrawal and social anxiety before (Year 1), during (Year 2 and 3), and after (Year 4) the closure of schools imposed by the COVID-19-related lockdowns, and to investigate the association of self-esteem with these trajectories. Participants were 844 (50.6% boys) Portuguese adolescents (mean age 12.70 years, SD = 1.14). The Social and Emotional Competencies Evaluation Questionnaire (QACSE) was used to assess social withdrawal and social anxiety, while The Global Self-Esteem scale of the Self-Description Questionnaire II was used to measure self-esteem. Growth curve analysis showed that social withdrawal and social anxiety had more negative trajectories during the year in which the school closures occurred. In addition, adolescents reported higher social withdrawal after the lockdowns than before the pandemic. Higher self-esteem was associated with a more positive trajectory in social withdrawal. Therefore, the results showed the negative of impact of the closure of schools on adolescents' social anxiety and social withdrawal, and that self-esteem was a protective factor during these challenging and adverse events.
| S-EPMC10542336 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRestrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to increased screen-viewing among children, especially during strict periods of lockdown. However, the extent to which screen-viewing patterns in UK school children have changed post lockdowns is unclear. The aim of this paper is to examine how screen-viewing changed in 10-11-year-old children over the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic, how this compares to before the pandemic, and the influences on screen-viewing behaviour.MethodsThis is a mixed methods study with 10-11-year-olds from 50 schools in the Greater Bristol area, UK. Cross-sectional questionnaire data on minutes of weekday and weekend television (TV) viewing and total leisure screen-viewing were collected pre-COVID-19 in 2017-18 (N = 1,296) and again post-lockdowns in 2021 (N = 393). Data were modelled using Poisson mixed models, adjusted for age, gender, household education and seasonality, with interactions by gender and household education. Qualitative data were drawn from six focus groups (47 children) and 21 one-to-one parent interviews that explored screen-viewing behaviour during the pandemic and analysed using the framework method.ResultsTotal leisure screen-viewing was 11% (95% CI: 12%-18%) higher post-lockdown compared to pre-COVID-19 on weekdays, and 8% (95% CI: 6%-10%) on weekends, equating to around 12-15 min. TV-viewing (including streaming) was higher by 68% (95% CI: 63%-74%) on weekdays and 80% (95% CI: 75%-85%) on weekend days. Differences in both were higher for girls and children from households with lower educational attainment. Qualitative themes reflected an unavoidable increase in screen-based activities during lockdowns, the resulting habitualisation of screen-viewing post-lockdown, and the role of the parent in reducing post-2020/21 lockdown screen-viewing.ConclusionsAlthough screen-viewing was higher post-lockdown compared to pre-COVID-19, the high increases reported during lockdowns were not, on average, sustained post-lockdown. This may be attributed to a combination of short-term fluctuations during periods of strict restrictions, parental support in regulating post-lockdown behaviour and age-related, rather than COVID-19-specific, increases in screen-viewing. However, socio-economic differences in our sample suggest that not all families were able to break the COVID-19-related adoption of screen-viewing, and that some groups may need additional support in managing a healthy balance of screen-viewing and other activities following the lockdowns.
| S-EPMC9843116 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the "filtering" effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the "allegiance effect" in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process.
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Project description:Panmictic species pose particular problems for conservation because their welfare can be addressed effectively only on a global scale. We recently documented by means of microsatellite analysis that the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is not panmictic but instead shows genetic isolation by distance. In this study, we extended the analysis to the American eel (A. rostrata) by applying identical analytical procedures and statistical power. Results obtained for the American eel were in sharp contrast with those obtained for the European eel: the null hypothesis of panmixia could not be rejected, and no isolation by distance was detected. This implies that the species must be managed as a single population. Using Bayesian statistics, we also found that the effective population sizes for both species were surprisingly low and that the populations had undergone severe contractions, most probably during the Wisconsinan glaciation. The apparent sensitivity of eels to climatic changes affecting the strength and position of the Gulf Stream 20,000 years ago is particularly worrying, given the effects of the ongoing global warming on the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, additional short-term stresses such as surging glass eel prizes, overfishing and lethal parasitic infections negatively affect eel population size. The fascinating transatlantic migration and life cycle of Atlantic eels is also their Achilles' heel as these negative short- and long-term effects will probably culminate in a fatal synergy if drastic conservation measures are not implemented to protect these international biological resources.
| S-EPMC1691294 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundRestrictions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reduced physical activity provision for both children and their parents. Recent studies have reported decreases in physical activity levels during lockdown restrictions, but these were largely reliant on self-report methods, with data collected via unrepresentative self-report surveys. The post-pandemic impacts on children's activity levels remain unknown. A key question is how active children become once lockdown restrictions are lifted.MethodsActive-6 is a repeated cross-sectional natural experiment. Accelerometer data from 1296 children aged 10-11 and their parents were collected in 50 schools in the Greater Bristol area, UK in March 2017-May 2018 (pre-COVID-19 comparator group), and compared to 393 children aged 10-11 and parents in 23 of the same schools, collected in May-December 2021. Mean minutes of accelerometer-measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were derived for weekdays and weekend and compared pre- and post-lockdown via linear multilevel models.ResultsAfter adjusting for seasonality, accelerometer wear time and child/parent demographics, children's mean weekday and weekend MVPA were 7.7 min (95% CI: 3.5 to 11.9) and 6.9 min (95% CI: 0.9 to 12.9) lower in 2021 than in 2018, respectively, while sedentary time was higher by 25.4 min (95% CI: 15.8 to 35.0) and 14.0 min (95% CI: 1.5 to 26.5). There was no evidence that differences varied by child gender or household education. There was no significant difference in parents' MVPA or sedentary time, either on weekdays or weekends.ConclusionsChildren's MVPA was lower by 7-8 min/day in 2021 once restrictions were lifted than before the pandemic for all groups, on both weekdays and weekends. Previous research has shown that there is an undesirable age-related decline in children's physical activity. The 8-min difference reported here would be broadly comparable to the decline that would have previously been expected to occur over a three-year period. Parents' physical activity was similar to pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that despite easing of restrictions, children's activity levels have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. There is an urgent need to understand why these changes have occurred and how long they are maintained.
| S-EPMC9107948 | biostudies-literature
Project description:White matter hyperintensities proliferate as the brain ages and are associated with increased risk for cognitive decline as well as Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. As such, white matter hyperintensities have been targeted as a surrogate biomarker in intervention trials with older adults. However, it is unclear at what stage of aging white matter hyperintensities begin to relate to cognition and if they may be a viable target for early prevention. In the Dunedin Study, a population-representative cohort followed since birth, we measured white matter hyperintensities in 843 45-year-old participants using T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging and we assessed cognitive decline from childhood to midlife. We found that white matter hyperintensities were common at age 45 and that white matter hyperintensity volume was modestly associated with both lower childhood (ß = -0.08, P = 0.013) and adult IQ (ß=-0.15, P < 0.001). Moreover, white matter hyperintensity volume was associated with greater cognitive decline from childhood to midlife (ß=-0.09, P < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that a link between white matter hyperintensities and early signs of cognitive decline is detectable decades before clinical symptoms of dementia emerge. Thus, white matter hyperintensities may be a useful surrogate biomarker for identifying individuals in midlife at risk for future accelerated cognitive decline and selecting participants for dementia prevention trials.
| S-EPMC6928390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Increasing the weekly frequency of hemodialysis sessions has positive effects, on the control of several biological data of patients. However, knowledge about Daily HemoDialysis (DHD) practices is limited in France. The aim of the present study was to describe the characteristics and treatment trajectories of all French patients undergoing DHD.All patients older than 18 years who started DHD between 2003 and 2012 in France were included and followed until December 31, 2013. The patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and treatment modalities were extracted from the French Renal Epidemiological and Information Network (REIN) registry.During the inclusion period, 753 patients started DHD in France. Based on their median age (64 years), patients were classified in two groups: "old" group (?64 years) and "young" group (<64 years). Patients in the old group had more comorbidities than in the young group: 48 % had diabetes (vs 29 % in the young group), 17 % an active malignancy (vs 10 %) and 80 % ?1 cardiovascular disease (vs 41 %). Concerning patients' treatment trajectories, 496 (66 %) patients started with another dialysis before switching to DHD and 257 (34 %) directly with DHD. At the end of the follow-up, 69 % of patients in the old group were dead (27.4 % in the young group) and kidney transplantation was more frequent in the young group (30.4 % vs 0.5 %).In France, DHD is proposed not only to young in rather good clinical conditions and waiting for kidney transplantation, but also to old and frail patients with higher mortality.
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Project description:To describe trajectories of functional decline over 84 months and study associated risk factors among adults initially without limitation who had or were at risk of knee OA.We used annual measures of WOMAC physical function over 84 months from the OA Initiative. We included knees with no functional limitation (i.e. WOMAC = 0) at baseline. Knee-based trajectories of functional decline from WOMAC were identified from a group-based trajectory model (PROC TRAJ).We identified five trajectories from 2110 knees (1055 participants, age 61.0 ± 9.3, BMI 27.1 ± 4.4, 52% women). Half of the knees (54%) remained free of limitation over 84 months, 26% slowly declined to a WOMAC of 1.5, 9% were limitation free for the first 36 months and declined to a WOMAC of 11.3, 6% rapidly declined over the first 12 months and gradually recovered to a WOMAC of 3.3 and 5% steadily declined to a WOMAC of 13.2. Baseline radiographic disease, knee pain, obesity and depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with trajectories of worse functional decline.Five per cent of our sample initially without limitation was on a trajectory of progressive functional decline over 84 months later. We found worse disease and health status at baseline to be associated with faster decline over time.
| S-EPMC5009418 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectivesTo test associations between subclinical brain infarcts (SBIs) and functional decline independently of intervening clinical vascular events and other vascular risk factors.DesignLongitudinal follow-up for a mean 7.3 years. Generalized estimating equation models were used to test associations between SBIs, number of perivascular spaces (PVSs), baseline Barthel Index (BI), and change in BI, adjusting for sociodemographic, vascular, and cognitive risk factors and for stroke and myocardial infarction occurring during follow-up.SettingPopulation-based prospective cohort study.ParticipantsStroke-free individuals from the racially and ethnically diverse Northern Manhattan Study (N=1,290).MeasurementsAnnual functional assessments using the BI (range 0-100).ResultsMean age was 70.6 ± 9.0, 40% of participants were male, 66% were Hispanic, 193 (16%) had SBIs, and 508 (42%) had large PVSs. SBIs were not associated with baseline BI. In a fully adjusted model, there was a change in BI of -0.85 points per year (95% confidence interval (CI)=-1.01 to -0.69); those with SBI had an additional change in BI 0f -0.88 points (95% CI=-1.43 to -0.32). There were no associations between PVS and baseline BI or change in BI.ConclusionIn a large population-based study, we found a strong and independent association between "subclinical" markers of cerebrovascular injury and important clinical, person-centered functional trajectories. Future research could clarify the evolution of such subclinical markers over time and test strategies to prevent their progression and minimize related disability. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2144-2150, 2018.
| S-EPMC6235693 | biostudies-literature
Project description:High throughput field phenotyping techniques employing multispectral cameras allow extracting a variety of variables and features to predict yield and yield related traits, but little is known about which types of multispectral features are optimal to forecast yield potential in the early growth phase. In this study, we aim to identify multispectral features that are able to accurately predict yield and aid in variety classification at different growth stages throughout the season. Furthermore, we hypothesize that texture features (TFs) are more suitable for variety classification than for yield prediction. Throughout 2021 and 2022, a trial involving 19 and 18 European wheat varieties, respectively, was conducted. Multispectral images, encompassing visible, Red-edge, and near-infrared (NIR) bands, were captured at 19 and 22 time points from tillering to harvest using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the first and second year of trial. Subsequently, orthomosaic images were generated, and various features were extracted, including single-band reflectances, vegetation indices (VI), and TFs derived from a gray level correlation matrix (GLCM). The performance of these features in predicting yield and classifying varieties at different growth stages was assessed using random forest models. Measurements during the flowering stage demonstrated superior performance for most features. Specifically, Red reflectance achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 52.4 g m-2 in the first year and 64.4 g m-2 in the second year. The NDRE VI yielded the most accurate predictions with an RMSE of 49.1 g m-2 and 60.6 g m-2, respectively. Moreover, TFs such as CONTRAST and DISSIMILARITY displayed the best performance in predicting yield, with RMSE values of 55.5 g m-2 and 66.3 g m-2 across the two years of trial. Combining data from different dates enhanced yield prediction and stabilized predictions across dates. TFs exhibited high accuracy in classifying low and high-yielding varieties. The CORRELATION feature achieved an accuracy of 88% in the first year, while the HOMOGENEITY feature reached 92% accuracy in the second year. This study confirms the hypothesis that TFs are more suitable for variety classification than for yield prediction. The results underscore the potential of TFs derived from multispectral images in early yield prediction and varietal classification, offering insights for HTP and precision agriculture alike.
| S-EPMC10791776 | biostudies-literature