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A causal inference framework for cancer cluster investigations using publicly available data.

ABSTRACT: Often, a community becomes alarmed when high rates of cancer are noticed, and residents suspect that the cancer cases could be caused by a known source of hazard. In response, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that departments of health perform a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis to determine whether the observed cancer incidence is higher than expected. This approach has several limitations that are well documented in the existing literature. In this paper we propose a novel causal inference framework for cancer cluster investigations, rooted in the potential outcomes framework. Assuming that a source of hazard representing a potential cause of increased cancer rates in the community is identified a priori, we focus our approach on a causal inference estimand which we call the causal SIR (cSIR). The cSIR is a ratio defined as the expected cancer incidence in the exposed population divided by the expected cancer incidence for the same population under the (counterfactual) scenario of no exposure. To estimate the cSIR we need to overcome two main challenges: 1) identify unexposed populations that are as similar as possible to the exposed one to inform estimation of the expected cancer incidence under the counterfactual scenario of no exposure, and 2) publicly available data on cancer incidence for these unexposed populations are often available at a much higher level of spatial aggregation (e.g. county) than what is desired (e.g. census block group). We overcome the first challenge by relying on matching. We overcome the second challenge by building a Bayesian hierarchical model that borrows information from other sources to impute cancer incidence at the desired level of spatial aggregation. In simulations, our statistical approach was shown to provide dramatically improved results, i.e., less bias and better coverage, than the current approach to SIR analyses. We apply our proposed approach to investigate whether trichloroethylene vapor exposure has caused increased cancer incidence in Endicott, New York.

SUBMITTER: Nethery RC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8276584 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThere are limited resources providing postdonation conditions that can occur in living donors (LDs) of solid-organ transplant. Consequently, it is difficult to visualize and understand possible postdonation outcomes in LDs.ObjectiveTo assemble an open access resource that is representative of the demographic characteristics in the US national registry, maintained by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network and administered by the United Network for Organ Sharing, but contains more follow-up information to help to examine postdonation outcomes in LDs.Design, setting, and participantsCohort study in which the data for the resource and analyses stemmed from the transplant data set derived from 27 clinical studies from the ImmPort database, which is an open access repository for clinical studies. The studies included data collected from 1963 to 2016. Data from the United Network for Organ Sharing Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network national registry collected from October 1987 to March 2016 were used to determine representativeness. Data analysis took place from June 2016 to May 2018. Data from 20 ImmPort clinical studies (including clinical trials and observational studies) were curated, and a cohort of 11?263 LDs was studied, excluding deceased donors, LDs with 95% or more missing data, and studies without a complete data dictionary. The harmonization process involved the extraction of common features from each clinical study based on categories that included demographic characteristics as well as predonation and postdonation data.Main outcomes and measuresThirty-six postdonation events were identified, represented, and analyzed via a trajectory network analysis.ResultsThe curated data contained 10?869 living kidney donors (median [interquartile range] age, 39 [31-48] years; 6175 [56.8%] women; and 9133 [86.6%] of European descent). A total of 9558 living kidney donors with postdonation data were analyzed. Overall, 1406 LDs (14.7%) had postdonation events. The 4 most common events were hypertension (806 [8.4%]), diabetes (190 [2.0%]), proteinuria (171 [1.8%]), and postoperative ileus (147 [1.5%]). Relatively few events (n?=?269) occurred before the 2-year postdonation mark. Of the 1746 events that took place 2 years or more after donation, 1575 (90.2%) were nonsurgical; nonsurgical conditions tended to occur in the wide range of 2 to 40 years after donation (odds ratio, 38.3; 95% CI, 4.12-1956.9).Conclusions and relevanceMost events that occurred more than 2 years after donation were nonsurgical and could occur up to 40 years after donation. Findings support the construction of a national registry for long-term monitoring of LDs and confirm the value of secondary reanalysis of clinical studies.

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A causal inference framework for cancer cluster investigations using publicly available data.

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