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Application of Genomic Selection at the Early Stage of Breeding Pipeline in Tropical Maize.

ABSTRACT: In maize, doubled haploid (DH) line production capacity of large-sized maize breeding programs often exceeds the capacity to phenotypically evaluate the complete set of testcross candidates in multi-location trials. The ability to partially select DH lines based on genotypic data while maintaining or improving genetic gains for key traits using phenotypic selection can result in significant resource savings. The present study aimed to evaluate genomic selection (GS) prediction scenarios for grain yield and agronomic traits of one of the tropical maize breeding pipelines of CIMMYT in eastern Africa, based on multi-year empirical data for designing a GS-based strategy at the early stages of the pipeline. We used field data from 3,068 tropical maize DH lines genotyped using rAmpSeq markers and evaluated as test crosses in well-watered (WW) and water-stress (WS) environments in Kenya from 2017 to 2019. Three prediction schemes were compared: (1) 1 year of performance data to predict a second year; (2) 2 years of pooled data to predict performance in the third year, and (3) using individual or pooled data plus converting a certain proportion of individuals from the testing set (TST) to the training set (TRN) to predict the next year's data. Employing five-fold cross-validation, the mean prediction accuracies for grain yield (GY) varied from 0.19 to 0.29 under WW and 0.22 to 0.31 under WS, when the 1-year datasets were used training set to predict a second year's data as a testing set. The mean prediction accuracies increased to 0.32 under WW and 0.31 under WS when the 2-year datasets were used as a training set to predict the third-year data set. In a forward prediction scenario, good predictive abilities (0.53 to 0.71) were found when the training set consisted of the previous year's breeding data and converting 30% of the next year's data from the testing set to the training set. The prediction accuracy for anthesis date and plant height across WW and WS environments obtained using 1-year data and integrating 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90% of the TST set to TRN set was much higher than those trained in individual years. We demonstrate that by increasing the TRN set to include genotypic and phenotypic data from the previous year and combining only 10-30% of the lines from the year of testing, the predicting accuracy can be increased, which in turn could be used to replace the first stage of field-based screening partially, thus saving significant costs associated with the testcross formation and multi-location testcross evaluation.

SUBMITTER: Beyene Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8274566 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:We developed an integrated R library called BWGS to enable easy computation of Genomic Estimates of Breeding values (GEBV) for genomic selection. BWGS, for BreedWheat Genomic selection, was developed in the framework of a cooperative private-public partnership project called Breedwheat (https://breedwheat.fr) and relies on existing R-libraries, all freely available from CRAN servers. The two main functions enable to run 1) replicated random cross validations within a training set of genotyped and phenotyped lines and 2) GEBV prediction, for a set of genotyped-only lines. Options are available for 1) missing data imputation, 2) markers and training set selection and 3) genomic prediction with 15 different methods, either parametric or semi-parametric. The usefulness and efficiency of BWGS are illustrated using a population of wheat lines from a real breeding programme. Adjusted yield data from historical trials (highly unbalanced design) were used for testing the options of BWGS. On the whole, 760 candidate lines with adjusted phenotypes and genotypes for 47 839 robust SNP were used. With a simple desktop computer, we obtained results which compared with previously published results on wheat genomic selection. As predicted by the theory, factors that are most influencing predictive ability, for a given trait of moderate heritability, are the size of the training population and a minimum number of markers for capturing every QTL information. Missing data up to 40%, if randomly distributed, do not degrade predictive ability once imputed, and up to 80% randomly distributed missing data are still acceptable once imputed with Expectation-Maximization method of package rrBLUP. It is worth noticing that selecting markers that are most associated to the trait do improve predictive ability, compared with the whole set of markers, but only when marker selection is made on the whole population. When marker selection is made only on the sampled training set, this advantage nearly disappeared, since it was clearly due to overfitting. Few differences are observed between the 15 prediction models with this dataset. Although non-parametric methods that are supposed to capture non-additive effects have slightly better predictive accuracy, differences remain small. Finally, the GEBV from the 15 prediction models are all highly correlated to each other. These results are encouraging for an efficient use of genomic selection in applied breeding programmes and BWGS is a simple and powerful toolbox to apply in breeding programmes or training activities.

Project description:Key messageWe evaluated genomic selection across five breeding cycles of bread wheat breeding. Bias of within-cycle cross-validation and methods for improving the prediction accuracy were assessed. The prospect of genomic selection has been frequently shown by cross-validation studies using the same genetic material across multiple environments, but studies investigating genomic selection across multiple breeding cycles in applied bread wheat breeding are lacking. We estimated the prediction accuracy of grain yield, protein content and protein yield of 659 inbred lines across five independent breeding cycles and assessed the bias of within-cycle cross-validation. We investigated the influence of outliers on the prediction accuracy and predicted protein yield by its components traits. A high average heritability was estimated for protein content, followed by grain yield and protein yield. The bias of the prediction accuracy using populations from individual cycles using fivefold cross-validation was accordingly substantial for protein yield (17-712 %) and less pronounced for protein content (8-86 %). Cross-validation using the cycles as folds aimed to avoid this bias and reached a maximum prediction accuracy of [Formula: see text] = 0.51 for protein content, [Formula: see text] = 0.38 for grain yield and [Formula: see text] = 0.16 for protein yield. Dropping outlier cycles increased the prediction accuracy of grain yield to [Formula: see text] = 0.41 as estimated by cross-validation, while dropping outlier environments did not have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy. Independent validation suggests, on the other hand, that careful consideration is necessary before an outlier correction is undertaken, which removes lines from the training population. Predicting protein yield by multiplying genomic estimated breeding values of grain yield and protein content raised the prediction accuracy to [Formula: see text] = 0.19 for this derived trait.

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Application of Genomic Selection at the Early Stage of Breeding Pipeline in Tropical Maize.

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