Pooling decisions decreases variation in response bias and accuracy.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kurvers RHJM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8267549 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:ImportanceA goal of health care is to reduce symptoms and improve health status, whereas continuing dubious treatments can contribute to complacency, discourage the search for alternatives, and lead to shortfalls in care.ObjectiveTo test a potential bias in intuitive reasoning following a marginal improvement in symptoms after a dubious treatment (post hoc bias).Design, setting, and participantsSurveys eliciting treatment recommendations for hypothetical patients were sent to community members throughout North America recruited via an online survey platform in the early winter months of 2023 and 2024 and presented to health care professionals (pharmacists who were approached in person using a secret shopper technique) in the summer months of 2023.ExposureRespondents received randomized versions of surveys that differed according to whether vague symptoms improved or remained unchanged after a dubious treatment.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was a recommendation to continue treatment.ResultsIn total, 1497 community members (mean [SD] age, 38.1 [12.5] years; 663 female [55.3%]) and 100 health care professionals were contacted. The first scenario described a patient with a sore throat who took unprescribed antibiotics; respondents were more likely to continue antibiotics after initial treatment if there was a marginal improvement in symptoms vs when symptoms remained unchanged (67 of 150 respondents [45%] vs 25 of respondents [17%]; odds ratio [OR], 3.98 [95% CI, 2.33-6.78]; P < .001). Another scenario described a patient with wrist pain who wore a copper bracelet; respondents were more likely to continue wearing the copper bracelet after initial care was followed by a marginal improvement in symptoms vs when symptoms remained unchanged (78 of 100 respondents [78%] vs 25 of 99 respondents [25%]; OR, 16.19 [95% CI, 5.32-19.52]; P < .001). A third scenario described a patient with fatigue who took unprescribed vitamin B12; respondents were more likely to continue taking vitamin B12 when initial treatment was followed by a marginal improvement in symptoms vs when symptoms remained unchanged (80 of 100 respondents [80%] vs 33 of 100 respondents [33%]; OR, 7.91 [95% CI, 4.18-14.97]; P < .001). Four further scenarios involving dubious treatments found similar results, including when tested on health care professionals.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study of clinical scenarios, a marginal improvement in symptoms led patients to continue a dubious and sometimes costly treatment, suggesting that clinicians should caution patients against post hoc bias.
| S-EPMC11375477 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Learning classification tasks of [Formula: see text] inputs typically consist of [Formula: see text]) max-pooling (MP) operators along the entire feedforward deep architecture. Here we show, using the CIFAR-10 database, that pooling decisions adjacent to the last convolutional layer significantly enhance accuracies. In particular, average accuracies of the advanced-VGG with [Formula: see text] layers (A-VGGm) architectures are 0.936, 0.940, 0.954, 0.955, and 0.955 for m = 6, 8, 14, 13, and 16, respectively. The results indicate A-VGG8's accuracy is superior to VGG16's, and that the accuracies of A-VGG13 and A-VGG16 are equal, and comparable to that of Wide-ResNet16. In addition, replacing the three fully connected (FC) layers with one FC layer, A-VGG6 and A-VGG14, or with several linear activation FC layers, yielded similar accuracies. These significantly enhanced accuracies stem from training the most influential input-output routes, in comparison to the inferior routes selected following multiple MP decisions along the deep architecture. In addition, accuracies are sensitive to the order of the non-commutative MP and average pooling operators adjacent to the output layer, varying the number and location of training routes. The results call for the reexamination of previously proposed deep architectures and their accuracies by utilizing the proposed pooling strategy adjacent to the output layer.
| S-EPMC10471572 | biostudies-literature
Project description:When making decisions regarding the investment and design for a Phase 3 programme in the development of a new drug, the results from preceding Phase 2 trials are an important source of information. However, only projects in which the Phase 2 results show promising treatment effects will typically be considered for a Phase 3 investment decision. This implies that, for those projects where Phase 3 is pursued, the underlying Phase 2 estimates are subject to selection bias. We will in this article investigate the nature of this selection bias based on a selection of distributions for the treatment effect. We illustrate some properties of Bayesian estimates, providing shrinkage of the Phase 2 estimate to counteract the selection bias. We further give some empirical guidance regarding the choice of prior distribution and comment on the consequences for decision-making in investment and planning for Phase 3 programmes.
| S-EPMC9290610 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Jury decisions are among the most consequential social decisions in which bias plays a notable role. While courts take measures to reduce the influence of non-evidentiary factors, jurors may still incorporate biases into their decisions. One common bias, crime-type bias, is the extent to which the perceived strength of a prosecutor's case depends on the severity of the crime. Moral judgment, affect and social cognition have been proposed as core processes underlying this and other biases. Behavioral evidence alone has been insufficient to distinguish these explanations. To identify the mechanism underlying crime-type bias, we collected functional magnetic resonance imaging patterns of brain activation from mock jurors reading criminal scenarios. Brain patterns from crime-type bias were most similar to those associated with social cognition (mentalizing and racial bias) but not affect or moral judgment. Our results support a central role for social cognition in juror decisions and suggest that crime-type bias and cultural bias may arise from similar mechanisms.
| S-EPMC9949508 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The interpretation of forensic fingerprint evidence relies on the expertise of latent print examiners. The National Research Council of the National Academies and the legal and forensic sciences communities have called for research to measure the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners' decisions, a challenging and complex problem in need of systematic analysis. Our research is focused on the development of empirical approaches to studying this problem. Here, we report on the first large-scale study of the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners' decisions, in which 169 latent print examiners each compared approximately 100 pairs of latent and exemplar fingerprints from a pool of 744 pairs. The fingerprints were selected to include a range of attributes and quality encountered in forensic casework, and to be comparable to searches of an automated fingerprint identification system containing more than 58 million subjects. This study evaluated examiners on key decision points in the fingerprint examination process; procedures used operationally include additional safeguards designed to minimize errors. Five examiners made false positive errors for an overall false positive rate of 0.1%. Eighty-five percent of examiners made at least one false negative error for an overall false negative rate of 7.5%. Independent examination of the same comparisons by different participants (analogous to blind verification) was found to detect all false positive errors and the majority of false negative errors in this study. Examiners frequently differed on whether fingerprints were suitable for reaching a conclusion.
| S-EPMC3093498 | biostudies-literature
Project description:When external feedback about decision outcomes is lacking, agents need to adapt their decision policies based on an internal estimate of the correctness of their choices (i.e., decision confidence). We hypothesized that agents use confidence to continuously update the tradeoff between the speed and accuracy of their decisions: When confidence is low in one decision, the agent needs more evidence before committing to a choice in the next decision, leading to slower but more accurate decisions. We tested this hypothesis by fitting a bounded accumulation decision model to behavioral data from three different perceptual choice tasks. Decision bounds indeed depended on the reported confidence on the previous trial, independent of objective accuracy. This increase in decision bound was predicted by a centro-parietal EEG component sensitive to confidence. We conclude that internally computed neural signals of confidence predict the ongoing adjustment of decision policies.
| S-EPMC6711665 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Anticipating a forthcoming sensory experience facilitates perception for expected stimuli but also hinders perception for less likely alternatives. Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that expectation biases arise from feature-level predictions that enhance early sensory representations and facilitate evidence accumulation for contextually probable stimuli while suppressing alternatives. Reasonably then, the extent to which prior knowledge biases subsequent sensory processing should depend on the precision of expectations at the feature level as well as the degree to which expected features match those of an observed stimulus. In the present study we investigated how these two sources of uncertainty modulated pre- and post-stimulus bias mechanisms in the drift-diffusion model during a probabilistic face/house discrimination task. We tested several plausible models of choice bias, concluding that predictive cues led to a bias in both the starting-point and rate of evidence accumulation favoring the more probable stimulus category. We further tested the hypotheses that prior bias in the starting-point was conditional on the feature-level uncertainty of category expectations and that dynamic bias in the drift-rate was modulated by the match between expected and observed stimulus features. Starting-point estimates suggested that subjects formed a constant prior bias in favor of the face category, which exhibits less feature-level variability, that was strengthened or weakened by trial-wise predictive cues. Furthermore, we found that the gain on face/house evidence was increased for stimuli with less ambiguous features and that this relationship was enhanced by valid category expectations. These findings offer new evidence that bridges psychological models of decision-making with recent predictive coding theories of perception.
| S-EPMC4126168 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Decision-making is guided by memories of option values. However, retrieving items from memory renders them malleable. Here, we show that merely retrieving values from memory and making a choice between options is sufficient both to induce changes to stimulus-reward associations in the hippocampus and to bias future decision-making. After allowing participants to make repeated choices between reward-conditioned stimuli, in the absence of any outcome, we observe that participants prefer stimuli they have previously chosen, and neglect previously unchosen stimuli, over otherwise identical-valued options. Using functional brain imaging, we show that decisions induce changes to hippocampal representations of stimulus-outcome associations. These changes are correlated with future decision biases. Our results indicate that choice-induced preference changes are partially driven by choice-induced modification of memory representations and suggest that merely making a choice - even without experiencing any outcomes - induces associative plasticity.
| S-EPMC7335207 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Presence-only records may provide data on the distributions of rare species, but commonly suffer from large, unknown biases due to their typically haphazard collection schemes. Presence-absence or count data collected in systematic, planned surveys are more reliable but typically less abundant.We proposed a probabilistic model to allow for joint analysis of presence-only and survey data to exploit their complementary strengths. Our method pools presence-only and presence-absence data for many species and maximizes a joint likelihood, simultaneously estimating and adjusting for the sampling bias affecting the presence-only data. By assuming that the sampling bias is the same for all species, we can borrow strength across species to efficiently estimate the bias and improve our inference from presence-only data.We evaluate our model's performance on data for 36 eucalypt species in south-eastern Australia. We find that presence-only records exhibit a strong sampling bias towards the coast and towards Sydney, the largest city. Our data-pooling technique substantially improves the out-of-sample predictive performance of our model when the amount of available presence-absence data for a given species is scarceIf we have only presence-only data and no presence-absence data for a given species, but both types of data for several other species that suffer from the same spatial sampling bias, then our method can obtain an unbiased estimate of the first species' geographic range.
| S-EPMC5102514 | biostudies-literature
Project description:SOX2 and OCT4 are pioneer transcription factors playing a key role in embryonic stem (ES) cell self-renewal and differentiation. How temporal fluctuations in their expression levels bias lineage commitment is unknown. Here we generated knock-in reporter fusion ES cell lines allowing to monitor endogenous SOX2 and OCT4 protein fluctuations in living cells and to determine their impact on mesendodermal and neuroectodermal commitment. We found that small differences in SOX2 and OCT4 levels impact cell fate commitment in G1 but not in S phase. Elevated SOX2 levels modestly increased neuroectodermal commitment and decreased mesendodermal commitment upon directed differentiation. In contrast, elevated OCT4 levels strongly biased ES cells towards both neuroectodermal and mesendodermal fates. Using ATAC-seq on ES cells gated for different endogenous SOX2 and OCT4 levels, we found that high OCT4 levels increased chromatin accessibility at differentiation-associated enhancers. This suggests that small endogenous fluctuations of pioneer transcription factors can bias cell fate decisions by concentration-dependent priming of differentiation-associated enhancers.
2019-09-23 | GSE126554 | GEO