Dataset Information

Development and internal validation of a multivariable prediction model for 6-year risk of stroke: a cohort study in middle-aged and elderly Chinese population.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To develop and internally validate a prediction model for 6-year risk of stroke and its primary subtypes in middle-aged and elderly Chinese population.

Design

This is a retrospective cohort study from a prospectively collected database.

Participants

We included a total 3124 adults aged 45-80 years, free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline in the 2009-2015 cohort of China Health and Nutrition Survey.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The outcome of the prediction model was stroke. Investigated predictors were: age, gender, body mass index (BMI), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), hypertension (HBP), drinking status, smoking status, diabetes and site. Stepwise multiple Cox regression was applied to identify independent predictors. A nomogram was constructed to predict 6-year risk of stroke based on the multiple analysis results. Bootstraps with 1000 resamples were applied to both C-index and calibration curve.

Result

The overall incidence of overall stroke was 2.98%. Age, gender, HBP and TC were found as significant risk predictors for overall stroke; age, gender, HBP and LDL-C were found as significant risk predictors for ischaemic stroke; age, gender, HBP, BMI and HDL-C were found as significant risk predictors for haemorrhagic stroke. The nomogram was constructed using significant variables included in the model, with a C-index of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.72 to 0.76), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71 to 0.77), and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78 to 0.84) for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, and haemorrhagic stroke model, respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated the good agreements between predicted and observed 6-year risk probability.

Conclusion

Our nomogram could be convenient, easy to use and effective prognoses for predicting 6-year risk of stroke in middle-aged and elderly Chinese population.

SUBMITTER: Yu Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8264906 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAbdominal obesity has long been considered as a crucial risk factor of stroke. Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI), a novel surrogate indicator of abdominal obesity, has been confirmed as a better predictor for coronary heart disease than other indicators in Asian population. However, the data on the relationship of CVAI with stroke is limited. The objective of our study is evaluating the relationship between CVAI and stroke incidence.MethodsIn the present study, we enrolled 7242 middle-aged and elderly residents from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and placed them into groups according to quartile of CVAI. The outcome of interest was stroke. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the cumulative incidences of stroke. Cox regression analyses and multivariable-adjusted restricted cubic spline (RCS) curves were performed to evaluate the relationship between CVAI and incident stroke. Multiple sensitivity analyses and subgroups analyses were performed to test the robustness of the findings.ResultsDuring a median 84 months of follow-up, 612 (8.45%) participants experienced incident stroke, and the incidences of stroke for participants in quartiles (Q) 1-4 of CVAI were 4.42%, 7.29%, 9.06% and 13.04%, respectively. In the fully adjusted model, per 1.0-SD increment in CVAI has a significant increased risk of incident stroke: hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 1.17 (1.07-1.28); compared with participants in Q1 of CVAI, the HRs (95% CI) of incident stroke among those in Q2-4 were 1.47 (1.10-1.95), 1.62 (1.22-2.15), and 1.70 (1.28-2.27), respectively. Subgroups analyses suggested the positive association was significant in male participants, without diabetes, hypertension and heart disease. The findings were robust in all the sensitivity analyses. Additional, RCS curves showed a significant dose-response relationship of CVAI with risk of incident stroke (P for non-linear trend = 0.319).ConclusionIncreased CVAI is significantly associated with higher risk of stroke incidence, especially in male individuals, without hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. The findings suggest that baseline CVAI is a reliable and effective biomarker for risk stratification of stroke, which has far-reaching significance for primary prevention of stroke and public health.