Different Trends in Excess Mortality in a Central European Country Compared to Main European Regions in the Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): a Hungarian Analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bogos K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8262208 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
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Project description:In 2020, there was a 20% increase in excess deaths in the USA due to COVID infections but also to changes in the healthcare system due to the pandemic. We hypothesized that people living with sickle cell disease (SCD) may be vulnerable to these changes as SCD can lead to rapid decompensation. We examined all deaths of people with SCD at our center in 2020. Cause of death was determined, clinical variables, and healthcare utilization, and the presence of COVID infection, sepsis, and acute organ failure during the death event was obtained from the electronic medical record. Deaths in 2020 were compared to deaths in 2017-2019. In 2020, deaths increase 244% (22 vs 9), but acute or previous COVID infections were identified in only 36% of 2020 deaths. People who died in 2020 were more likely to have developed acute organ failure during the death event (70.6% vs 21.1%, p = 0.003) compared to prior years. They were also more likely to have a history of stroke and more frequent hematology clinic visits. Deaths in 2020 doubled compared to prior years and COVID infection could not account for all of this excess mortality. People who died in 2020 may have had more severe disease as suggested by having more clinic visits and higher rates of stroke and were more likely to develop organ failure during the death event. This demonstrates that people with SCD may be especially vulnerable to delays in care. Larger multicenter studies should be conducted to examine this further.
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Project description:The Roma populations in Central and Eastern Europe are two to three times more likely to have unmet health needs compared to non-Roma residents. The aim of the present study was to investigate the disparity in screening attendance between Hungarian-speaking Roma (R) and non-Roma (nR) women in Hungary (HU-R:322; nR:294), Romania (RO-R:258; nR:183), and Slovakia (SK-R:146; nR:163), while also identifying the factors that influence attendance at any kind of screening tests in both populations. In order to examine these factors, a multiple binary logistic regression was conducted. The findings revealed significant associations between attendance at any kind of screening tests and certain factors among different groups. Among Hungarian Roma women, it was found that having a chronic disease and smoking were linked to attendance at any kind of screening tests (p = 0.009). Specifically, having a chronic disease increased the odds of attendance (OR = 1.71 [1.01, 2.90]), while smoking decreased the odds (OR = 0.57[0.365, 0.91]). In Romania, the study found that not having health insurance decreased the odds of attendance among Roma women (OR = 0.50 [0.27, 0.91]), whereas having a chronic disease increased the odds (OR = 2.87 [1.44, 5.72]) (p = 0.006). Among non-Roma women in Romania, physical inactivity was associated with a decreased likelihood of attendance at any kind of screening tests (OR = 0.48 [0.25, 0.95]). Among Slovakian Roma women, not having health insurance (OR = 0.09[0.02, 0.36]) and smoking (OR = 0.25[0.11, 0.61]) were found to decrease the odds of attendance (p < 0.001). On the other hand, non-Roma women in Slovakia with chronic diseases were more likely to attend at any kind of screening tests (OR = 2.52[1.12, 5.66]). Our research emphasizes the impact of lacking health insurance on screening attendance, particularly among the Roma population. It also highlights the significance of health-related behaviours such as smoking and physical inactivity in relation to missed screening tests, which in turn contribute to the development of non-communicable diseases. Therefore, promoting targeted screening programs for the Roma community is crucial to ensure their access to screening tests, especially in cases of chronic illnesses.
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Project description:BackgroundEQ-5D-3L population data are available only from Hungary, Poland and Slovenia in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We aimed to compare the accessible studies and estimate a regional EQ-5D-3L population norm for CEE.MethodsA combined dataset using patient-level data of 8850 respondents was created. Based on the European Census of 2011, regional population norm estimates were calibrated by gender, age and education for the joint citizenry of 11 CEE countries.ResultsEQ-5D-3L health states were available for 6926 and EQ VAS scores for 6569 respondents. Demographic characteristics of the samples reflected the recruitment methods (Hungary: online; Slovenia: postal survey, Poland: personal interviews). Occurrence of problems differed significantly by educational level in all the five dimensions (p?<?0.001). The inter-country differences persisted after controlling for demographic variables. The estimated EQ-5D-3L index CEE norms with UK tariffs for age groups 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and 75?+?were 0.911, 0.912, 0.871, 0.817, 0.762, 0.743 and 0.636 for males and 0.908, 0.888, 0.867, 0.788, 0.752, 0.68 and 0.584 for females, respectively. Estimates were provided also using Polish, European and Slovenian value sets.ConclusionsBesides gender and age, education should be considered during the design and interpretation of quality-of-life studies in CEE. The estimated regional EQ-5D-3L population norm may be used as a benchmark by CEE countries with lack of local dataset. However, the substantial inter-country differences in health status and scarcity of data over age 65 call for harmonized country-specific EQ-5D-3L population norm studies in the CEE region.
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Project description:European H1N2 swine influenza viruses (EU H1N2SIVs) arose from multiple reassortment events among human H1N1, human H3N2, and avian influenza viruses. We investigated the evolutionary dynamics of 53 Italian H1N2 strains by comparing them with EU H1N2 SIVs. Hemagglutinin (HA) phylogeny revealed Italian strains fell into four groups: Group A and B (41 strains) had a human H1 similar to EU H1N2SIVs, which probably originated in 1986. However Group B (38 strains) formed a subgroup that had a two-amino acid deletion at positions 146/147 in HA. Group C (11 strains) contained an avian H1 that probably originated in 1996, and Group D (1 strain) had an H1 characteristic of the 2009 pandemic strain. Neuraminidase (NA) phylogeny suggested a series of genomic reassortments had occurred. Group A had an N2 that originated from human H3N2 in the late 1970s. Group B had different human N2 that most likely arose from a reassortment with the more recent human H3N2 virus, which probably occurred in 2000. Group C had an avian-like H1 combined with an N2 gene from one of EU H1N2SIVs, EU H3N2SIVs or Human H3N2. Group D was part of the EU H3N2SIVs clade. Although selection pressure for HA and NA was low, several positively selected sites were identified in both proteins, some of which were antigenic, suggesting selection influenced the evolution of SIV. The data highlight different evolutionary trends between European viruses and currently circulating Italian B strains and show the establishment of reassortant strains involving human viruses in Italian pigs.
| S-EPMC4176092 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe death toll after SARS-CoV-2 emergence includes deaths directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19. Mexico reported 325,415 excess deaths, 34.4% of them not directly related to COVID-19 in 2020. In this work, we aimed to analyse temporal changes in the distribution of the leading causes of mortality produced by COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico to understand excess mortality not directly related to the virus infection.MethodsWe did a longitudinal retrospective study of the leading causes of mortality and their variation with respect to cause-specific expected deaths in Mexico from January 2020 through December 2021 using death certificate information. We fitted a Poisson regression model to predict cause-specific mortality during the pandemic period, based on the 2015-2019 registered mortality. We estimated excess deaths as a weekly difference between expected and observed deaths and added up for the entire period. We expressed all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality as a percentage change with respect to predicted deaths by our model.FindingsCOVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2020-2021 (439,582 deaths). All-cause total excess mortality was 600,590 deaths (38⋅2% [95% CI: 36·0 to 40·4] over expected). The largest increases in cause-specific mortality, occurred in diabetes (36·8% over expected), respiratory infections (33·3%), ischaemic heart diseases (32·5%) and hypertensive diseases (25·0%). The cause-groups that experienced significant decreases with respect to the expected pre-pandemic mortality were infectious and parasitic diseases (-20·8%), skin diseases (-17·5%), non-traffic related accidents (-16·7%) and malignant neoplasm (-5·3%).InterpretationMortality from COVID-19 became the first cause of death in 2020-2021, the increase in other causes of death may be explained by changes in the health service utilization patterns caused by hospital conversion or fear of the population using them. Cause-misclassification cannot be ruled out.FundingThis study was funded by Conacyt.
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Project description:ImportanceIn early 2020, the United States declared a public health emergency in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and implemented a variety of social distancing measures. The association between the COVID-19 pandemic and the number of pediatric admissions is unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the changes in patterns of pediatric admissions in 2020 compared with the prior decade.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study included 49 US hospitals contributing to the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Inpatient admissions were transformed into time-series data, and ensemble forecasting models were generated to analyze admissions across a range of diagnoses in 2020 compared with previous years. The setting was inpatient admissions. All patients discharged between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2020, from an inpatient hospital encounter were included.Main outcomes and measuresNumber of hospital admissions by primary diagnosis for each encounter.ResultsOf 5 424 688 inpatient encounters among 3 372 839 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 5.1 [0.7-13.3] years; 2 823 748 [52.1%] boys; 3 171 224 [58.5%] White individuals) at 49 hospitals, 213 571 (3.9%) were between January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020. There was a decrease in the number of admissions beginning in March 2020 compared with the period from 2010 to 2019. At the nadir, admissions in April 2020 were reduced 45.4% compared with prior years (23 798 in April 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of 43 550 [42 110-43 946] in April 2010-2019). Inflation-adjusted hospital charges decreased 27.7% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with prior years ($4 327 580 511 in 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of $5 983 142 102 [$5 762 690 022-$6 324 978 456] in 2010-2019). Seasonal patterns were evident between 2010 and 2019 for a variety of common pediatric conditions, including asthma, atrial septal defects, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, Kawasaki syndrome, mental health admissions, and trauma. Ensemble models were able to discern seasonal patterns in admission diagnoses and accurately predicted admission rates from July 2019 until December 2019 but not from January 2020 to June 2020. All diagnoses except for birth decreased below the model 95% CIs between January 2020 and June 2020.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, pediatric admissions to US hospitals decreased in 2020 across an array of pediatric conditions. Although some conditions may have decreased in incidence, others may represent unmet needs in pediatric care during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7881361 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:HIV cohort data from high-income European countries were compared with the UNAIDS Spectrum modelling parameters for these same countries to validate mortality rates and excess mortality estimates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS:Data from 2000 to 2015 were analysed from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) for Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland. Flexible parametric models were used to compare all-cause mortality rates in the ART-CC and Spectrum. The percentage of AIDS-related deaths and excess mortality (both are the same within Spectrum) were compared, with excess mortality defined as that in excess of the general population mortality. RESULTS:Analyses included 94?026 PLHIV with 585?784 person-years of follow-up, from which there were 5515 deaths. All-cause annual mortality rates in Spectrum for 2000-2003 were 0.0121, reducing to 0.0078 in 2012-2015, whilst the ART-CC's corresponding annual mortality rates were 0.0151 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.0130-0.0171] reducing to 0.0049 (95% CI: 0.0039-0.0060). The percentage of AIDS-related deaths in Spectrum was 74.7% in 2000-2003, dropping to 43.6% in 2012-2015. In the ART-CC, AIDS-related mortality constitutes 45.3% (95% CI: 38.4-52.9%) of mortality in 2000-2003 and 26.7% (95% CI: 19-46%) between 2012 and 2015. Excess mortality in the ART-CC was broadly similar to the Spectrum estimates, dropping from 75.3% (95% CI: 60.3-95.2%) in 2000-2003 to 30.7% (95% CI: 25.5-63.7%) in 2012-2015. CONCLUSION:All-cause mortality assumptions for PLHIV on ART in high-income European settings should be adjusted in Spectrum to be higher in 2000-2003 and decline more quickly to levels currently captured for recent years.
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Project description:Italy is particularly affected by SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Recently, Colombo and Impicciatore compared the deaths in 1084 selected municipalities between 21 February 2020 and 21 March 2020 with deaths in the same time period in 2015 to 2019. We extend analyses of data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and calculate SMRs for all causes of death in the nine selected regions of Italy, separately for men and women and summarized. We analyze the effect of covariables by Poisson modelling and discuss the limitations of the current elaborations. We conclude: In agreement with Colombo and Impicciatore, in the particular corona situation, this "mortality excess loupe" - assuming otherwise constant determinants of death - can be a virus-test-independent tool to determine mortality effects of SARS-CoV-2. The current "loupe" is focused on municipalities with increases of more than 20% deaths in March 2020 compared to the average deaths on the same days in 2015-2019. The time window of investigation could be opened before 21 February 2020 to detect masked increases in mortality before the first "COVID-19 death" was ascertained. The current "loupe" conveys pronounced mortality increases also in regions that were not considered to be corona hotspots. In this respect, even in the absence of representative virus test results, mortality data can be important indicators of the distribution or spread of a newly acting factor. Overall, it is advisable to carry out SMR analyses for Germany on a regular basis, differentiated by region, gender, age group and cause of death. Such analyses can contribute to the early detection and evaluation of the severity of a deadly pandemic ("burden of disease") as well as to monitoring the dynamic spread of a factor such as SARS-CoV-2. SMR analyses can also be used to assess and evaluate both desired and undesired effects of measures taken against SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 - and possibly other epidemics or pandemics.
| S-EPMC7295299 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCauses of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020-2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022.MethodsWe performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010-2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010-2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data.ResultsThere was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3.7% and 14.5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14.3% and 22.0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3.5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2.9% and 13.7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16.0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2.3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83.8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79.6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4.0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44.3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18.5)).ConclusionsThere was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted.
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