Development and clinical validation of a novel six-gene signature for accurately predicting the recurrence risk of patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer.
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ABSTRACT: Background
A large number of patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer (CRC) have a high recurrence rate after radical resection. We aimed to develop a novel tool to stratify patients with different recurrence-risk for optimizing decision-making in post-operative surveillance and therapeutic regimens.Methods
We retrospectively enrolled four independent cohorts from the Gene Expression Omnibus and 66 CRC tissues from our hospital. The initial signature discovery was conducted in GSE143985 (n = 91). This was followed by independent validation of this signature in GSE17536 (n = 111), GSE29621 (n = 40), and GSE92921 (n = 59). Further experimental validation using qRT-PCR assays (n = 66) was performed to ensure the robustness and clinical feasible of this signature.Results
We developed a novel recurrence-related signature consisting of six genes. This signature was validated to be significantly associated with dismal recurrence-free survival in five cohorts GSE143985 (HR: 4.296 [2.612-7.065], P < 0.0001), GSE17536 (HR: 2.354 [1.662-3.334], P < 0.0001), GSE29621 (HR: 3.934 [1.622-9.539], P = 0.0024), GSE92921 (HR: 7.080 [2.011-24.924], P = 0.0023), and qPCR assays (HR: 3.654 [2.217-6.020], P < 0.0001). This signature was also proven to be an independent recurrent factor. More importantly, this signature displayed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the recurrence-risk at 1-5 years, with most AUCs were above 0.9, average C-index for the five cohorts was 0.8795, and near-perfect calibration.Conclusions
We discovered and experimental validated a novel gene signature with stable and powerful performance for identifying patients at high recurrence-risk in stage II/III CRC.
SUBMITTER: Liu Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8265123 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundImmune-related genes (IRGs) play important roles in the tumor immune microenvironment and can affect the prognosis of cancer. This study aimed to construct a novel IRG signature for prognostic evaluation of stage II colorectal cancer (CRC).MethodsGene expression profiles and clinical data for stage II CRC patients were collected from the Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus database. Univariate, multivariate Cox regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to develop the IRG signature, namely IRGCRCII. A nomogram was constructed, and the "Cell Type Identification by Estimating Relative Subsets of RNA Transcripts" (CIBERSORT) method was used to estimate immune cell infiltration. The expression levels of genes and proteins were validated by qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry in 30 pairs of primary stage II CRC and matched normal tissues.ResultsA total of 466 patients with stage II CRC were included, and 274 differentially expressed IRGs were identified. Six differentially expressed IRGs were detected and used to construct the IRGCRCII signature, which could significantly stratify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups in terms of disease-free survival in three cohorts: training, test, and external validation (GSE39582). Receiver operating characteristics analysis revealed that the area under the curves of the IRGCRCII signature were significantly greater than those of the OncotypeDX colon signature at 1 (0.759 vs. 0.623), 3 (0.875 vs. 0.629), and 5 years (0.906 vs. 0.698) disease-free survival, respectively. The nomogram performed well in the concordance index (0.779) and calibration curves. The high-risk group had a significantly higher percentage of infiltrated immune cells (e.g., M2 macrophages, plasma cells, resting mast cells) than the low-risk group. Finally, the results of qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry experiments performed on 30 pairs of clinical specimens were consistent with bioinformatics analysis.ConclusionThis study developed and validated a novel immune prognostic signature based on six differentially expressed IRGs for predicting disease-free survival and immune status in patients with stage II CRC, which may reflect immune dysregulation in the tumor immune microenvironment.
| S-EPMC8129521 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & Aims. The current staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on TNM classification allows prediction of potential recurrence. However, it does not necessarily make reliable personalized prediction of prognosis. In this paper we describe combination of clinicopathological data and gene signature of dissected tumor specimen with stage II and III CRC patients would improve the situation.. Methods. A total of 1978 CRC were collected over 5 years, and then 371 stage II and 322 stage III of them with more than 45.9 months records were subjected to clinicopathological feature analyses. Out of this collection, 129 stage II and III CRC cases were selected for analyses of gene expression profiles with resected specimen. The gene signatures were analyzed by repeated random divisions of the samples into training and test sets to extract discriminator genes. After testing the applicability of this discriminator set, it was subjected to validation using a newly obtained set of 69 samples. Results. The pathological factors in solo or in combinations could not make personalized recurrence prediction, except for partial success with stage II patients. The gene signature, on the other hand, was capable of producing a set of discriminator genes, though the accuracy was yet to be improved. We observed that the best result was obtained when discriminators were selected from stage II CRC samples and used for prognosis of stage II CRC. When stage III cases were included in the process of discriminator extraction or in the process to validate samples, the results were poorer. Finally, we examined 31 independent stage II samples with a set of 30 such discriminators and were able to obtain results with 78 % accuracy, 90 % negative predictive value (NPV), and 55% positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusions. Independent clinicopathological variables were not able to predict prognosis of individual patient, unless the factors are combined. On the other hand, gene signatures allowed accurate prediction of prognosis for individuals, especially with stage II CRC, suggesting its potential use for selection of best treatment option for individual patients. The accuracy of discriminator prediction will be further improved when we take the evolution of CRC into consideration. Of 198 samples, 129 represented the discovery phase and 69 represented the validation phase.
2009-07-02 | E-GEOD-12032 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Background & Aims. The current staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on TNM classification allows prediction of potential recurrence. However, it does not necessarily make reliable personalized prediction of prognosis. In this paper we describe combination of clinicopathological data and gene signature of dissected tumor specimen with stage II and III CRC patients would improve the situation.. Methods. A total of 1978 CRC were collected over 5 years, and then 371 stage II and 322 stage III of them with more than 45.9 months records were subjected to clinicopathological feature analyses. Out of this collection, 129 stage II and III CRC cases were selected for analyses of gene expression profiles with resected specimen. The gene signatures were analyzed by repeated random divisions of the samples into training and test sets to extract discriminator genes. After testing the applicability of this discriminator set, it was subjected to validation using a newly obtained set of 69 samples. Results. The pathological factors in solo or in combinations could not make personalized recurrence prediction, except for partial success with stage II patients. The gene signature, on the other hand, was capable of producing a set of discriminator genes, though the accuracy was yet to be improved. We observed that the best result was obtained when discriminators were selected from stage II CRC samples and used for prognosis of stage II CRC. When stage III cases were included in the process of discriminator extraction or in the process to validate samples, the results were poorer. Finally, we examined 31 independent stage II samples with a set of 30 such discriminators and were able to obtain results with 78 % accuracy, 90 % negative predictive value (NPV), and 55% positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusions. Independent clinicopathological variables were not able to predict prognosis of individual patient, unless the factors are combined. On the other hand, gene signatures allowed accurate prediction of prognosis for individuals, especially with stage II CRC, suggesting its potential use for selection of best treatment option for individual patients. The accuracy of discriminator prediction will be further improved when we take the evolution of CRC into consideration.
2009-07-02 | GSE12032 | GEO
Project description:Objective: To evaluate whether a radiomics signature could improve stratification of postoperative risk and prediction of chemotherapy benefit in stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Material and Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 299 stage II CRC patients from January 2010 to December 2015. Based on preoperative portal venous-phase CT scans, radiomics features were generated and selected to build a radiomics score (Rad-score) using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method. The minority group was balanced by the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). Predictive models were built with the Rad-score and clinicopathological factors, and the area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate their performance. A nomogram was also constructed for predicting 3-year disease-free survival (DFS). The performance of the nomogram was assessed with a concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. Results: Overall, 114 features were selected to construct the Rad-score, which was significantly associated with the 3-year DFS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the Rad-score, CA724 level, mismatch repair status, and perineural invasion were independent predictors of recurrence. Results showed that the Rad-score can classify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups in the training cohort (AUC 0.886) and the validation cohort (AUC 0.874). On this basis, a nomogram that integrated the Rad-score and clinical variables demonstrated superior performance (AUC 0.954, 0.906) than the clinical model alone (AUC 0.765, 0.705) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.872, and the performance was acceptable. Conclusion: Our radiomics-based model can reliably predict recurrence risk in stage II CRC patients and potentially provide complementary prognostic value to the traditional clinicopathological risk factors for better identification of patients who are most likely to benefit from adjuvant therapy. The proposed nomogram promises to be an effective tool for personalized postoperative surveillance for stage II CRC patients.
| S-EPMC8017337 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA considerable number of patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer (CRC) will relapse within 5 years after surgery, which is a leading cause of death in early-stage CRC. The current TNM stage system is limited due to the heterogeneous clinical outcomes displayed in patients of same stage. Therefore, searching for a novel tool to identify patients at high recurrence-risk for improving post-operative individual management is an urgent need.MethodsUsing four independent public cohorts and qRT-PCR data from 66 tissues, we developed and validated a recurrence-associated immune signature (RAIS) based on global immune genes. The clinical and molecular features, tumor immune microenvironment landscape, and immune checkpoints profiles of RAIS were also investigated.ResultsIn five independent cohorts, this novel scoring system was proven to be an independent recurrent factor and displayed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the recurrence-risk at 1~5 years. Further analysis revealed that the high-risk group displayed high mutation rate of TP53, while the low-risk group had more abundance of activated CD4+/CD8+ T cells and high expression of PD-1/PD-L1.ConclusionsThe RAIS model is highly predictive of recurrence in patients with stage II/III CRC, which might serve as a powerful tool to further optimize decision-making in adjuvant chemotherapy and immunotherapy, as well as tailor surveillance protocol for individual patients.
| S-EPMC8358813 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate risk stratification for patients with stage II/III colon cancer is pivotal for postoperative treatment decisions. Here, we aimed to identify and validate a circRNA-based signature that could improve postoperative prognostic stratification for these patients. In current retrospective analysis, we included 667 patients with R0 resected stage II/III colon cancer. Using RNA-seq analysis of 20 paired frozen tissues collected post-operation, we profiled differential circRNA expression between patients with and without recurrence, followed by quantitative validation. With clinical information, we generated a four-circRNA-based cirScore to classify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups in the training cohort. The patients with high cirScores in the training cohort had a shorter disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than patients with low cirScores. The prognostic capacity of the classifier was validated in the internal and external cohorts. Loss-of-function assays indicated that the selected circRNAs played functional roles in colon cancer progression. Overall, our four-circRNA-based classifier is a reliable prognostic tool for postoperative disease recurrence in patients with stage II/III colon cancer.
| S-SCDT-EMM-2018-10168 | biostudies-other
Project description:Accurate risk stratification for patients with stage II/III colon cancer is pivotal for postoperative treatment decisions. Here, we aimed to identify and validate a circRNA-based signature that could improve postoperative prognostic stratification for these patients. In current retrospective analysis, we included 667 patients with R0 resected stage II/III colon cancer. Using RNA-seq analysis of 20 paired frozen tissues collected postoperation, we profiled differential circRNA expression between patients with and without recurrence, followed by quantitative validation. With clinical information, we generated a four-circRNA-based cirScore to classify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups in the training cohort. The patients with high cirScores in the training cohort had a shorter disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than patients with low cirScores. The prognostic capacity of the classifier was validated in the internal and external cohorts. Loss-of-function assays indicated that the selected circRNAs played functional roles in colon cancer progression. Overall, our four-circRNA-based classifier is a reliable prognostic tool for postoperative disease recurrence in patients with stage II/III colon cancer.
| S-EPMC6783650 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:The overall survival (OS) of patients diagnosed with stage II-III colorectal cancer (CRC) can vary greatly, even between patients with the same tumor stage. We aimed to design a nomogram to predict OS in resected, stage II-III CRC and stratify patients with CRC into different risk groups. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Based on data from 873 patients with CRC, we used univariate Cox regression analysis to select the significant prognostic features, which were subjected to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm for feature selection. Cross-validation was used to confirm suitable tuning parameters (?) for LASSO logistic regression. Then, the nomogram was used to estimate 3- and 5-year OS based on the multivariable Cox regression model. The survival curves of the two groups were produced using the Kaplan-Meier method. Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. RESULTS:Preoperative mean platelet volume, preoperative platelet distribution width, monocytes, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors by LASSO regression and integrated for the construction of the nomogram. The nomogram provided good discrimination, with C-indices of 0.67 and 0.69 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Calibration plots illustrated excellent agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations for 3- and 5-year OS. Moreover, a significant difference in OS was shown between patients stratified into different risk groups (P < .001). CONCLUSION:We constructed and validated an original predictive nomogram for OS in patients with CRC after surgery, facilitating physicians to appraise the individual survival of postoperative patients accurately and identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive treatment and follow-up strategies.
| S-EPMC7131840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Approximately 20% of patients with stage II colorectal cancer will experience a relapse. Current clinical-pathologic stratification factors do not allow clear identification of these high-risk patients. ColoPrint (Agendia, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, http://www.agendia.com) is a gene expression classifier that distinguishes patients with low or high risk of disease relapse.ColoPrint was developed using whole-genome expression data and validated in several independent validation cohorts. Stage II patients from these studies were pooled (n = 416), and ColoPrint was compared with clinical risk factors described in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) 2013 Guidelines for Colon Cancer. Median follow-up was 81 months. Most patients (70%) did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Risk of relapse (ROR) was defined as survival until first event of recurrence or death from cancer.In the pooled stage II data set, ColoPrint identified 63% of patients as low risk with a 5-year ROR of 10%, whereas high-risk patients (37%) had a 5-year ROR of 21%, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.16 (p = .004). This remained significant in a multivariate model that included number of lymph nodes retrieved and microsatellite instability. In the T3 microsatellite-stable subgroup (n = 301), ColoPrint classified 59% of patients as low risk with a 5-year ROR of 9.9%. High-risk patients (31%) had a 22.4% ROR (HR: 2.41; p = .005). In contrast, the NCCN clinical high-risk factors were unable to distinguish high- and low-risk patients (15% vs. 13% ROR; p = .55).ColoPrint significantly improved prognostic accuracy independent of microsatellite status or clinical variables, facilitating the identification of patients at higher risk who might be considered for additional treatment.
| S-EPMC4319631 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose: The current tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is inadequate at identifying patients with high-risk colorectal cancer. Using a systematic and comprehensive biomarker discovery and validation approach, we aimed to identify an miRNA recurrence classifier (MRC) that can improve upon the current TNM staging as well as is superior to currently offered molecular assays.Experimental Design: Three independent genome-wide miRNA expression profiling datasets were used for biomarker discovery (N = 158) and in silico validation (N = 109 and N = 40) to identify an miRNA signature for predicting tumor recurrence in patients with colorectal cancer. Subsequently, this signature was analytically trained and validated in retrospectively collected independent patient cohorts of fresh-frozen (N = 127, cohort 1) and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE; N = 165, cohort 2 and N = 139, cohort 3) specimens.Results: We identified an 8-miRNA signature that significantly predicted recurrence-free interval (RFI) in the discovery (P = 0.002) and two independent publicly available datasets (P = 0.00006 and P = 0.002). The RT-PCR-based validation in independent clinical cohorts revealed that MRC-derived high-risk patients succumb to significantly poor RFI in patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer [cohort 1: hazard ratio (HR), 3.44 (1.56-7.45), P = 0.001; cohort 2: HR, 6.15 (3.33-11.35), P = 0.001; and cohort 3: HR, 4.23 (2.26-7.92), P = 0.0003]. In multivariate analyses, MRC emerged as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence and achieved superior predictive accuracy over the currently available molecular assays. The RT-PCR-based MRC risk score = (-0.1218 × miR-744) + (-3.7142 × miR-429) + (-2.2051 × miR-362) + (3.0564 × miR-200b) + (2.4997 × miR-191) + (-0.0065 × miR-30c2) + (2.2224 × miR-30b) + (-1.1162 × miR-33a).Conclusions: This novel MRC is superior to currently used clinicopathologic features, as well as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria, and works regardless of adjuvant chemotherapy status in identifying patients with high-risk stage II and III colorectal cancer. This can be readily deployed in clinical practice with FFPE specimens for decision-making pending further model testing and validation. Clin Cancer Res; 24(16); 3867-77. ©2018 AACRSee related commentary by Rodriguez et al., p. 3787.
| S-EPMC6095767 | biostudies-literature