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Different Trends in Excess Mortality in a Central European Country Compared to Main European Regions in the Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): a Hungarian Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Objective: This study examined cumulative excess mortality in European countries in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and characterized the dynamics of the pandemic in different countries, focusing on Hungary and the Central and Eastern European region. Methods: Age-standardized cumulative excess mortality was calculated based on weekly mortality data from the EUROSTAT database, and was compared between 2020 and the 2016-2019 reference period in European countries. Results: Cumulate weekly excess mortality in Hungary was in the negative range until week 44. By week 52, it reached 9,998 excess deaths, corresponding to 7.73% cumulative excess mortality vs. 2016-2019 (p-value = 0.030 vs. 2016-2019). In Q1, only Spain and Italy reported excess mortality compared to the reference period. Significant increases in excess mortality were detected between weeks 13 and 26 in Spain, United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherland and Sweden. Romania and Portugal showed the largest increases in age-standardized cumulative excess mortality in the Q3. The majority of Central and Eastern European countries experienced an outstandingly high impact of the pandemic in Q4 in terms of excess deaths. Hungary ranked 11th in cumulative excess mortality based on the latest available data of from the EUROSTAT database. Conclusion: Hungary experienced a mortality deficit in the first half of 2020 compared to previous years, which was followed by an increase in mortality during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 7.7% cumulative excess mortality by the end of 2020. The excess was lower than in neighboring countries with similar dynamics of the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Bogos K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8262208 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Roma populations in Central and Eastern Europe are two to three times more likely to have unmet health needs compared to non-Roma residents. The aim of the present study was to investigate the disparity in screening attendance between Hungarian-speaking Roma (R) and non-Roma (nR) women in Hungary (HU-R:322; nR:294), Romania (RO-R:258; nR:183), and Slovakia (SK-R:146; nR:163), while also identifying the factors that influence attendance at any kind of screening tests in both populations. In order to examine these factors, a multiple binary logistic regression was conducted. The findings revealed significant associations between attendance at any kind of screening tests and certain factors among different groups. Among Hungarian Roma women, it was found that having a chronic disease and smoking were linked to attendance at any kind of screening tests (p = 0.009). Specifically, having a chronic disease increased the odds of attendance (OR = 1.71 [1.01, 2.90]), while smoking decreased the odds (OR = 0.57[0.365, 0.91]). In Romania, the study found that not having health insurance decreased the odds of attendance among Roma women (OR = 0.50 [0.27, 0.91]), whereas having a chronic disease increased the odds (OR = 2.87 [1.44, 5.72]) (p = 0.006). Among non-Roma women in Romania, physical inactivity was associated with a decreased likelihood of attendance at any kind of screening tests (OR = 0.48 [0.25, 0.95]). Among Slovakian Roma women, not having health insurance (OR = 0.09[0.02, 0.36]) and smoking (OR = 0.25[0.11, 0.61]) were found to decrease the odds of attendance (p < 0.001). On the other hand, non-Roma women in Slovakia with chronic diseases were more likely to attend at any kind of screening tests (OR = 2.52[1.12, 5.66]). Our research emphasizes the impact of lacking health insurance on screening attendance, particularly among the Roma population. It also highlights the significance of health-related behaviours such as smoking and physical inactivity in relation to missed screening tests, which in turn contribute to the development of non-communicable diseases. Therefore, promoting targeted screening programs for the Roma community is crucial to ensure their access to screening tests, especially in cases of chronic illnesses.

Project description:BackgroundThe death toll after SARS-CoV-2 emergence includes deaths directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19. Mexico reported 325,415 excess deaths, 34.4% of them not directly related to COVID-19 in 2020. In this work, we aimed to analyse temporal changes in the distribution of the leading causes of mortality produced by COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico to understand excess mortality not directly related to the virus infection.MethodsWe did a longitudinal retrospective study of the leading causes of mortality and their variation with respect to cause-specific expected deaths in Mexico from January 2020 through December 2021 using death certificate information. We fitted a Poisson regression model to predict cause-specific mortality during the pandemic period, based on the 2015-2019 registered mortality. We estimated excess deaths as a weekly difference between expected and observed deaths and added up for the entire period. We expressed all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality as a percentage change with respect to predicted deaths by our model.FindingsCOVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2020-2021 (439,582 deaths). All-cause total excess mortality was 600,590 deaths (38⋅2% [95% CI: 36·0 to 40·4] over expected). The largest increases in cause-specific mortality, occurred in diabetes (36·8% over expected), respiratory infections (33·3%), ischaemic heart diseases (32·5%) and hypertensive diseases (25·0%). The cause-groups that experienced significant decreases with respect to the expected pre-pandemic mortality were infectious and parasitic diseases (-20·8%), skin diseases (-17·5%), non-traffic related accidents (-16·7%) and malignant neoplasm (-5·3%).InterpretationMortality from COVID-19 became the first cause of death in 2020-2021, the increase in other causes of death may be explained by changes in the health service utilization patterns caused by hospital conversion or fear of the population using them. Cause-misclassification cannot be ruled out.FundingThis study was funded by Conacyt.

Project description:ImportanceIn early 2020, the United States declared a public health emergency in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and implemented a variety of social distancing measures. The association between the COVID-19 pandemic and the number of pediatric admissions is unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the changes in patterns of pediatric admissions in 2020 compared with the prior decade.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study included 49 US hospitals contributing to the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Inpatient admissions were transformed into time-series data, and ensemble forecasting models were generated to analyze admissions across a range of diagnoses in 2020 compared with previous years. The setting was inpatient admissions. All patients discharged between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2020, from an inpatient hospital encounter were included.Main outcomes and measuresNumber of hospital admissions by primary diagnosis for each encounter.ResultsOf 5 424 688 inpatient encounters among 3 372 839 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 5.1 [0.7-13.3] years; 2 823 748 [52.1%] boys; 3 171 224 [58.5%] White individuals) at 49 hospitals, 213 571 (3.9%) were between January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020. There was a decrease in the number of admissions beginning in March 2020 compared with the period from 2010 to 2019. At the nadir, admissions in April 2020 were reduced 45.4% compared with prior years (23 798 in April 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of 43 550 [42 110-43 946] in April 2010-2019). Inflation-adjusted hospital charges decreased 27.7% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with prior years ($4 327 580 511 in 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of $5 983 142 102 [$5 762 690 022-$6 324 978 456] in 2010-2019). Seasonal patterns were evident between 2010 and 2019 for a variety of common pediatric conditions, including asthma, atrial septal defects, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, Kawasaki syndrome, mental health admissions, and trauma. Ensemble models were able to discern seasonal patterns in admission diagnoses and accurately predicted admission rates from July 2019 until December 2019 but not from January 2020 to June 2020. All diagnoses except for birth decreased below the model 95% CIs between January 2020 and June 2020.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, pediatric admissions to US hospitals decreased in 2020 across an array of pediatric conditions. Although some conditions may have decreased in incidence, others may represent unmet needs in pediatric care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Different Trends in Excess Mortality in a Central European Country Compared to Main European Regions in the Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): a Hungarian Analysis.

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