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Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens.

ABSTRACT: Understanding human disease, zoonoses and emergence is a global priority. A deep understanding of pathogen ecology and the complex inherent relationships at the agent-environment interface are essential to inform disease control and mitigation and to predict the next zoonotic pandemic. Here, we present the first analysis of social and environmental factors associated with human, zoonotic and emerging pathogen diversity at a global scale, controlling for research effort. Predictor-response associations were captured by generalized additive models. We used national level data to aid in policy development to inform control and mitigation. We show that human population density, land area, temperature and the human development index at the country level are associated with human, emerging and zoonotic pathogen diversity. Multiple models demonstrating society-agent-environment interactions demonstrate that social, environmental and geographical factors predict global pathogen diversity. The analyses demonstrate that weather variables (temperature and rainfall) have the potential to influence pathogen diversity.

SUBMITTER: Singh BB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8251457 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens.

Singh Balbir B BB Ward Michael P MP Dhand Navneet K NK

Transboundary and emerging diseases 20210323 3

Understanding human disease, zoonoses and emergence is a global priority. A deep understanding of pathogen ecology and the complex inherent relationships at the agent-environment interface are essential to inform disease control and mitigation and to predict the next zoonotic pandemic. Here, we present the first analysis of social and environmental factors associated with human, zoonotic and emerging pathogen diversity at a global scale, controlling for research effort. Predictor-response associ ...[more]

PMID: 33724682

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Project description:BackgroundDespite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose a concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective responses to these pathogens in the event that they undergo future emergence, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is advancing the development of vaccines for several pathogens prioritized by the World Health Organization. A major challenge in this pursuit is anticipating demand for a vaccine stockpile to support outbreak response.MethodsWe developed a modeling framework for outbreak response for emerging zoonoses under three reactive vaccination strategies to assess sustainable vaccine manufacturing needs, vaccine stockpile requirements, and the potential impact of the outbreak response. This framework incorporates geographically variable zoonotic spillover rates, human-to-human transmission, and the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns in response to disease outbreaks. As proof of concept, we applied the framework to four priority pathogens: Lassa virus, Nipah virus, MERS coronavirus, and Rift Valley virus.ResultsAnnual vaccine regimen requirements for a population-wide strategy ranged from > 670,000 (95% prediction interval 0-3,630,000) regimens for Lassa virus to 1,190,000 (95% PrI 0-8,480,000) regimens for Rift Valley fever virus, while the regimens required for ring vaccination or targeting healthcare workers (HCWs) were several orders of magnitude lower (between 1/25 and 1/700) than those required by a population-wide strategy. For each pathogen and vaccination strategy, reactive vaccination typically prevented fewer than 10% of cases, because of their presently low R0 values. Targeting HCWs had a higher per-regimen impact than population-wide vaccination.ConclusionsOur framework provides a flexible methodology for estimating vaccine stockpile needs and the geographic distribution of demand under a range of outbreak response scenarios. Uncertainties in our model estimates highlight several knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to target vulnerable populations more accurately. These include surveillance gaps that mask the true geographic distribution of each pathogen, details of key routes of spillover from animal reservoirs to humans, and the role of human-to-human transmission outside of healthcare settings. In addition, our estimates are based on the current epidemiology of each pathogen, but pathogen evolution could alter vaccine stockpile requirements.

Project description:Rodents are one of the most diversified terrestrial mammals, and they perform several beneficial activities in nature. These animals are also important as carriers of many pathogens with public health importance. The current systematic review was conducted to formulate a true depiction of rodent-related zoonoses in Qatar. Following systematic searches on PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Web of Science and a screening process, a total of 94 published articles were selected and studied. The studied articles reported 23 rodent-related zoonotic pathogens that include nine bacterial, eleven parasitic, and three viral pathogens, from which the frequently reported pathogens were Mycobacterium tuberculosis (32 reports), Escherichia coli (23), and Salmonella spp. (16). The possible pathway of entry of the rodent-borne pathogens can be the land port, seaports, and airport of Qatar through carrier humans and animals, contaminated food, and agricultural products. The pathogens can be conserved internally by rodents, pets, and livestock; by agricultural production systems; and by food marketing chains. The overall estimated pooled prevalence of the pathogens among the human population was 4.27% (95%CI: 4.03-4.51%; p < 0.001) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 99.50%). The top three highest prevalent pathogens were M.tuberculosis (30.90%; 22.75-39.04%; p < 0.001; I2 = 99.70%) followed by Toxoplasmagondii (21.93%; 6.23-37.61%; p < 0.001; I2 = 99.30%) and hepatitis E virus (18.29%; 11.72-24.86%; p < 0.001; I2 = 96.70%). However, there is a knowledge gap about the listed pathogens regarding the occurrence, transmission pathways, and rodent role in transmission dynamics at the human-animal-environment interface in Qatar. Further studies are required to explore the role of rodents in spreading zoonotic pathogens through the One Health framework, consisting of zoologists, ecologists, microbiologists, entomologists, veterinarians, and public health experts in this country.

Dataset Information

Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens.

Publications

Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens.

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