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Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Norway has not implemented universal varicella vaccination, despite the considerable clinical and economic burden of varicella disease.

Methods

An existing dynamic transmission model of varicella infection was calibrated to age-specific seroprevalence rates in Norway. Six two-dose vaccination strategies were considered, consisting of combinations of two formulations each of a monovalent varicella vaccine (Varivax® or Varilrix®) and a quadrivalent vaccine against measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (ProQuad® or PriorixTetra®), with the first dose given with a monovalent vaccine at age 15 months, and the second dose with either a monovalent or quadrivalent vaccine at either 18 months, 7 or 11 years. Costs were considered from the perspectives of both the health care system and society. Quality-adjusted life-years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios relative to no vaccination were calculated. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of vaccine efficacy, price, the costs of a lost workday and of inpatient and outpatient care, vaccination coverage, and discount rate.

Results

In the absence of varicella vaccination, the annual incidence of natural varicella is estimated to be 1,359 per 100,000 population, and the cumulative numbers of varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 50 years are projected to be 1.81 million, 10,161, and 61, respectively. Universal varicella vaccination is projected to reduce the natural varicella incidence rate to 48-59 per 100,000 population, depending on the vaccination strategy, and to reduce varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 75-85%, 67-79%, and 75-79%, respectively. All strategies were cost-saving, with the most cost-saving as two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 7 years (payer perspective) and two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 18 months (societal perspective).

Conclusions

All modeled two-dose varicella vaccination strategies are projected to lead to substantial reductions in varicella disease and to be cost saving compared to no vaccination in Norway.

SUBMITTER: Pawaskar M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8266049 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThough the disease burden of varicella in Europe has been reported previously, the economic burden is still unknown. This study estimated the economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) in 2018 Euros from both payer (direct costs) and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives.MethodsWe estimated the country specific and overall annual costs of varicella in absence of UVV in 31 European countries (27 EU countries, plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom). To obtain country specific unit costs and associated healthcare utilization, we conducted a systematic literature review, searching in PubMed, EMBASE, NEED, DARE, REPEC, Open Grey, and public heath websites (1/1/1999-10/15/2019). The number of annual varicella cases, deaths, outpatient visits and hospitalizations were calculated (without UVV) based on age-specific incidence rates (Riera-Montes et al. 2017) and 2018 population data by country. Unit cost per varicella case and disease burden data were combined using stochastic modeling to estimate 2018 costs stratified by country, age and healthcare resource.ResultsOverall annual total costs associated with varicella were estimated to be €662,592,061 (Range: €309,552,363 to €1,015,631,760) in Europe in absence of UVV. Direct and indirect costs were estimated at €229,076,206 (Range €144,809,557 to €313,342,856) and €433,515,855 (Range €164,742,806 to €702,288,904), respectively. Total cost per case was €121.45 (direct: €41.99; indirect: €79.46). Almost half of the costs were attributed to cases in children under 5 years, owing mainly to caregiver work loss. The distribution of costs by healthcare resource was similar across countries. France and Germany accounted for 49.28% of total annual costs, most likely due to a combination of high numbers of cases and unit costs in these countries.ConclusionsThe economic burden of varicella across Europe in the absence of UVV is substantial (over 600 M€), primarily driven by caregiver burden including work productivity losses.